☕️ Daily Market Talk | Mar 12, 2026
👋 Hi everyone! Grab your coffee ☕️ Trump says Iran war "close to ending" — but ships just got hit. Oracle crushed, CPI cooled, Tesla China +91%. Today's 3 big questions 👇
💬 Today's 3 Big Questions
1. Trump says Iran war "close to ending" — but Iran just fired on ships and set 3 conditions. Oil at $90+. Real peace or more volatility?
2. Oracle +10% on 44% cloud growth — AI trade back in full force? Or last gasp before reality check?
3. CPI at 2.4% (5-year low) — Good news or already outdated with oil surging?
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📊 Quick Market Recap
🛢️ Iran: War "Close to Ending" — But Ships Hit
Trump claims Iran's military is "neutralized" and war is nearing its end. But Iran just fired on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, sending WTI above $90 and pressuring US futures. Iran's president set 3 conditions for peace: recognition of rights, reparations from US/Israel, and guarantees against future aggression.
IEA steps in: Approving release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves — largest in history. US to release 172M barrels starting next week.
📈 Oracle Surges on AI Cloud Demand
$Oracle(ORCL.US) jumps over 10% after Q3 earnings beat. Cloud revenue up 44% to $8.9B. Backlog hits $553B. CEO says no additional debt financing planned for 2026 — addressing investor concerns about AI spending. Since 1986 IPO, stock up 257,656%.
📉 US Inflation Cools to 5-Year Low
February CPI: +2.4% YoY, Core CPI: +2.5% — both matching estimates, smallest increase in nearly 5 years. Housing costs moderate, rent increases smallest since 2021.
But markets yawn: Data seen as "background noise" — oil surge will hit March numbers. Citi: each 10% oil hike adds 0.2-0.3% to CPI. Fed rate cut odds now pushed to September.
🚗 Tesla China Sales Soar 91%
February wholesale sales hit 58,599 units. Low base effect from last year's Lunar New Year factory retooling. Up 91% YoY but down 15.2% MoM.
🇨🇳 China NPC Closes Today
14th National People's Congress wraps up this afternoon in Beijing. Voting on government work report, 15th Five-Year Plan, and several draft laws.
🇯🇵 Japan PM Hosts Iftar Dinner
PM Takaichi to meet with ambassadors from Islamic countries tonight in Tokyo. Expected to discuss de-escalating Iran tensions and securing safe passage through Strait of Hormuz.
📅 Earnings & Data Today
| Company/Data | Time | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| $Li Auto(LI.US) $LI AUTO-W(02015.HK) | Today | EV demand barometer — margins in focus |
| $Adobe(ADBE.US) | After close | AI integration into creative tools |
| US Jobless Claims | 9:30pm SGT | Labor market health check |
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