--- title: "【Market Predict & Win】US July CPI Tonight: Hike, Hold or Cut? 🔥" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000850632.md" description: "Jobs Say Cut. Inflation Says Don't.Two weeks ago, the market was betting the Fed would hike in September. Then Friday's jobs report landed: payrolls fell 23,000 against expected, with another 103,000 ..." datetime: "2026-08-12T10:32:36.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000850632.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000850632.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000850632.md) author: "[Captain's Compass](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/28290465.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # 【Market Predict & Win】US July CPI Tonight: Hike, Hold or Cut? 🔥 **Jobs Say Cut. Inflation Says Don't.** Two weeks ago, the market was betting the Fed would **hike** in September. Then Friday's jobs report landed: payrolls **fell 23,000** against expected, with another 103,000 shaved off prior months. **The hike came off the table** — and the argument flipped to whether a cooling labour market justifies **a rate cut** instead. Tonight at 8:30pm SGT, one release breaks the tie. ### **📖 First, learn the three CPI numbers you're calling** Same report, three different figures. Each one tells you something the other two don't: | Number | June | Expected | What it actually tells you | | ---------------- | ---- | -------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Headline** YoY | 3.5% | 3.4% | The whole shopping bill — closest to what your wallet feels | | **Core** YoY | 2.6% | 2.5% | Same bill minus food & fuel, which swing too hard on weather and oil. **This is the one the Fed watches** | | **Core** MoM | 0.0% | +0.2% | Just this month, not the past year — where momentum sits *right now* | 💡 Markets don't trade the number. They trade the **gap** between the number and what was expected. 3.4% is only "good news" because 3.4% is what everyone penciled in. * * * ### **🤔 Why this one release matters so much** The Fed has two jobs, and right now they point in opposite directions: | The Fed's mandate | Where it stands | Which way it argues | | ------------------ | ---------------------------------------------- | ------------------- | | **Max employment** | July payrolls **-23,000**, vs +83,000 expected | → Cut, and soon | | **Stable prices** | Headline **3.5%**, target is **2%** | → Don't you dare | Tonight's print decides which mandate wins the argument on 16 September. * * * ### **🇸🇬 And why it lands on Singapore Market** MAS runs monetary policy through the **exchange rate** (the S$NEER), not through a policy rate — so our rates are set largely by what happens over there. Which is why US rates are 3.50%–3.75% while our 6-month T-bill cut off at just **1.59%**. | Maybe you're holding... | Where it stands now | What tonight moves | | ---------------------------- | -------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------- | | **T-bills & fixed deposits** | 6M T-bill **1.59%** · best 6M FD ~**2.00%** | Your next rollover rate | | **S-REITs** | Priced off their yield spread over risk-free | Valuations, via rate expectations | | **USD cash & US stocks** | USDSGD is your invisible P&L | What your USD gains convert back into | * * * ### **🎯 How to play** **Three questions. One comment. Six characters.** **Q1 — Core CPI, year-on-year?***(June: 2.6% · Expected: 2.5%)* `A` 2.4% or lower `B` 2.5% `C` 2.6% or higher **Q2 — Headline CPI, year-on-year?***(June: 3.5% · Expected: 3.4%)* `A` 3.3% or lower `B` 3.4% `C` 3.5% or higher **Q3 — Core CPI, month-on-month?***(June: 0.0% · Expected: +0.2%)* `A` +0.1% or lower `B` +0.2% `C` +0.3% or higher 👉 Drop your three calls in the comments like this: `**1B 2B 3B**` ### **🏆 What you can win** - **Call all three right** → you split a **10,000 task coin** **prize pool.** 💰 - **Add your reasoning** → tell us **where wil Fed go on 16 Sep and why** (20+ words). The best takes split **5SGD stock cash coupons****.** 🎁 ⏰ **Calls lock at 8:30pm SGT tonight** — before the data drops. Comments after that don't count toward the pool. Answers reveal at 8:30pm. 🏅 Winners announced in tomorrow's recap, Thu 13 Aug. ✏️ Original and relevant only — copied, duplicate or directly AI-generated entries may be disqualified. Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏 ## Comments (38) - **NewUser_Unm6i · 2026-08-12T17:00:56.000Z**: 1C 2C 3CThe CPI report may have major impact for Fed’s next move. Now, CPI is around acceptable limits, and slightly bullish market structure still fine. - **Vt3 · 2026-08-12T12:47:59.000Z**: 📌1C 2C 3A Fed is expected to raise on 16/9 to reinforce inflation fighting success rates. In lieu of supply chain disruption and core inflation are driving this move to ease credibility of the Fed so to speak.🇺🇸🤺 - **hectic · 2026-08-12T12:27:58.000Z · 👍 1**: 1C 2C 3Ci think that the fed will hold rates steady because inflation from the Strait conflict will remain an issue and discourage rate cuts while job data pulls in the other direction, and that neither will be serious enough to tip the scale - **Fattycat · 2026-08-12T12:10:26.000Z · 👍 1**: 1B 2A 3BI expect CPI to come in either in line or even hotter it is proving that inflation is not cooling. That would give the Fed every reason to stay hawkish.The main reason : The Middle East conflict rages on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed plus the AI spending is running far too hot. Tha - **Jason88888 · 2026-08-12T12:00:39.000Z**: 1A 2A 3A - **NewUser_Eileen · 2026-08-12T11:59:33.000Z**: 1A 2A 3A - **dingdongbell · 2026-08-12T11:52:03.000Z · 👍 1**: 1A 2B 3AThe Fed will hold rates on 16th September. This is because it will be too early to see clearly if the trend is firmly towards inflation easing. - **Heroic Lifesaver · 2026-08-12T11:50:22.000Z · 👍 1**: 1A 2B 3AThe Fed will hold rates on 16th September. Even if inflation shows easing somewhat, the chair has made clear that he will rely on data closely and he will need to see a clear trend to get the other members on board prior to instituting a rate cut. - **Coolkid17 · 2026-08-12T11:40:36.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **relf · 2026-08-12T11:35:49.000Z**: 1A 2A 3A - **Rainwijaya · 2026-08-12T11:27:59.000Z**: 1b 2b 3b - **KC1028 · 2026-08-12T11:19:09.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **Wisely9 · 2026-08-12T11:17:22.000Z**: 1C 2C 3B - **LazyCat · 2026-08-12T11:05:26.000Z · 👍 1**: 1B 2B 3B - **Tonc · 2026-08-12T11:01:44.000Z · 👍 1**: 1A,2A,3AI’m expecting today’s CPI to come in relatively soft across the board. Gasoline prices barely changed last month, so energy shouldn’t add much inflationary pressure. More importantly, if AI-driven K-shaped divergence looks broadly similar in the U.S. and China, weaker demand across the lower - **Musher · 2026-08-12T11:01:43.000Z**: 1C 2B 3A - **SoHoGuY · 2026-08-12T10:59:37.000Z · 👍 1**: 1B 2B 3B. Fed will hold rates steady. no hike no cut. keep on wait and see as they want to balance the competing economic pressure. if it does hike, I suspect it will be a short one. - **Valenxis · 2026-08-12T10:54:36.000Z · 👍 1**: 1B 2B 3B.I think the Fed is likely to hold the current rates steady in September. I think Fed has to be in DT's good book, hiking rates is a no go, for now. - **Darkwinter · 2026-08-12T10:54:12.000Z · 👍 1**: 1A 1B 1CFed will reiterate 2% inflation target and may sound like a hawkish call but no action as there is political pressure but they cannot say so. Market will still be confused without a clear signal - **NewUser_fP210 · 2026-08-12T10:52:19.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**