--- title: "☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Hot CPI Pushes September Hike Odds Near 90%" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000898420.md" description: "US core CPI ran hot at +0.3% MoM (vs 0.2% expected), pushing September rate-hike odds from 69% to nearly 90% — Goldman's chief economist flipped his own call to a hike. The 10-year yield hit 4.957%, i..." datetime: "2026-09-14T03:06:13.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000898420.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000898420.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000898420.md) author: "[Captain's Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24747427.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # ☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Hot CPI Pushes September Hike Odds Near 90% US core CPI ran hot at +0.3% MoM (vs 0.2% expected), pushing September rate-hike odds from 69% to nearly 90% — Goldman's chief economist flipped his own call to a hike. The 10-year yield hit 4.957%, its highest since October 2023. Separately, HPE and Dell both soared over 12% after Oracle named them core suppliers for its FY2027 AI buildout. Let's dig in 👇 **💬 Hike odds just hit ~90% ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision — but consumer sentiment just cratered to a near-record low. Which signal matters more?** ## 📊 Quick Recap — What Moved & Why ### 🇺🇸 US — Hot CPI Pushes September Hike Odds Near 90% **🔑 Key Event:** US core CPI rose **+0.3%** MoM in August (vs 0.2% expected) — even as its year-over-year rate eased to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. September rate-hike odds jumped from 69% to **\~90%** (CME), and Goldman's chief economist flipped his own call from "no change" to a hike. The 10-year yield hit 4.957%, highest since October 2023. > @Fattycat : A rate hold is still possible, but today's hot monthly core number has significantly raised the odds of a hike next week. The Fed's Sept 16 decision just got much harder! **👀 Other to Watch** - $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) → **+12.44%** to $62.09, $Dell Tech(DELL.US) → **+11.98%** to $567.29, both after Oracle named them core suppliers for its $90-95B FY2027 AI capex plan; HPE also posted a record Q3 (revenue +34%) and raised its own guidance. - $Oracle(ORCL.US) → **-1.74%** to $150.28, giving back part of Wednesday's post-earnings pop as scrutiny grew over margin compression (cloud/software gross margin -6pts QoQ) and a capacity miss (0.85GW delivered vs. 1GW guided). - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is reportedly in talks to invest up to $10B as a cornerstone investor in Anthropic's IPO, which is targeting a ~$2 trillion valuation. - $Tesla(TSLA.US) teased an Oct 1 event to unveil its long-delayed next-gen Roadster (with an optional SpaceX cold-gas-thruster package) — genuine fresh news, though the stock barely moved on it (+0.52%). ### 🇸🇬 Singapore — STI Flat, Banks Buck the Calm **🔑 Key Event:** $FTSE Straits Times Index(STI.SG) closed Friday at 5,695.93, then held roughly flat this morning — **+0.1%** to around 5,701 as of publish time (~11am SGT). > @LazyCat : The weakness shown by the STI is a reminder that the index is mainly driven by the 3 banks. When they sneezed, the index catches a cold. **👀 Other to Watch** - All three local banks rose despite the flat index: $DBS(D05.SG) **+0.4%** to S$77.31, $OCBC Bank(O39.SG) **+0.70%** to S$31.82, $UOB(U11.SG) **+1.6%** to S$41.92 — higher-for-longer rate bets tend to support bank margins. ### 🇭🇰 HK/China — HSI Quiet Ahead of Shein's Index Debut **🔑 Key Event:** $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) closed Friday at 24,805.63, then **+0.27%** to around 24,873 this morning. **👀 Other to Watch** - $SHEIN-W(00625.HK) will be added to $Hang Seng Composite Index(0HSCI.HK) (and several sub-indexes) this Tuesday, Sept 15, via the exchange's fast-entry rule for newly-listed stocks. ### 🌍 Other - Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline (Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu) after weekend drone strikes — the same route that had been absorbing Hormuz-blocked barrels; Yanbu's inventory can reportedly sustain only 5-7 more days of exports. Brent closed the week up over 8%, back above $100. - South Korea's stock exchange launched after-hours trading for the first time today, a structural change being watched for its effect on retail participation. - The US Senate is set to vote on the CLARITY Act (crypto market-structure bill) this Tuesday, Sept 15. ## 📅 Upcoming Key Events | **When (SGT)** | **What** | | --------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Tue 15 Sept** | 🇨🇳 China retail sales, industrial output, fixed investment, house prices; Shein joins Hang Seng Composite Index; US Senate CLARITY Act vote; $Trip.com(TCOM.US) Q2 earnings (after US close) | | **Wed 16 Sept** | 🇺🇸 **FOMC rate decision** + Chair Kevin Warsh press conference | | **Thu 17 Sept** | 🇺🇸 Jobless claims, housing starts, Philly Fed index; 🇭🇰 unemployment rate; 🇨🇳 M2 | | **Fri 18 Sept** | 🇯🇵 **BOJ rate decision** | 👇 Drop your take (20+ words) & click "Repost" to earn 288 Task Coins ✨ 🚫 No duplicates · ⏰ Deadline: Sept 14, 2026, 11:59 PM SGT Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏 ### Related Stocks - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [00625.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00625.HK.md) - [D05.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/D05.SG.md) - [HPE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HPE.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [ORCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [ORCL-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL-D.US.md) - [O39.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/O39.SG.md) - [00HSI.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00HSI.HK.md) - [0HSCI.