--- title: "Thoughts on the future trend of the S&P 500 (.SPX)?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/21585451.md" description: "1. Macro data: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was 48.7, compared to the expected 49.6 and the previous 49.2. The data is not surprising. A more authoritative view is that the ISM Manufacturing PMI must be below 50 for 8 out of 10 consecutive months to be considered an economic downturn. 2. Stock market dynamics: 1) The NYSE experienced a technical glitch, causing anomalies in several U.S. stocks, including Berkshire Hathaway, owned by the 'Stock God' Warren Buffett (I summarized the company introduction on my old public account 4 years ago: Berkshire Annual Meeting..." datetime: "2024-06-03T22:12:25.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/21585451.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/21585451.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/21585451.md) author: "[土鸡瓦狗的ETF🐒](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/11794570.md)" --- # Thoughts on the future trend of the S&P 500 (.SPX)? ![image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/b0c26522274e194e6ac159e6916c6ad9?x-oss-process=style/lg) **1\. Macro Data:** The US **May ISM** **Manufacturing PMI** was 48.7, compared to the expected 49.6 and the previous 49.2. ![image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/1d28de75142125c06a8e3baf3a1c4e93?x-oss-process=style/lg) The data is not surprising. A more authoritative view is that **the ISM Manufacturing PMI must remain below 50 for 8 out of 10 consecutive months to signal an economic downturn.** **2\. Market Dynamics:** **1) Technical glitch at NYSE causes anomalies in several US stocks, including** Berkshire Hathaway **(owned by the "Stock God" Warren Buffett)** (I covered the company introduction in my old public account 4 years ago: [Berkshire Annual Meeting, How Much Do You Know About Warren Buffett?](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0NDk1OTkyMg==&mid=2247484799&idx=1&sn=29711fb45004a373b1d6962a19c2dfeb&chksm=fb7579a2cc02f0b4be43083d6c21c69c7d860b80389c0b34bb0cb87111790e09d9a204addffe&scene=21#wechat_redirect)), **Barrick Gold**, and **NuScale Power**, whose stock prices nearly "zeroed out." This made headlines, so I won’t elaborate. With T+1 settlement, even if you "bottom-fished," it wouldn’t count. The "most expensive" stock causing a "hiccup" dampened market sentiment. ![image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/bb30573f11030865e23e2afa1e880753?x-oss-process=style/lg) **2) Where is the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) headed next?**$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) **① Long-term investment logic:** My bullish thesis for US stocks in 2024 ([S&P 500 Index (.SPX) Investment Logic](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0NDk1OTkyMg==&mid=2247484693&idx=1&sn=84981e9e48beb876aad343792df9a5c2&chksm=fb7579c8cc02f0de09c9da60084283293cf3a59b83a5efc604e0fa1f1792aba23eb4394b20e8&scene=21#wechat_redirect)) is based on fundamental analysis of long-term market trends. **② What about the S&P 500 (.SPX) in the near term?** **Defining the pullback:** The S&P 500 (.SPX) has retreated from 5,341.88 on May 23 to 5,191.68 on May 31, a **2.89% decline** (a 1-3% drop is considered a "routine pullback"). April already saw a "deep correction" (over 5%, a consolidation after the rally since last November). ![image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/268b8bc20820613c1f7f487706aab9ce?x-oss-process=style/lg) **It’s unlikely to see a second "deep correction" within a month, especially during the Fed’s rate hike/cut transition. If it happens, what’s the reason?** ① Economic weakness? No, "soft landing" or "no landing" is the consensus; the market is focused on the timing of recovery. ② Poor corporate earnings? No, big tech’s results are solid, and misses aren’t drastic. ③ Too much profit-taking? No, that’s already priced in. ④ AI bubble? If so, it’s been "bubbling" for over a decade—winners keep winning with evolving valuation narratives. Factoring in technical oscillations and reversals, **I believe this "routine pullback" is nearing its end, and the market is poised for another rally, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) set to hit new highs.** **3\. Bitcoin** (BTC, nicknamed "Big Cake") **rallies then retreats:** Today (20240603), it briefly reclaimed $70K. On "Big Cake" investing, here’s my **trading approach:** ![image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/68c7c576c51b93d0d315e4fa41a8ef46?x-oss-process=style/lg) This method applies to Bitcoin or spot/futures ETFs. **I maintain my view that BTC will remain range-bound before rate cuts and the election.** **Investment logic reference:** Three prior articles covered Bitcoin’s**investment thesis** ([Bitcoin ETF: Investment Value V = 10^(k\*lg(t)-b)?](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0NDk1OTkyMg==&mid=2247484469&idx=1&sn=4282bd041cbca3b1b285d969c73d5e15&chksm=fb7578e8cc02f1fefb733987066a6909af975ac0923b9ff037c8cc46d6b0541c1038678f94fa&scene=21#wechat_redirect)),**asset attributes** ([Bitcoin (Part 2): Asset Nature & Crypto-Equity Investing](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0NDk1OTkyMg==&mid=2247484630&idx=1&sn=47ac6fb7a21d8d4a1c7825e7bde6df4a&chksm=fb75780bcc02f11dd25048e5b06d6233a58e540e30fecea258c9f1fea6f675e17586e9340095&scene=21#wechat_redirect)), and**Bitcoin stocks** ([Bitcoin Stock ETFs: Crypto-Equity "Second Derivative" Amplifies BTC Volatility](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0NDk1OTkyMg==&mid=2247484654&idx=1&sn=af424a9a500779190265ad188f2603d0&chksm=fb757833cc02f125cc47d4ac66db99c2fa5081fbb6ad95056742cfd7cd30d0d2bec98a0d2e2a&scene=21#wechat_redirect)). ### Related Stocks - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [BRK.A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRK.A.US.md) - [VOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOOG.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [BRK.B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRK.B.US.md) ## Comments (1) - **雄心壯志 · 2024-06-04T00:23:18.000Z**: Actually, the US economy is just superficially prosperous, many consumers have reduced their spending