--- title: "☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate Odds" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000878019.md" description: "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to..." datetime: "2026-08-31T03:02:19.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000878019.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000878019.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000878019.md) author: "[Captain's Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24747427.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # ☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate Odds Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to a coin flip. The shock rippled well beyond Wall Street, even pulling Nvidia and AMD lower despite blowout AI earnings. Over the weekend, the US struck Iran and Trump struck a major Venezuela oil deal. Let's dig in 👇 **💬 Warsh flipped rate-hike odds to a coin toss without committing to anything — is that discipline, or dodging the question?** ## 📊 Quick Recap — What Moved & Why ### 🇺🇸 US — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate Odds **🔑 Key Event:** Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first **Jackson Hole** keynote turned hawkish Friday: he said summer's cooler inflation readings don't show underlying trends have "meaningfully improved," and stopped short of forward guidance, saying he's "**committed to a discipline, not a decision**." Markets read it as a warning — September rate-hike odds jumped to about **50%** (a coin flip) from roughly a third beforehand. US indices closed mixed Friday ($S&P 500(.SPX.US) **-0.25%** to 7,711.76, $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) **-0.52%** to 26,402.42, $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) **-0.02%** to 53,559.99), though all three still logged a weekly gain. > @FaithAnchor : Warsh is playing it differently from Powell: fewer clues, no dots, no promises. The next rate move comes down to the data — and markets have to guess. **👀 Other to Watch** - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) → fell **-4.57%** Friday despite blowout Q2 revenue (**$96.2B**, +106% YoY), after disclosing **$530.5B** in off-balance-sheet commitments extending past 2032 and pausing a revenue-sharing program with AI cloud partners over antitrust concerns; Michael Burry calls it "circular financing" and has built a 21%+ short position across Nvidia and AI-capex peers. AMD fell **-2.3%** in sympathy. - **Optical/photonics selloff** → $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) sank **-10.3%** despite beating Q2 estimates, as investors questioned how slowly its Google deal will pay off; $AXT(AXTI.US) (**-12.4%**) and $Lumentum(LITE.US) (**-6.4%**) fell alongside it. - **Storage chips** → $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) each dipped less than 0.5%. - **AI mega-caps diverged from chip suppliers** → $Amazon(AMZN.US) (**+4.0%**), $Meta Platforms(META.US), and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) also rose Friday, while a federal judge permanently blocked the Pentagon's ban on Anthropic's products, ruling its "supply chain risk" designation unconstitutional. ### 🇸🇬 Singapore — STI Steady as the Real Story Is Macro, Not Local **🔑 Key Event:** $FTSE Straits Times Index(STI.SG) rose **0.28%** to 5,699.93 Friday, and was trading about **0.3%** higher near 5,715-5,720 Monday morning. Warsh's hawkish surprise favors banks (which benefit from higher-for-longer rates) over REITs, while $DBS(D05.SG), $OCBC Bank(O39.SG), and $UOB(U11.SG) traded steadily this week. > @FreeBuild : Fed Chair Warsh's latest comments suggest interest rates may stay higher for longer, with a September hike becoming a real possibility. For retail investors, this could mean short-term volatility in Singapore banks, REITs and high-dividend stocks, while cash and bonds become more attractive. **👀 Other to Watch** - **China's August PMI** → manufacturing PMI rose to **49.8** (from 49.2 in July, a third straight monthly improvement) though still in contraction; non-manufacturing held steady at 49.0. - $First Resources(EB5.SG) → H1 net profit jumped **57.4%** YoY to US$234.9M, with its interim dividend nearly doubled to S$0.08/share, payable Sept 10. ### 🇭🇰 HK/China — Alibaba Holds Its Bounce, Gold Miners Slide **🔑 Key Event:** $BABA-W(09988.HK) is trading around HK$112.70 Monday morning, down about **1.05%** intraday — still below its pre-placement levels even as last week's insider-buying bounce (Jack Ma, Tsai, and Wu buying a combined **HK$800M+**) has partially held. