--- title: "β˜•οΈ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk β€” Hot CPI Doubles October Hike Odds" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000939002.md" description: "September CPI came in hotter than anyone wanted, and the market's odds of an October hike doubled within the hour. At home, the STI is down about a percent. Let's dig in πŸ‘‡πŸ’¬ With an October hike now cl..." datetime: "2026-10-15T02:45:29.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000939002.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000939002.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000939002.md) author: "[Captain's Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24747427.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # β˜•οΈ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk β€” Hot CPI Doubles October Hike Odds September CPI came in hotter than anyone wanted, and the market's odds of an October hike doubled within the hour. At home, the STI is down about a percent. Let's dig in πŸ‘‡ **πŸ’¬ With an October hike now close to a coin flip, are you buying this dip or waiting it out?** ## πŸ“Š Quick Recap β€” What Moved & Why ### πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US β€” A Hot CPI Puts October Back in Play **πŸ”‘ Key Event:** September CPI rose **3.7%** against 3.6% expected and core hit **2.6%**, both the highest this year. CME's odds of an October hike jumped from **21.6% to 43.7%**. **Five-year yields hit a 2007 high before bonds rallied back in the afternoon.** > @dhighstakes : Oracle is down on rate-hike expectations after CPI came in hotter than estimated, and knee-jerk reactions like this form good buying windows. **πŸ‘€ Other to Watch** - $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) β†’ **-1.88%**, $S&P 500(.SPX.US) **-1.11%**, $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) **-0.09%**. - $Coreweave(CRWV.US) β†’ **-15.5%** as its 2032 bonds fell below 80 cents and yielded over 15%. $Nebius(NBIS.US) **-10.1%**, $Oracle(ORCL.US) **-8.8%**. - $ASML(ASML.US) beat and raised guidance, warning supply will trail demand through 2028 β€” and still fell **-3.9%**. TSMC reports before the US open today. > @Shyon : Neocloud debt concerns are shaking the AI infrastructure sector; I am protecting my capital while keeping faith in the long-term opportunity. ### πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬ Singapore β€” The STI Gives Back a Week of Gains **πŸ”‘ Key Event:** $FTSE Straits Times Index(STI.SG) is down about **-0.9%** near 5,375 this morning, after Wednesday's **-0.1%** close at 5,423. $DBS(D05.SG) is off about **-1.3%** and $OCBC Bank(O39.SG) **-1.0%**, while $UOB(U11.SG) is flat. > @TheInvestingIguana : Wall Street fell after SGX had closed, so today is the first Singapore session to meet the worst US session since July. **πŸ‘€ Other to Watch** - **S-REITs** β†’ $Lion-phillip S-Reit(CLR.SG) is at 0.749, another 52-week low. Higher-for-longer rates keep doing the damage. > @LazyCat : I have been holding my horses and watching the CLR REIT ETF; it is steadily approaching the level I am interested in. ### πŸ‡­πŸ‡° HK/China β€” AI Hardware Leads a Broad Selloff **πŸ”‘ Key Event:** $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) is down about **-1.1%** near 24,040 this morning, after Wednesday's **-0.13%** close at 24,314. $YOFC(06869.HK) is off about **-9.9%**, $Z.AI(02513.HK) **-8.6%** and $ZJ INNOLIGHT(03308.HK) **-5.3%**. ### 🌍 Other to Watch - πŸ“‰ The Fed's Beige Book said every district is now feeling higher oil prices, with diesel costs passing down supply chains. - 🏦 Bowman and Daly both said there is no rush to move in October, while Collins still expects another hike this year. - ⚠️ Gartner forecast $3.5T of AI infrastructure write-downs by 2030, and said 80% of emerging cloud providers may fail. > @Darkwinter : Any hawkish words from the Fed might not translate into credible action, but any dovish words will probably be true. ## πŸ“… Upcoming Key Events | **When (SGT)** | **What** | | -------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Thu 15 Oct** | **TSMC Q3 results, before the US open** πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ PPI, retail sales and jobless claims, 8:30pm | | **Fri 16 Oct** | πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Industrial production and import prices πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Euro area final HICP | πŸ‘‡ Drop your take (20+ words) & click "Repost" to earn 288 Task Coins ✨ 🚫 No duplicates Β· ⏰ Deadline: Oct 15, 2026, 11:59 PM SGT Not investment advice, just market talk πŸ™ ### Related Stocks - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [CRWV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRWV.US.md) - [NBIS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NBIS.US.md) - [ORCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [ASML.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASML.US.md) - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) ## Comments (71) - **koolgal Β· 2026-10-15T21:33:46.000Z**: Is $STI ETF(ES3.SG)A Buy?🌟🌟🌟$STI ETF(ES3.SG)isn't a high flying tech fund and it won't give you 10x crypto thrills overnight. This ETF is the quintessential defensive workhorse of the Singapore economy.Lately the index has experienced a sharp reality check. After climbing to a historic roaring rec - **NewUser_hCn26 Β· 2026-10-15T13:39:05.000Z**: Hot September CPI data underscores sticky inflation, driving rate hike odds higher and triggering short-term yield spikes. High-multiple tech names face knee-jerk valuation compression, yet secular AI tailwinds remain intactβ€”making selective dip-buying in oversold, high-conviction infrastructure lea - **Fattycat Β· 2026-10-15T12:40:25.