1B 2B 3B

My plan about the hike: I’m positioning for a 25bp hike because the Fed still has to balance persistent inflation against the risk of overtightening. A 50bp move would require a much stronger inflation shock, while a hold could look too cautious if price pressures remain elevated.

For dissents, I’m leaning toward exactly 3 because the July meeting already showed a meaningful hawkish minority, and another 25bp hike may not eliminate that disagreement. For the dot plot, I expect 7–11 officials to support at least one additional 2026 hike—enough to reflect ongoing inflation risks, but not enough to signal broad conviction for an aggressive tightening cycle.

What would change my mind: A significant upside surprise in inflation would make me more hawkish, particularly on the dot plot. Conversely, a sharp deterioration in employment or clear evidence of weakening demand would make me reconsider the hike and expect fewer officials to support another increase.