--- title: "TSLA Earnings Challenge — Guess the close and win cash!" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000948003.md" description: "$Tesla(TSLA.US) reports Q3 FY2026 after the US close, Wednesday 21 Oct— the numbers land around 04:30 SGT Thursday morning, with the call at 05:00. ⏰ETFs:$TSLA 2X Long ETF(TSLL.US) $TSLA 2X Short ETF(TSDD.US) 📍 Wh..." datetime: "2026-10-21T10:02:24.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000948003.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/100000000948003.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/100000000948003.md) author: "[Captain's Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24747427.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # TSLA Earnings Challenge — Guess the close and win cash! $Tesla(TSLA.US) reports Q3 FY2026 **after the US close tonight** — the numbers land around **04:05 SGT Thursday morning**, with the call at **05:30 SGT**. ⏰ Here is what makes this one unusual. Q3 deliveries of **486,500** are already public and beat expectations. Energy storage of **13.7 GWh** is out too. So revenue is more or less known before Musk says a word. **One line is still sealed: gross margin.** That single number is what the entire reaction hangs on. 🔥 And it arrives on the strangest possible day. This morning SpaceX posted its first-ever profit — **US$4.4B on US$14.6B of revenue** — and Musk immediately confirmed that special committees are weighing a **Tesla–SpaceX merger**. Tonight's call is the first time he takes questions about it. #### **🚦Tesla earnings in three scenarios** Consensus gross margin is **17.9%**. Q2 came in at **16.8%**. Three ways this goes: | | **Gross margin** | **What usually follows** | | ------------- | ---------------- | --------------------------------------------------------- | | 🟢 **Beat** | above **18.5%** | TSLA **+6–10%** after hours · Nasdaq futures lean bullish | | 🟡 **In line** | around **17.9%** | **±3.7%**, mixed — direction gets left to the call | | 🔴 **Miss** | below **17%** | TSLA **−6–10%** · Nasdaq futures pull back | The real unknown is how far price cuts and AI spending have pushed margin down. **Barclays** expects automotive gross margin to fall quarter on quarter with free cash flow still under pressure — and that is precisely where the market splits. #### **📊 Where Tesla Stands Going In** **Last close** US$373.71 · about **−20%** so far this year **Consensus EPS** about **US$0.45** **Consensus revenue** roughly **US$28B** **Already known** Q3 deliveries **486,500** (beat, about −2% YoY) · energy storage **13.7 GWh** **Capex** above **US$25B** this year **Track record** missed revenue estimates in **6 of the last 10 quarters** **Analysts** 47 covering · **21 say Hold** · average target US$398, only about **+6%** away **Target range** **US$128 — US$600** **Options implied move** about **±7.5%** #### **🎯 Take the Challenge** **ℹ️** **Rules & Settlement** - Poll closes: 22 October, 04:30 SGT · Comments close: 22 October, 21:30 SGT - 🏆 3 Best Takes = the three comments closest to the actual close, among those that clear the reasoning bar. Each will be rewarded 2 SGD. - Ties on the price call are broken by the earlier timestamp. - One vote and one comment per member. - Rewards are credited within 7 working days after settlement. - Content must be original and relevant. Copied, duplicate, spam or directly AI-generated submissions may be disqualified. ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [TSLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLW.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [TSLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLY.US.md) ## Comments (253) - **gq.ong88 · 2026-10-22T11:40:35.000Z**: yes i think so and tesla will fall again because tonite is black thurs so everything will fall from tesla to microsoft to berkshire and next week will be even worse yes it will come true - **jackrandy · 2026-10-22T11:18:45.000Z**: 💯 - **optionspuppy · 2026-10-22T11:08:01.000Z**: Hopes it rises and protect qqq above support - **koolgal · 2026-10-22T10:34:59.000Z**: Do You Think $Tesla(TSLA.US)Decision to Slash Its 2026 Capex is a Good Idea? 🌟🌟🌟Whether $Tesla(TSLA.US)decision to slash its 2026 Capex forecast by 20% from USD 25 billion to USD 20 billion is a good idea, depends entirely on what kind of company you believe Tesla is.The Bull Case: By spending USD - **Heroic Lifesaver · 2026-10-22T10:11:37.000Z**: 📍 My Call: US$369.80💬 Why: Tesla’s earnings were a mixed bag. Improving automotive margins and stronger free cash flow were encouraging, but the decline in profitability and longer timelines for its AI ambitions are harder to ignore.After the strong run-up into earnings, I suspect some profit-taking - **NewUser_tyJ666 · 2026-10-22T08:55:46.000Z**: I was stunt by the flying car stunt. dream cam true for many - **NewUser_tyJ666 · 2026-10-22T08:52:46.000Z**: I stunt with stunt by the flying car stunt - **VNW_Capital · 2026-10-22T08:51:19.000Z**: more than 7% move! - ** 八方来财！ · 2026-10-22T08:46:48.000Z**: High to the space flying like a x rocket. - **Heytherewussup · 2026-10-22T08:19:54.000Z**: Great - **bananaSaging · 2026-10-22T08:05:36.000Z**: Lets go! - **JayTan · 2026-10-22T07:50:44.000Z**: The flying car cant make Tesla share sky high - **maranatha · 2026-10-22T07:36:06.000Z**: Thanks for sharing. - **Gip3033 · 2026-10-22T07:23:45.000Z**: Hello - **matthosh · 2026-10-22T07:17:16.000Z**: testing if it works - **Ivy_Cheong · 2026-10-22T06:54:14.000Z**: Thanks for sharing. Interesting to know about this. - **Ivy_Cheong · 2026-10-22T06:51:48.000Z**: Thanks for sharing - **Mysteryzzz · 2026-10-22T06:48:10.000Z**: a b c d - **Simon Sin · 2026-10-22T06:47:17.000Z**: hope it rises - **NewUser_0aoX5Z · 2026-10-22T06:45:20.000Z**: Is their share promising despite of so many ai related stocks have went down tremendously ! --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**