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With a 25bp hike roughly 90% priced in, market attention pivots entirely to Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Framing inflation as broad-based signals prolonged tightening, while attributing it to oil suggests a softer stance. In a fractured Fed, the Chair’s narrative will dictate market direction far more than the rate move itself.

My Plan: Stay defensive—allocate toward short-term T-bills and high-yield cash to lock in peak yields. 

What Changes My Mind: If Chair Kevin Warsh frame this hike as a temporary supply-driven "one-off adjustment" rather than a prolonged tightening cycle, triggering a risk-on pivot.