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/0HSCI.HK.md) ## Comments (35) - **升烟 · 2026-09-15T10:20:26.000Z**: The market has already priced in a 10 bps rate hike. The key may lie in the dot plot. Frankly, most realize that rate hikes can't solve imported inflation; this is more of a political statement. Warsh likely feels more pain than the market and investors. - **NewUser_oPJWOU · 2026-09-14T15:10:45.000Z**: Gold and reits continue to edge lower while banks close higher slightly after last week's continued drop in the Singapore market. We have also started to see higher interest rates and fd rates being offered in Singapore - a sign that rate hike will be arriving sooner than end of year? At least that' - **NewUser_zS0M8w · 2026-09-14T15:07:41.000Z**: We are seeing the start of sell off especially in the AI and hardware sector, as AI leaders like Altman calls for slowdown amidst the rapid AI development and growth over the past years. Recently, there have also been reports of slightly renowned former scientists from various AI companies calling o - **NewUser_hCn26 · 2026-09-14T11:51:09.000Z**: Hot core CPI (+0.3% MoM) virtually guarantees a September rate hike—sticky short-term inflation forces the Fed to prioritize pricing stability over cratering consumer sentiment. With 10-year yields nearing 5%, persistent inflation pressures continue to overshadow broader macroeconomic concerns. - **koolgal · 2026-09-14T11:42:58.000Z**: 🌟🌟🌟Guess which are the top 2 performing banks in the world according to Forbes' latest list? It is our Singapore banks $OCBC Bank(O39.SG)- Number 1 and $DBS(D05.SG)- Number 2! It is simply amazing that they can beat $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US). There were 500 banks evaluated out of 89 countries. As a - **Fattycat · 2026-09-14T10:45:28.000Z**: Bitcoin holds well as president Trump officially agrees to new bipartisan crypto Clarity Act ethics provisions.☺️President Trump's agreement to the ethics provisions in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is widely viewed as a major positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency industry.☺️Watch out for - **Fattycat · 2026-09-14T10:38:12.000Z**: Gold is bearish now. 4300 ….. Market may have priced in rate hikes. - **Tonyoh2011 · 2026-09-14T10:31:32.000Z**: In local terms banks continue to soar and REITs will suffer. However banks are already at ATH so the strategy is to continue to DCA into a diversified bag of REITs. Rate will likely taper down end of 2027. - **TheRaccoonAnalysis · 2026-09-14T09:59:09.000Z**: August’s core CPI reading indicates persistent underlying price pressure, despite the annual rate easing to its lowest level in years. The upside monthly surprise materially strengthened expectations of a September rate hike, while the shift in Goldman’s forecast reinforces the more hawkish policy o - **Dacai · 2026-09-14T09:41:21.000Z**: All my other stocks especially SGX are dropping in value. Luckily my banks are still holding up. This is called diversification of risks. - **0wMYbg · 2026-09-14T09:08:24.000Z**: Many things happening now and the market is pricing in multiple events.The recent comments by Sam Altman, Dario, Elon Musk for AI to “slowdown”, FOMC this week, inflation from Iran war and the bond yield rising.Looks like we are in for a tumultuous time 😞 - **LazyCat · 2026-09-14T08:04:13.000Z**: Am secretly enjoying the discounts for REITs unlike the past where rate hikes makes me nervous and unsettled. At the start of the year, many were wondering if the REIT boats would come back to port to pick them up. Are they still buying the ticket to board? For those onboard, are they still chilling - **FaithAnchor · 2026-09-14T07:25:59.000Z**: $DBS(D05.SG)Higher rates for longer? DBS could enjoy the NIM boost short term. But if the Fed stays tough, credit risks creep higher. September’s report could set the tone. - **NewUser_CkrdqW · 2026-09-14T07:19:11.000Z**: Today is going to bleed for most stocks, especially the tech and AI sector. Rate hike odds have skyrocketed to almost a 90% probability since last week's release of hot PPI and CPI. Honestly a great opportunity to grab fundamentally solid stocks like Nvidia, which has a favourable forward p/e ratio - **Valenxis · 2026-09-14T07:14:30.000Z**: Rate hike soon. Reits beaten down. US index minor dip after weekend. Whether rebound or not, depends on the Fed's stance if there will more hikes along the way - **dingdongbell · 2026-09-14T06:28:33.000Z · 👍 1**: Why only now conveniently would you want to ‘slow down’ AI when you are about to launch your IPO? Is it to benefit your company so that others cannot catch up as well as look ‘morally upright’ so that others cannot compete when regulations are placed (if they do) henceforth keeping your company ahea - **Heroic Lifesaver · 2026-09-14T06:23:01.000Z · 👍 1**: Quite the narrative for Anthropic to come up with that note at the weekend as yields are at the levels they are at as well as going into the Fed decision and with oils and ME at headwinds. How price reacts to these will be telling. - **relf · 2026-09-14T06:18:47.000Z · 👍 1**: Lots of news to unpack. From US CPI to AI "fears" and the upcoming Fed mtg. Maybe a good way is to chill and not check the markets for a week. Haha. - **ShortWalk · 2026-09-14T05:58:39.000Z · 👍 1**: Slightly hotter CPI doesnt affect me as it only affects short term. Nevertheless, it is still good to take note of the temporary rally before the eventual dips.Still good to see the STI rising as a result of SG Banks carry after the impact of hotter CPI. Shows that you should never keep all eggs in - **win win · 2026-09-14T04:53:05.000Z · 👍 2**: War on Iran, these two countries keep fighting to each other, they never bother their neighbouring countries, especially Mr TACO, always say this and that --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**