---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000902504.md"
description: "Possible Fed outcomes today:1/ Bull case scenario:  Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent).   One-and-done.  10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities.2/ Moderate case scenario:  Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms.  10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities.3/ Bear case scenario:   Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes.   Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance.  10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities."
datetime: "2026-09-16T13:10:22.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000902504.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000902504.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000902504.md)
author: "[Gary Black Tracker](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17077344.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Possible Fed outcomes today:1/ Bull case scenario:…


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**