--- title: "【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000902007.md" description: "At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do..." datetime: "2026-09-16T07:46:57.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000902007.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000902007.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000902007.md) author: "[Captain's Compass](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/28290465.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # 【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come? **At 2:00am SGT tonight**, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by **25 bp**, to the **3.75%–4.00%** range. For the past two years, the question was “*when do rates finally come down”*. Tonight, the Fed is expected to answer in the opposite direction. And the Fed doesn't just announce one number, it also reveals forecast of where rates go from here. So, tonight reaches your T-bill and fixed deposit rollovers, the SORA that most Singapore home loans are now priced off, every S-REIT on the board, the three local banks, and whatever USD you're sitting on. Keep reading, and rewards awaits. 🎁 * * * #### **📖 Three Decisions at 2am** | What happens | Where it stands now | | ------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **The decision** | 25bp hike to **3.75%–4.00%** is ~90% priced. Held at 3.50%–3.75% since July. | | **The vote split** | July was **9–3** — three federal officials wanted to hike immediately. That's the most divided in about a decade. | | **The dot plot** | June's showed **9 of 18** expecting a hike within the year. Deutsche Bank thinks December brings one more | * * * #### 🎤 A Speech Even More Important At 2:30am, Fed Chair **Kevin Warsh** takes questions, and **how Warsh explains the inflation** matters: If Warsh leans on oil, he's effectively calling this a supply shock — which is a softer, more dovish position, because rate hikes don't produce more barrels. If he frames it as broad price pressure, that's harder. **The hike matters less than the reasoning behind it.** * * * #### **🤔 Will the 2018 scenario repeat itself?** | December 2018 | Today | | ------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | | Fed hiked Wednesday, Quadruple Witching that week | Fed tonight, BoE Thursday, BoJ + Quad Witching Friday | | Hike was >70% priced | Hike was ~90% priced | | Vote was **10–0**, completely unified | July vote **9–3**, division at a ten-year high | | S&P fell **7.05%** on the week | ? | * * * #### **🎯 How to play** **Three questions. One comment. Six characters.** **Q1 — The Rate decision?** *(Now: 3.50%–3.75%)* `A` Hold, no change `B` Hike 25bp, to 3.75%–4.00% `C` Hike 50bp or more **Q2 — How many dissenting votes?** *(July: 3 dissents)* `A` 0–2 `B` Exactly 3 `C` 4 or more **Q3 — In tonight's dot plot, how many officials want at least one more hike in 2026?** *(June: 9 of 18 saw a hike this year)* `A` 0–6 `B` 7–11 `C` 12 or more 👉 Drop your three calls in the comments like this: `**1B 2B 3B**` * * * #### **🏆 Participation Rewards** - **Call all three right** → you split a **10,000 task coin** prize pool. 💰 - **Add your anlysis** → tell us this (20+ words): **what's your plan about the hike — and what would change your mind?** The best takes split **5 SGD stock cash coupons**. 🎁 - No right answer. We're reading the thinking, not the conclusion. ⏰ Calls lock at **11:59pm SGT tonight** — before the decision. ✏️ Original and relevant only — copied, duplicate or directly AI-generated entries may be disqualified. * * * **⏭ Up next** Thursday the Bank of England. Friday the Bank of Japan — and Quadruple Witching, when quarterly options, futures and index options all expire together. Three central banks and an expiry in four days. Whatever happens at 2am, it isn't finished on Thursday morning. Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏 ### Related Stocks - [DBK.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBK.DE.