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) closed essentially flat Friday (**+0.07%** to 25,584.79, since Warsh's hawkish surprise landed after HK's close), then fell **0.64%** to around 25,420 Monday morning on a sector-specific gold-miner selloff, not a broad Fed-driven rout. **👀 Other to Watch** - **Gold miners** → $ZIJIN MINING(02899.HK) fell **4.6%**, $ZHAOJIN MINING(01818.HK) dropped **7.3%**, and Lao Feng Xiang fell **8.3%** Monday as gold pulled back from its highs. - **Shein** → confirmed to debut on the HKEX **Tuesday** under ticker 00625, with its final IPO price set today, valuing the fast-fashion giant at up to ~US$27B. - $CXMT(688825.SH) → China's top DRAM maker posted H1 revenue up **874%** YoY to RMB150.3B, swinging to a RMB77.6B profit from a year-ago loss. ### 🌍 Other - 🇮🇷🇺🇸 The US struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island Sunday; Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it retaliated against a US base. Iran and Oman reached an understanding on Hormuz passage, though Iran says it won't act on it unless the US moves first. - 🇻🇪🇺🇸 Trump announced what he called the "biggest oil deal in history" with Venezuela — majority control of **65B barrels** of proven reserves over a 25-year term. - 🌍 Gold pushed toward $4,450-4,500/oz this month, lifting $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX.US) roughly **36%** in August, as easing Hormuz tensions also helped oil recover. ## 📅 Key Events Tonight / This Week | **When (SGT)** | **What** | | --------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Today, Mon 31 Aug** | 🇨🇳 China August PMI released (49.8 manufacturing, 49.0 non-manufacturing) 🌍 G20 Finance Ministers meeting begins (through Tue) | | **Tue 1 Sept** | 🇭🇰 Shein's HKEX debut (00625) 🇨🇳 NIO & 🇺🇸 Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Credo earnings 🌍 G20 Digital Ministers meeting begins (through Wed) | | **Wed 2 Sept** | 🇺🇸 $Broadcom(AVGO.US) earnings after close | | **Thu 3 Sept** | 🇺🇸 Tesla Cybercab launch event, Austin 🇺🇸 Fed Governor Waller speaks on the economic outlook, 8:30pm SGT | | **Fri 4 Sept** | 🇺🇸 US August non-farm payrolls, 8:30am ET | 👇 Drop your take (20+ words) & click "Repost" to earn 288 Task Coins ✨ 🚫 No duplicates · ⏰ Deadline: Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM SGT Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏 ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SKHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHY.US.md) - [MRVL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRVL.US.md) - [AXTI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AXTI.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [COHR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COHR.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [D05.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/D05.SG.md) ## Comments (25) - **NewUser_zS0M8w · 2026-08-31T15:06:17.000Z**: A quiet start to the trading week with most moving sideways after the "damage" had already been done last Friday following the indication of a defensive stance from the FED in the coming months. Precious metals pulled back sharply while Bitcoin failed to break past 82k. I don't expect much t - **TheCollector · 2026-08-31T11:04:31.000Z**: With no dot plots and little guidance on rate hikes, traders place extra weight on Kevin Walsh speech. a hawkish hint can now cause a relatively huge wave in the market - **NewUser_CkrdqW · 2026-08-31T10:19:44.000Z**: Rate odds soared on Friday as stocks sold off after indication from Warsh that the possibility of rising interest rates have increased and that it may come soon than expected if they are not able to keep to the targeted 2% inflation. Stocks sold off broadly, including Nvidia, erasing almost most gai - **TheRaccoonAnalysis · 2026-08-31T10:06:41.000Z**: Warsh’s hawkish tone reinforces the Fed’s focus on persistent inflation rather than recent cooling data. The sharp rise in September hike expectations signals greater policy uncertainty and could keep Treasury yields elevated, strengthening the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive equities, partic - **Fattycat · 2026-08-31T08:29:03.000Z**: Today is last day of the month. Trade with care 😊.For your information, the latest Cut off yield for the 6 months Singapore T Bill issued on 1 sep 