---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000944757.md"
description: "I’ve long felt that a $SpaceX(SPCX.US) - $Tesla(TSLA.US) deal is inevitable since Elon controls 48% of $SpaceX(SPCX.US) as-converted shares and 10.5% of TSLA shares. Since any deal would be $SpaceX(SPCX.US) stock for $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock the deal will not be as compelling as many on X believe, given the massive dilution and all-equity economics.  I expect a SPCX offer price in the neighborhood of $420/TSLA share, and as in most stock-for-stock deals will likely get arbitraged down given the approximate 6-12 months needed between a deal announcement and deal close.  I would expect the combined SPCX/TSLA multiple of EBITDA or EPS to follow the acquiring company’s multiple, which in this case is $SpaceX(SPCX.US) and is lower than TSLA’s FY’27 EV/Ebitda multiple (TSLA 72.6x, SPCX 29.4x).  All told, I don’t expect a huge windfall for TSLA shareholders on a SPCX/TSLA stock-for-stock deal, although the announcement itself would be positive for TSLA stock."
datetime: "2026-10-19T14:45:30.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000944757.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000944757.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000944757.md)
author: "[Gary Black Tracker](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17077344.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# I’ve long felt that a $SpaceX(SPCX.US) - $Tesla(TS…


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## Comments (2)

- **NewUser_a9MuOH · 2026-10-19T21:36:29.000Z**: great
- **successful · 2026-10-19T17:36:37.000Z**: K


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**