The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950That's 19 for 19, with an average g…
The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950
That's 19 for 19, with an average gain of about 15%, per JPMorgan Asset ManagementToday is Election Day, and JPMorgan mapped out how $SPY could react to each resultDemocratic sweep (66% odds) means anywhere from -0.25% to +0.5%Dem House with a GOP Senate (26% odds) means +0.5% to +1%Republican sweep (7% odds) means +1% to +1.25%The bank says a blue wave could hit AI stocks on data center regulation fears, while a red wave could keep the Iran campaign and deficit spending goingThe catch this time is valuation. The Shiller CAPE sits at 40.7, the highest ever heading into a midterm and well above the old record of 33.8 in 1998History favors the bulls, but no streak has ever started from a market this expensive, so tonight's result might matter less than whether AI earnings can justify the price tagSource: StockMarket.News
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