---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000787986.md"
description: "HBM can and largely is escaping the worst parts of the old DRAM $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) cycle, especially while AI/token demand stays strong. It doesn’t kill cycles completely, but it changes their character from violent boom-bust into a much longer, higher-quality growth cycle what analysts are calling an AI memory supercycle.The mainstream story blames commodity nature.All chips are basically the same: from price wars to hoarding inventory.That’s real, but it’s mostly an amplifier, not the root cause. The real structural problem is supply takes forever to adjust:- Building a new fab costs $10B+ and takes 2–3+ years.- Once you start, you can’t easily stop or pivot.- Demand can spike hard (new phones, cloud, pandemic, etc.) then slow down after 1–2 years.- By the time new supply arrives, the market is often already oversupplied, then prices crash and everyone loses money.- In downturns, nobody wants to cut production first (prisoner’s dilemma, especially Samsung in the past). So losses get maximized.This created the classic 2–3 year boom and bust pattern.@Captain's Treasure"
datetime: "2026-07-10T14:23:12.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000787986.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000787986.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000787986.md)
author: "[Marina Bay](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/26381638.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# HBM can and largely is escaping the worst parts of…


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- [DRAM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DRAM.US.md)
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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**