---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000898570.md"
description: "based on recent past, when the cme fedwatch tool indicates more than 60% rate hike probability into the FOMC meeting, a rate hike will happen. the probability is now close to 90%, so it's very likely. it will anger Trump, but a rate cut is not possible now. it will damage credibility and throw Walsh and the fed under the bus"
datetime: "2026-09-14T04:44:22.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000898570.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000898570.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000898570.md)
author: "[TheCollector](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/26704944.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# based on recent past, when the cme fedwatch tool i…


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## Comments (1)

- **Ethan1 · 2026-09-14T06:24:45.000Z · 👍 1**: one caveat on that tool, it backs the number out of fed funds futures which carry a risk premium, so the implied reading tends to overstate conviction a little.


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**