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## Comments (88) - **NewUser_Unm6i · 2026-09-16T17:07:07.000Z**: Q1C Q2CYesterday, Brent crude fell approximately 1.6% to around $107 per barrel, while WTI dropped about 2.5% to around $103. Saudi Arabia is increasing crude supplies via Oman has temporarily eased market concerns regarding major supply disruptions in the Middle East. Reuters survey Goldman Sachs, - **Victor y · 2026-09-16T16:00:08.000Z**: 1B 2B 3B - **Yoopie · 2026-09-16T15:52:38.000Z**: 1C 2C 3C - **Yoopie · 2026-09-16T15:51:15.000Z**: 1C B3 1C - **NewUser_ThinkSwim · 2026-09-16T15:20:07.000Z**: 1C 2C 3CThe hike will affect the market if they want a fast down then slow up all the way to election will also be a good but unpopular choice by taking money out of the system by tightening (QT) then go with the popular of keep allowing the yield at high level. - **KellyWML · 2026-09-16T15:19:47.000Z**: 1A 2B 3BFed will hold the rate unchanged and no rate hikes due to upcoming midterm elections and the volatility in bond markets. Sometimes when you are in dilemma situation, it is better to pause, standstill, no action is require just as to please everyone. - **kailash · 2026-09-16T15:19:20.000Z**: ​1B 2B 3BMy take: The 25bp hike is already mostly priced in by the market. However, stubborn inflation metrics mean the Fed might keep the door open for further tightening. If the rhetoric turns overly hawkish, short-term volatility in tech and S-REITs is expected, which would change my bullish stan - **FaithAnchor · 2026-09-16T15:00:27.000Z**: 1B 2C 3CI’m leaning 25bp, but keeping powder dry. If inflation cools sharply or jobs crack, I’d quickly rethink the hike call. - **LazyCat · 2026-09-16T14:45:43.000Z**: 1B 2B 3BI plan to add more of my shortlisted REITs and/or REIT ETF if the market starts dipping tomorrow. This is because some are already at my normal accumulation zone and approaching the aggressive add zone. - **AetherCore · 2026-09-16T14:40:28.000Z**: 1B 2A 3BI think 25bp is the most likely call tonight, but what matters more is whether this is a one time adjustment or the start of more hikes.I would not change my portfolio much since 25bp is already widely expected. I would keep some money in T bills and short term deposits, stay careful with RE - **CLuo · 2026-09-16T14:30:13.000Z**: 1B 2B 3BI am not changing my portfolio just because of one hike. The 25bp move looks mostly priced in already, so I care much more about what comes next. I will be watching the dot plot and how Warsh talks about inflation. If the Fed sees inflation spreading beyond energy and a clear majority starts - **Joshseah · 2026-09-16T14:19:42.000Z**: 1B 2C 3B - **Jake_L_Kelly · 2026-09-16T14:16:15.000Z**: 1A 2B 3BMidterm elections is coming to town, a rate hike by Fed will be unfavourable for Trump and the republicans. Nothing is free, there is always a price to pay. Good gesture like, by leaving the rate unchanged will be a good returning favour, although all data shown pointing to the opposite dir - **Darkwinter · 2026-09-16T14:10:12.000Z**: 1B 2A 3AThe hike won’t change much fundamentally as it’s already priced in. However if the war escalates or the oil continues not to flow out, or the mid term election turns the president into a lame duck, then the fundamentals have changed and requires a relook - **hectic · 2026-09-16T13:54:40.000Z**: 1b 2a 3b - **紅不讓 · 2026-09-16T13:52:08.000Z**: 1B2A3A A 25bps rate hike, which satisfies both the Fed's stance and Trump. Whether further hikes will occur depends on the specific situation at that time, so officials are not providing clear guidance now. - **shenigami88 · 2026-09-16T13:51:28.000Z**: 1B 2A 3C - **Estherick · 2026-09-16T13:48:40.000Z**: 1B 2B 3BThe dissenting voice & economic data all point to a certain increase, but at the start, a moderate one to test the ground for the new chief. When grounds become more certain there will be compelling forces to raise further. In light of worsening & tension in global trades, aggressive - **swq-HengOngHuat · 2026-09-16T13:45:26.000Z**: 1A 2A 3AMy plan is Hold. I think Fed is done hiking and will stay defensive — long quality, short duration risk, holding cash for any dip. I’m positioned for a hawkish pause, not a real hike. What would change my mind is a hot CPI or strong wage print tomorrow morning before the decision, then I’d - **VincentRaja · 2026-09-16T13:44:33.000Z**: 1B 2A 3CMuch needed hike after 3 years means business cost will increase and growth slow down expected. However it was tracked and expected for a while and already priced in the market. Expecting no big impact due to this decision in the market. --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**