--- title: "Since this year's 618 shopping festival, brands have made a definitive shift from Douyin to Taobao." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/21935052.md" description: "Zebra Consumer Chen Biting As the 618 shopping festival draws to a close, the report cards of major e-commerce platforms are basically locked in. Taobao and Tmall account for nearly half of the GMV, maintaining high growth despite a large base; Douyin has become one of the 'dual cores,' but its growth rate has significantly declined compared to before... What deserves the most attention is the leading brands that guide the overall e-commerce market, and the directional significance conveyed by their shifts between platforms. On one hand, after Douyin E-commerce shifted to a Pinduoduo-like ultra-low-price strategy, it squeezed the survival space of brands. As Douyin's user base and total traffic growth slow down, the implementation and impact of this strategy will continue to deepen..." datetime: "2024-06-19T08:18:13.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/21935052.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/21935052.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/21935052.md) author: "[斑马消费](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/6226040.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/21935052.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/21935052.md) # Since this year's 618 shopping festival, brands have made a definitive shift from Douyin to Taobao. Zebra Consumer Chen Biting The 618 shopping festival is coming to an end, and the report cards of major e-commerce platforms are basically locked in. Taobao and Tmall account for nearly half of the GMV, maintaining high growth despite a large base; Douyin has become one of the "dual cores," but its growth rate has significantly slowed compared to before... What's most noteworthy is the directional significance conveyed by the leading brands that guide the e-commerce market as they shift between platforms. On one hand, after Douyin E-commerce adopted an extreme low-price strategy similar to Pinduoduo, it squeezed the survival space of brands. As Douyin's user base and total traffic growth slow, the implementation and impact of this strategy will deepen further. On the other hand, Taobao and Tmall had already signaled "brand growth" before 618. Judging from this year's 618, the brand explosion has clearly occurred on Tmall. The K-shaped divergence in consumption has penetrated the e-commerce market. Whether pushing for quality-price ratio or racing to the bottom on price, Alibaba, which owns Tmall and Taobao, is clearly more composed. The main battleground for brand explosions remains Tmall. **Brands Turn to Tmall for Growth** The widespread cancellation of presales, simplified gameplay, and extended promotional cycles have created a lively scene for the 618 mid-year shopping festival, significantly boosting user participation on comprehensive e-commerce platforms. According to Analysys's "2024 618 First Phase Observation," from May 20 to June 3, Taobao and Tmall accounted for 47.6% of the total GMV among major e-commerce platforms. Despite holding nearly half of the market share, their growth rate remained as high as 14.6%, above the average for comprehensive e-commerce platforms. During the same period, Douyin's GMV increased by 30.2% year-on-year, accounting for 17.4% of the market share—only 0.5 percentage points lower than JD.com, making it one of the two core players of this year's 618. However, Douyin's growth rate in the first phase of 2024's 618 has significantly declined compared to before. Last year, Douyin E-commerce's GMV grew by over 70% year-on-year during 618. This means the traffic 红利 for brands on Douyin is rapidly fading. Beauty is one of the core categories in the e-commerce market, and mainstream brands' impact on the overall market is particularly evident in this segment. Recently, the WeChat public account "Qingyan Intelligence" released two sets of data: In May this year, Taobao's beauty sales grew 69.2% year-on-year and 40.9% month-on-month, while Douyin's beauty sales grew 28.28% year-on-year and 34.88% month-on-month. The growth rate of the once traffic 红利 platform has been significantly overtaken. As of June 3, the number of beauty brands on Tmall with GMV exceeding 100 million during 618 has reached 43, including 8 brands like AMIRO, Marubi, Forest Cabin, Osmun, and JIMMY for the first time. In contrast, Douyin's beauty segment, which had been growing rapidly, is not optimistic. Some beauty media outlets estimate that a significant portion of Douyin's "beauty influencers" will see year-on-year declines in performance during this year's 618, with some possibly experiencing cliff-like drops of over 80%. