---
title: "ASML's Q1 2024 earnings preview"
description: "On April 17th, ASML will release its Q1 2024 earnings report before the market opens. This article provides a preview of the earnings report.  Review of Q4 2023 earnings report: On January 24, 2023, A"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/20558210.md"
published_at: "2024-04-16T12:13:25.000Z"
author: "[震哥的投资世界](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/9822057)"
---

# ASML's Q1 2024 earnings preview

On April 17, ASML will release its 24Q1 earnings report before the market opens. This article provides a preview of the earnings.

# **23Q4 Earnings Review**

On January 24, 2023, ASML released its 23Q4 earnings report.  
 

<1>Revenue of 7.24 billion: **above expectations of 6.93 billion**

<2>Gross margin of 51.4%: **above expectations of 50-51%**

<3>New order bookings totaled 9.2 billion euros, including 5.6 billion euros for EUV lithography machines: **above expectations**

<4> ASML expects 2024 net sales to be roughly flat compared to 2023, with Q1 2024 net sales projected at 5.0 to 5.5 billion euros and a gross margin of 48% to 49%. **Guidance is weak but management had already set expectations**

<5>Export controls will impact 10%-15% of sales in China (based on 2023 sales in China)

**On January 24, after the earnings release, the stock surged 9.06%, primarily driven by new order bookings of 9.2 billion euros.** 

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/75a3b1ac346dc20fbb5cd3df36d7a71b?x-oss-process=style/lg)

# **24Q1 Key Highlights**

<1>24Q1 performance: **Revenue down 19.98% YoY, EPS down 44.49% YoY**, with expectations already set very low

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/95b197dfab0c835fd42f90e5df5cab65?x-oss-process=style/lg)

**<2>24Q2 and full-year guidance**

Last quarter's guidance projected **flat revenue for the year—watch for any upward revisions**. **Also, whether 24Q1 will mark the lowest point**.    

<3>**New order bookings**

\--The U.S. recently confirmed $39 billion in CHIPs Act subsidies, which will accelerate capital expenditures by chip companies, making ASML one of the biggest beneficiaries.

\--Major suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron plan to increase their HBM production capacity.       

**<4> Capacity expansion**

By the end of 2023, ASML had accumulated backlog orders of 39 billion euros. Based on 23Q4 non-secondhand sales of 5.7 billion euros, **the order delivery cycle is around 2 years**. 

The company plans to increase annual **production capacity to 90 EUV and 600 deep ultraviolet systems (2025-2026), while raising high-NA EUV capacity to 20 systems (2027-2028)**. Monitor progress in this area.         

**<5>China**

According to the company's forecast, export controls will impact 10%-15% of sales in China (based on 2023 sales in China), equivalent to 4-6% of 23Q4 sales.

**China accounted for 39% of 23Q4 sales and 29.3% of full-year sales. Watch for any changes here**

# **Historical Earnings Day Performance**    

<1>Past earnings consistency  
 

From 2021 to 2023, **EPS exceeded expectations in 11 out of 12 quarters, with 1 quarter meeting expectations**.

Revenue exceeded expectations in 8 quarters and fell short in 4 quarters.

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/d14a81fd3cf57e4faba3c4aafc56b659?x-oss-process=style/lg)

<2>Earnings day performance: Over the last 12 earnings releases, the stock rose 7 times and fell 5 times, but there were opportunities for gains on each earnings day.

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/b8072dff9a5d066b544a4e9c923c966d?x-oss-process=style/lg)

# **Earnings Trends and Valuation**

 <1>Quarterly EPS: 24Q1 is expected to mark the **inflection point for YoY growth**

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/0c56497a145545a7906668063246fdc8?x-oss-process=style/lg)

<2>1Y EPS growth: 1Y EPS growth is still **accelerating upward**.

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/3f271101faf1a32c23223b918b50b9fb?x-oss-process=style/lg)

<3>Valuation: Forward P/E for 2024-2026 is **47.17x, 30.96x, and 26.4x**, respectively.

For comparison, TSMC's forward P/E for 2024-2026 is 22.22x, 17.79x, and 15.54x, respectively.

For NVIDIA, forward P/E for 2024-2026 is 34.55x, 28.32x, and 23.83x, respectively.

**Valuation is not cheap**  

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/f346ac154053795ea90cd11cca9d68d1?x-oss-process=style/lg)

<4>Analyst price targets

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/4eee37aedf16fae43f7389f86b8aa86d?x-oss-process=style/lg)

# **Summary**

<1>24Q1 earnings expectations are very low, and historically, the probability of exceeding expectations is high. However, beating expectations does not guarantee a stock price increase—performance depends on guidance.  
 

<2>From a growth trend perspective, 24Q1 marks the inflection point for quarterly EPS growth, while 1Y EPS growth is still accelerating. 2025 will be a big year for ASML as capacity expansion concludes. The 39 billion euro order backlog could see accelerated delivery.    

<3>Valuation is not cheap. As the only global producer of EUV, there’s a reason for the premium.

# **Full Historical Data Appendix**

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/4114c0419b70bb0b920c8d4ed88d7343?x-oss-process=style/lg)

$ASML(ASML.US)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.