---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000781560.md"
description: "Morgan Stanley: ABF Substrate> Stronger & Earlier Cycle: The substrate pricing cycle is proving much stronger and arriving earlier than originally expected. Driven by capacity tightening and robust demand, gross margins are expanding across the industry.> Widening Supply Deficit: Updated bottom-up supply/demand modeling points to a 25% undersupply gap by 2030 (up from the previous estimate of ~22%), which increases confidence in long-term pricing and margin tailwinds.> Key Risk Factors: Main downside risks include weaker demand for PCs/servers, unexpected capacity expansion plans, constraints on T-glass, and the potential displacement of ABF substrates by CoWoP.> The Decline of PCs: Personal computers dominated the market in 2015, accounting for ~70% of global ABF substrate value. By 2025, that share shrank to ~23% and is forecasted to drop below 10% by 2030.> The Rise of AI & Infrastructure: Servers, AI GPUs, AI ASICs, and networking applications have risen from a combined ~10% market share in 2015 to ~60% in 2025. They are projected to command more than 80% of total market value by 2030.> ASIC Demand Trajectory: Hyperscalers are driving massive volume. Revised forecasts reflect steeper production curves for Amazon’s Trainium processors (2027–2030), Google’s TPU portfolio over the next 5 years, and a 36% higher Total Addressable Market (TAM) for China AI chips by 2030.> 2Q26 Price Surges: Supply chain checks indicate that during 2Q26, Nan Ya PCB (NYPCB) saw BT substrate pricing jump by ~20–30%, while ABF substrate pricing grew by roughly 10%.> Future Projections: Cost inflation and structural shortages are expected to push ABF substrate pricing up by 20–25% year-over-year (y/y) in CY26, 25%+ y/y in CY27, and up to 25–40% y/y in CY28 depending on the customer profile."
datetime: "2026-07-08T03:56:10.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000781560.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000781560.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000781560.md)
author: "[Equity research](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/2071818324550963200.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Morgan Stanley: ABF Substrate> Stronger & E…


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**