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in May 2024, China's retail sales of cosmetics grew 18.7% year-on-year, not only reversing the 2.7% year-on-year decline in April but also far exceeding the 3.7% growth in overall retail sales. If we look only at online retail, the main 增量显然出自 Tmall. Another industry that values brands is food, beverages, and fresh produce, with alcohol sales heavily reliant on brands. According to Chanmama data, from May 29 to June 11 this year, Douyin's food and beverage industry grew 26.94% year-on-year, while fresh produce grew 17.41%. In other words, Douyin's large food industry growth falls between these two figures. During the same period, Taobao and Tmall reported nearly 50% year-on-year growth in the food industry, more than double Douyin's rate. The growth gap is even more exaggerated in Douyin's core live-streaming e-commerce. Since the start of 618, Taobao's food industry live-streaming GMV has grown 261% year-on-year, with 10 live-streaming rooms exceeding 100 million in sales. According to Feigua Data, from May 15 onward, Douyin has had zero live-streaming rooms exceeding 100 million in sales for both food and beverages and fresh produce. The highest record was "Yu Hui Tong Xing" on June 12, with sales nearing 60 million. In the alcohol category, the record was set by Lafeege, who previously achieved over 100 million in sales during his debut live-stream on Taobao. On June 16, he only sold 30 million on Douyin, which was still the highest record for alcohol live-streams on Douyin recently. Even in live-streaming, Douyin's traditional stronghold, it couldn't beat Tmall this time. In fact, the 618 results are just a continuation of the overall momentum of e-commerce platforms. In 2023, Douyin E-commerce's GMV grew by 80%, but this year, growth has noticeably slowed. According to LatePost, in the first two months of 2024, Douyin E-commerce's cumulative year-on-year growth exceeded 60%, but by March, it had dropped below 40%. Alibaba's financial report shows that in Q1 2024, Taotian Group's online GMV and order volume achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, outperforming the same period last year and the overall performance for the full year. Will the full 618 report and this year's e-commerce market continue this trend? **What's Wrong with Douyin?** Douyin launched in 2016 and quickly rose to become the leader in short videos thanks to its 精准的信息流推荐 akin to Toutiao. Eager to monetize its traffic, Douyin began testing e-commerce in 2018 and gradually built its e-commerce system. Douyin E-commerce's early rise also relied on brands. Brand self-streaming + influencer 矩阵， combined with 信息流推荐 based on brand awareness, created Douyin's 兴趣电商 model, distinct from Kuaishou. However, this year, Douyin E-commerce has 明显转向， learning from Pinduoduo, with an extreme low-price model rapidly 渗透 its ecosystem. Ultra-low prices have directly driven away some brands trying to maintain their pricing systems. In June this year, Douyin's "top fashion influencer" and women's clothing store "Lola Code," with 5 million followers, closed. "Lola Code" emphasized brand building, but now, high promotion costs and price pressures have made it unsustainable. In an interview with "Paidai," a merchant revealed that for a piece of clothing priced at 50 yuan, the promotion cost per order has surged from 3-5 yuan in the past to 7-8 yuan now. In this system，白牌 and 类白牌 products thrive; branded products are gradually becoming 弱势. Taking the beauty industry as an example, a significant portion of Douyin's beauty rankings are new brands less than three years old, positioning them closer to 白牌。 Extreme low prices, combined with reliance on 流量投放， make it increasingly difficult for merchants and service providers to profit. The only ones truly achieving 超额收益 in the ecosystem are still the platform and big 主播。 Additionally, the high return rates driven by impulsive live-stream purchases are another major headache for merchants. One merchant complained on Xiaohongshu that during 618, they made 6.7 million on Douyin but had 5.9 million in returns—a staggering 80% return rate. The widely circulated "200 million in 流水 but only 550,000 in profit" isn't even the worst. The financial report of e-commerce 上市公司 Yowant Technology 残酷地揭露了另一种真实。 