Overall, the two sides have just erupted into a round of intense direct military clashes. This is putting the fragile ceasefire agreement, which was hard-won, under severe test. The "Weekend of Major Firefights" that just passed: Over the just-passed weekend, the US and Iran experienced the most serious military escalation since signing the ceasefire memorandum:

Straits of Hormuz Incident: Iran recently reiterated its "sovereignty and absolute management rights" over the Straits of Hormuz, warning that commercial vessels passing without Iranian approval would be "very dangerous." Last Thursday and Saturday, cargo ships and a tanker flying the Panamanian flag were attacked and intercepted successively. The US side determined this was the work of Iran or its supported armed groups. US Military Retaliatory Airstrikes: In retaliation, the US Central Command dispatched fighter jets to carry out large-scale airstrikes on military targets within Iran or under its control, focusing on bombing its air defense sites, drone storage facilities, communication systems, and mine-laying facilities. Iranian Counterattack and Threats: Subsequently, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy claimed to have carried out attacks around US bases in places like Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation, and strongly warned that the US airstrikes had torn up the ceasefire agreement, "which will lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic negotiations." The Interest Calculations Behind Ceasefire Negotiations

Despite fighting fiercely, both sides have not completely overturned the negotiation table so far, each having their own strategic interests behind it: Oil Price Dividends and Economic Unshackling: Due to the previously signed 60-day provisional peace roadmap, the US for the first time in decades allowed Iran to settle some oil in US dollars. This directly pushed international oil prices down to around $70-73 per barrel. The US government needs low oil prices to combat domestic inflation; while Iran is extremely eager to use this to lift sanctions and unfreeze assets.

The Nuclear Issue Gambit: US Vice President Vance recently made tough remarks in an interview, claiming the US "holds all the good cards" in the negotiations because Iran's nuclear enrichment uranium processing capacity has been severely damaged in the conflict. The bait offered by the US is: if Iran abandons nuclear weapons ambitions long-term, the US is willing to fundamentally transform bilateral relations. Current Latest Developments

"Monday Cooling-off": After the weekend's fierce fighting, clashes between the two countries have temporarily ceased today. Senior leadership on both sides seems to be reassessing the boundaries, which is also the key external macro reason why US stocks and global commodities were able to take a breather and rebound today. Tuesday Qatar Talks Rumor Denied: Previously, US media reported that the US and Iran would hold an emergency closed-door technical meeting in Doha on Tuesday to resolve the Straits of Hormuz passage crisis. But just earlier today, Iran's Foreign Ministry came forward to deny that any technical working group meetings would be held this week, reiterating that the US must first pressure Israel's military actions on fronts like Lebanon. To sum up: the US and Iran are now like two opponents tied with bombs yet forced to sit at the same table to settle accounts. On one hand, the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars in assets, the lifting of restrictions on oil dollars, and the need for low oil prices are attracting both sides to continue implementing this 60-day peace roadmap. On the other hand, Iran's hardline blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, and the military clashes that could erupt at any moment, make this ceasefire agreement liable to become a worthless piece of paper at any time.