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 2**: Super hot PPI print of 1.3% is viewed negatively. Bad bad data 🫣 - **Fattycat** (2026-10-15T12:46:47.000Z): A rate hike becomes a real possibility. When inflation picks up again and input prices jump 1.3% in one month while consumer demand remains strong, the risk that inflation spirals higher grows. Confir - **LazyCat** (2026-10-15T13:38:48.000Z): energy and fuel....self inflicted pain which spread to rest of world. Hai..... - **LazyCat Β· 2026-10-15T11:49:58.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: It's a rough day for the market today where Korea, Japan and Taiwan experienced severe correction. With the CPI came in hotter than expected, market bumped up the expectations on fed tightening and rate hikes. As the market has repeatedly been questioning the ROI of AI capex of late, the CPI figure - **NewUser_ThinkSwim Β· 2026-10-15T10:47:02.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: The market was generally red yesterday and I will sit out if the stocks that I wanted to buy just broke lower trends of months (sofi) because even if the stock market might rebound today it is still at a trend of weakness. So risk reward might need to fit the needs. DYOR and DCA slowly if do not wan - **Holmas Β· 2026-10-15T09:39:33.000Z**: goid - **NewUser_X Β· 2026-10-15T09:01:26.000Z**: What - **NewUser_zS0M8w Β· 2026-10-15T07:57:51.000Z**: October Hike odds are back on as CPI came in hotter than expected and the markets certainly did not like that. Almost every major market started selling off last night and today, causing further pain for those holding stocks on the optical sector that has already been facing downwards pressure. - **The Β· 2026-10-15T07:34:26.000Z**: Now, CPI on September rose more than the expected percentage and the core hit highest this year. There is an October hike for CME. Five-year yields hit 2007 high before afternoon.There are decline for US stocks. Singaporea stocks also decrease. Local stock for Lion Phillip S-Reit is positive, but h - **dingdongbell Β· 2026-10-15T07:31:40.000Z**: It’s good to have a market purge and let the bears have their day. Because there are too many of them around and until they become bulls, up we go again! - **Blinkfans:) Β· 2026-10-15T06:57:09.000Z**: πŸ±πŸ“ˆ Market Rotation: Hasbro, IAU and Netflix Take the Spotlight!I’m watching a possible market rotation as investors look beyond high-growth AI stocks and consider defensive assets. 🎯 Hasbro could benefit if investors favour established consumer brands, although inflation may pressure household spend - **optionspuppy Β· 2026-10-15T06:54:08.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: πŸ“Š I’m watching TSMC’s Q3 earnings closely because they can give us clues about whether AI demand is still strong. If companies like Nvidia and other AI leaders continue spending heavily on chips, semiconductor stocks could benefit. However, hotter inflation and rising producer prices may keep intere - **NewUser_5JaG2B Β· 2026-10-15T06:50:03.000Z**: Market now all many reds. Hope will improve when time comes. - **DLCuration Β· 2026-10-15T06:22:15.000Z**: insightful! - **Wisely9 Β· 2026-10-15T05:31:22.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: Time to load up on high quality stocks. Buy in small tranches as it is not possible to time where are the lowest prices to buy. Long term AI theme as high growth drivers does not change with macro data like CPI. Business earnings still the most important criteria. - **Heroic Lifesaver Β· 2026-10-15T05:12:28.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: Haha….CPI came in hot. As weird as this sounds, I believe this will allow the market to really shake out weak holders and set itself up for a year-end rally. - **Fattycat Β· 2026-10-15T05:05:48.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 7**: Longbridge cafe 😍 - **Vt3** (2026-10-15T05:12:38.000Z): They just offered me 50% off for 1 year but problem is that it isn’t near my home, otherwise every day I go there to chill, how is the taste compared to luckin? - **Fattycat** (2026-10-15T05:19:42.000Z): Wanted to buy a cup of coffee but just recovered from gastric pain. 2 weeks later I come back for the coffee. - **Vt3** (2026-10-15T05:20:58.000Z): Aiyo u just go there for β˜•οΈ? - **Darkwinter Β· 2026-10-15T04:59:06.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: Oil is up, inflation went up, but oil remains up doesn’t mean inflation continues to be up. Inflation may just remain flat subsequently - **KXN Β· 2026-10-15T04:40:58.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 1**: Inflation came in hotter than expected. We still have PPI and Job Reports today, hoping for good news today and may the current volatility be short-lived l - **Fattycat** (2026-10-15T05:11:31.000Z): Fed mandates is to maximise employment and control inflation. PPI likely to be bad too. 99.99% 🀣. Left job report which I think little help to Fed decision as inflation is trending up. - **FaithAnchor Β· 2026-10-15T04:25:28.000Z Β· πŸ‘ 2**: $Coreweave(CRWV.US)CRWV plunged 15.5% as hotter inflation revived rate fears and its 2032 bonds sank below 80 cents, yielding nearly 15%. Bondholders face mark-to-market losses and credit risk; shareholders face pricier refinancing, potential dilution and greater downside if AI returns fail to justi --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**