--- title: "【Market Predict & Win】US August CPI Tonight: Oil Says Hike, Core Says Wait" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000895643.md" description: "Oil Says Hike. Core Says Wait.Last month we talked about the jobs market collapsed, the September hike killed. Guess what — the collapse never happened. July's -23,000 payrolls has since been revised ..." datetime: "2026-09-11T10:53:03.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000895643.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000895643.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000895643.md) author: "[Captain's Compass](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/28290465.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # 【Market Predict & Win】US August CPI Tonight: Oil Says Hike, Core Says Wait **Oil Says Hike. Core Says Wait.** Last month we talked about the jobs market collapsed, the September hike killed. Guess what — **the collapse never happened.** July's -23,000 payrolls has since been revised all the way up to **+21,000**, and August then added **162,000 jobs against just 53,000 expected**. Meanwhile, **Brent crude blew through $100** and hit $107 on the Iran war, and Thursday's wholesale inflation print landed right on forecast. Put together, traders now price the odds of a rate hike next Wednesday at **more than 73%**. Tonight at 8:30pm SGT, the Fed gets its last piece of data before deciding. * * * #### **📖 First, learn the three CPI numbers you're calling** | Number | July (actual) | Expected | What it tells | | ---------------- | ------------- | --------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Headline YoY** | 3.4% | **3.4%** | The whole shopping bill — closest to what your wallet feels | | **Core YoY** | 2.5% | **2.4%** | Same bill minus food & fuel, which swing too hard on weather and oil. This is the one the Fed watches | | **Core MoM** | +0.2% | **+0.2%** | Just this month, not the past year — where momentum sits right now | *(Last round, all three landed exactly on consensus — the winning code was* `*1B 2B 3B*`*. Lightning rarely strikes twice.)* * * * #### **🤔 Why this one release matters so much** Two arguments are on the table, and tonight decides which one wins: | The argument | What's behind it | Where it points | | ----------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | | **The hike case** | Headline 3.4%, Brent above $100, wholesale prices +0.4%, and 162,000 new jobs | → Hike on 16 Sep | | **The hold case** | Core only 2.4%. An oil shock is a **supply** problem — rate hikes don't produce more barrels | → Hold and wait it out | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said there's still "work to do" on inflation. Governor Christopher Waller has signalled he'd rather hold. **2.4% is the dividing line.** Come in under it and the doves get their argument back. Print at or above it and the hike case hardens. * * * **🇸🇬 And why it lands on Singapore Market** MAS runs monetary policy through the exchange rate (the S$NEER), not through a policy rate — so our rates are set largely by what happens over there. And this time it's not only over there. **The same oil shock is already in our own basket:** Singapore's core inflation jumped to **2.0%** in July from 1.6%, with headline at **2.2%** — the highest in nearly two years, driven by electricity, gas and food. | If you're holding | Where it stands now | What tonight moves | | ---------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------- | | **T-bills & fixed deposits** | 6M T-bill cut off at **1.70%** on 10 Sep — a 2026 high, up from 1.59% when we ran this last month. Best 6M FD ~2.00% | Your next rollover rate | | **S-REITs** | Priced off their yield spread over risk-free | Valuations, via rate expectations | | **USD cash & US stocks** | USDSGD is your invisible P&L | What your USD gains convert back into | Notice your T-bill already moved **11 basis points in a month** without MAS touching anything. That's the transmission working in real time. * * * **🎯 How to play** **Three questions. One comment. Six characters.** **Q1 — Core CPI, year-on-year?***(July: 2.5% · Expected: 2.4%)*`A` 2.3% or lower `B` 2.4% `C` 2.5% or higher **Q2 — Headline CPI, year-on-year?***(July: 3.4% · Expected: 3.4%)*`A` 3.3% or lower `B` 3.4% `C` 3.5% or higher **Q3 — Core CPI, month-on-month?***(July: +0.2% · Expected: +0.2%)*`A` +0.1% or lower `B` +0.2% `C` +0.3% or higher 👉 Drop your three calls in the comments like this: `**1B 2B 3B**` **🏆 Call all three right** → you split a **10,000 task coin prize pool**. 💰 * * * ⏰ Calls lock at 8:30pm SGT tonight — before the data drops. **Mark your calendars!** **These are intraday arbitrage ETFs:** $Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US)$Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)$Direxion Semicon Bear 3X(SOXS.US)$Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US)$MicroSectors™ Gold -3X Inverse Lvrgd ETN(DULL.US)$Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil(UCO.US)$Pro Ultrshrt Crude Oil(SCO.US) ### Related Stocks - [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [SOXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXS.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [GDXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXU.US.md) - [DULL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DULL.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) ## Comments (36) - **ImSunny · 2026-09-12T04:42:23.000Z**: 1B 2A 3B - **win win · 2026-09-11T13:42:04.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **koolgal · 2026-09-11T13:15:08.000Z**: 1B, 2C, 3C - **新用戶_POEYmH · 2026-09-11T12:40:58.000Z**: 2B - **ShortWalk · 2026-09-11T12:22:53.000Z**: 1A 2B 3B - **TheCollector · 2026-09-11T12:09:13.000Z**: my choice is 1B 2C 3B - **hectic · 2026-09-11T12:06:18.000Z**: 1b 2b 3b - **NewUser_lsPdJ6teo · 2026-09-11T12:00:18.000Z**: 1A 2A 3B - **NewUser_6vN0VX · 2026-09-11T11:54:46.000Z**: 1B 2B 3C - **Psyduck · 2026-09-11T11:49:23.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **Dylan_94 · 2026-09-11T11:46:21.000Z**: 1A 2B 3B - **NewUser_ThinkSwim · 2026-09-11T11:37:01.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **Tonc · 2026-09-11T11:34:03.000Z**: 1A 2B 3B - **LazyCat · 2026-09-11T11:33:25.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **dingdongbell · 2026-09-11T11:32:03.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **Darkwinter · 2026-09-11T11:31:34.000Z**: 1B 2C 3A - **MJ26 · 2026-09-11T11:28:50.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **yzyanggg · 2026-09-11T11:26:21.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **Nazri · 2026-09-11T11:22:41.000Z**: 1B 2C 3B - **strikecal · 2026-09-11T11:20:41.000Z**: 1A 2B 3B --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**