---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000922295.md"
description: "Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws• For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y.• I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y.• The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September.• The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y.• I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal.• U.S. extended lead times point to stronger demand. I estimate about 40% of deliveries are in the U.S. Since last fall, Model Y and Model 3 lead times have essentially doubled, going from around 5-6 weeks to about 10 weeks. That’s an average across all trims. $Tesla(TSLA.US)Source: Gene Munster"
datetime: "2026-10-01T20:55:42.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000922295.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000922295.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000922295.md)
author: "[Gene Munster](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/21804449.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter…


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**