2026 is 1.6%…. Interest rates is trending up 🙄 - **dingdongbell · 2026-08-31T08:11:13.000Z · 👍 1**: It looks like Warsh is hawkish but is he really? He has to look credible as data still points to inflation being sticky. - **NewUser_ThinkSwim · 2026-08-31T07:11:24.000Z**: Increase rate will help banks and disfavored businesses that require to take loans or those who require to refinance soon. REIT most likely will be down in the short term but it is fall sharply will be a good time to get in DCA when everyone is fearful of REIT but might provide a good dividend play - **Valenxis · 2026-08-31T06:52:28.000Z**: STI so far very resilient, thanks to our anchoring banks and some blue chips. Reits are out of favour now, due to the hawking stance for interest rate. Chance to buy the dip hopefully? - **koolgal · 2026-08-31T06:42:36.000Z**: 🌟🌟🌟 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's unexpectedly hawkish Jackson Hole debut has fundamentally realigned market expectations, driving Wall Street's bets for a September interest rate hike above 60%.Just when investors were getting comfortable dreaming of aggressive rate cuts and endless liquidity - **Heroic Lifesaver · 2026-08-31T06:36:26.000Z**: Nothing surprising with Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. He has to state what is in line with the data and data does not point to inflation being tamed yet. - **Victor y · 2026-08-31T06:10:45.000Z**: Markets are becoming more selective. The long term AI and growth story remains intact but elevated valuations and rate uncertainty could keep volatility high.Quality, strong fundamentals and attractive entry points matter more than chasing momentum. The focus now shifts to Broadcom, Waller and Frida - **Darkwinter · 2026-08-31T05:40:29.000Z**: Warsh is just dodging the question and trying to shift it to the market. But market doesn’t seem to buy it - **LazyCat · 2026-08-31T05:09:17.000Z**: Any weakness in the REITs sector is an opportunity to consider for a long term investor. For many, they have or are giving up on REITs but one man's poison is anothers gourmet buffet. - **Tiffany lover · 2026-08-31T04:46:40.000Z · 👍 1**: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpected hawkish surprise in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, warning that inflation trends have not yet "significantly improved" and raising the probability of a September rate hike from about one-third to even odds.The ra - **Fattycat · 2026-08-31T04:41:05.000Z · 👍 1**: I just came to know today that The Straits Times Index (STI) is 60 years old already. It is originally began tracking the Singapore stock market on April 2, 1966, initially launched as the Straits Times Industrial Index (STII) with a base value of 100. 60 years old forever strong and wise index 🚀Tod - **Fattycat · 2026-08-31T04:26:06.000Z · 👍 2**: I am really excited that Shein is finally making its trading debut on HKEX this Tuesday, Sept 1 🎉I know that their IPO journey was far from smooth as it faced repeated regulatory hurdles, operational challenges and intense ESG scrutiny along the way. Listing in Hong Kong makes sense both politically - **Vt3 · 2026-08-31T04:07:01.000Z · 👍 2**: 📌 Will be watching the movement of a few stocks the effect after this week ended. In short, August wrapped up a much better week than last month across the board hitting downwards trend. Just read Jensen on X, USD400B has been invested in AI in the past 6 months alone, what else could fail it does n - **NewUser_Unm6i · 2026-08-31T04:03:21.000Z · 👍 1**: Out of many US Stocks lowers, Amazon(AMZN.US), Meta Platforms, and Alphabet US Stocks rose.Straits Times rose while local banks traded steadily. First Resources profit jumped with dividend doubled. China stocks shares lower and increase. Hope markets can improve and even in terms of employment. - **Ally · 2026-08-31T04:02:08.000Z · 👍 1**: It’s interesting to see Shein HKEX debut. Never would have guessed the fast fashion empire would IPO as I see consumers are becoming more thoughtful about their purchases and the impacts it has. - **Shyon · 2026-08-31T03:53:12.000Z · 👍 2**: Warsh’s hawkish tone definitely changes the short-term setup for me. I see the “discipline, not a decision” message as more of a data-dependent stance than dodging the question, but it does mean markets have less visibility heading into September. With rate-hike odds now around 50%, I’m expecting mo --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**