Yowant is a leading live-streaming e-commerce company. In 2023, its social e-commerce business had a 毛利率 of -0.38%, with "2.3 billion in 投流 and over 1 billion in losses," sparking huge controversy. Short-term absolute price advantages can quickly attract consumers through 强刺激. But in the long run, this model, which damages value systems and harms e-commerce 生态健康， is unlikely to achieve sustainable growth. What consumers really need isn't absolute low prices but 质价比—better products at lower prices. As long as brands can achieve total cost leadership, they can deliver this. Thus, some mainstream brands are shifting their focus to Tmall. Kans, which achieved rapid growth on Douyin in recent years, explicitly stated it would "go all in on Tmall" this year. During the first phase of 618, Kans' sales on Tmall grew 126% year-on-year. The fundamental reason for the strategic differences between Douyin and Tmall lies in their starting points. Douyin E-commerce's 底层逻辑 is 流量变现， converting content platform users into e-commerce consumers. This means it and its 依附的主播 can't escape the "middleman 赚差价" business model, lacking the 深度布局 of comprehensive e-commerce platforms at the 生态 level. This 底层逻辑 also limits Douyin E-commerce's ceiling. Douyin converts its 1 billion+ users into e-commerce buyers, monetizing through 交易货币化率. As user growth and total traffic slow, and conversion and monetization rates 难以大幅提升， Douyin's e-commerce growth 神话 becomes 难以维系。 Another way to look at it is that this explains why Douyin is 转向扶持非主流 brands—branded products have natural traffic, while non-branded products rely mostly on paid traffic, which 可以提高平台的货币化率。 Whether due to internal or external factors, brands are being driven from Douyin to Tmall, and this 618 is a key turning point. **Alibaba's Strategy in the K-Shaped E-Commerce Divergence** On one side, consumers pursue higher quality, better products, and a better life; on the other, "consumption downgrading" is sweeping every 细分市场. The K-shaped divergence in the 消费市场 is deepening. The general consumer mindset is, "I can buy expensive things, but I won’t overpay." E-commerce, as the most concentrated scene of the 消费市场， shows even clearer divergence. Consumers diverge, suppliers diverge, and even e-commerce platforms are 差异化强化各自的标签。 For beauty and fashion brands, go to Tmall; for electronics, go to JD.com; for books, choose Dangdang; for low prices, head to Pinduoduo and Taobao. In the K-shaped e-commerce divergence, the downward side focuses on 极致消费者服务 centered on price, led by Taobao, Pinduoduo, and this year's Douyin—even JD.com is now demanding 绝对低价。 However, "质价比" isn’t limited to 白牌 and cheap goods. The 附加值 from brands' R&D, design, and services is another form of 质价比. Currently, the only e-commerce platform 坚守 this 阵地 may be Tmall. Unlike Taobao, Tmall, born in 2012, has always had brand 基因。 It not only helped traditional brands establish e-commerce as a second channel but also directly spawned 淘 brands like Three Squirrels and Yunnan Herbal. In the process, it even nurtured the e-commerce services 细分市场。 This leading platform focused on brand e-commerce continues to 高举 "brand growth" as its banner, making it the 主场 for brand explosions—a rare sight among platforms racing to the bottom on price and 白牌。 [On April 2, the 2024 Tmall TopTalk was held in Shanghai](https://www.dsb.cn/242658.html). Spokespersons stated that Tmall would focus entirely on brand growth in the new year, increasing resources for new products, new brands, and 爆品， optimizing operations, upgrading 88VIP benefits, and improving brand acquisition and member 运营效率。 Someone 梳理了 the data shared at TopTalk: The platform's 横向中台 has increased support, with a total investment of 50 billion to aid brand growth，扶持新品、爆品、新品牌， covering the cost of expanding 88VIP 会员权益， increasing the number of 合作 brands, and investing in live-streaming e-commerce. Taobao APP has over 900 million monthly active users，接近 China's total netizen count, with huge untapped potential in the high-purchasing-power market. In Q1 this year, Taobao's 88VIP membership grew double digits year-on-year, exceeding 35 million—still the core group for brand consumption. Not 硬卷低价， betting on the brand market can also enhance the platform's 商业价值. The most 直观 data point: In Q1 2024, Taotian's order volume and GMV grew double digits, outpacing revenue growth. Based on e-commerce platforms' revenue models, this means the platform is giving back to merchants. In the ebb and flow of the e-commerce market, Taotian's rhythm is back. There's no absolute boundary between brands and 白牌， or between low prices and quality goods. Taobao has also been working on price competitiveness since last year, increasing efforts like 百亿补贴. You may have noticed that Taobao and Tmall's 券后价 now 基本等同于 the final 成交价。 But low prices aren't the only card Alibaba holds. Tmall, with 300,000 flagship stores, has always been the 基本盘 for domestic and international brands. As 红利 on content platforms fades, the era when brands could 躺赚 by 投流带货 is over. For long-term brand 经营， many merchants are 重新 "going all in on Tmall," not just through 投流 but by integrating product innovation, store product 矩阵， and marketing to build brand 心智， shifting from the 流量逻辑 of "货找人" back to the brand logic of "人找货." This trend may well become the future 风向，值得 the e-commerce industry's continued attention. ### Related Stocks - [ByteDance (BYTED.NA)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BYTED.NA.md) - [BABA-W (09988.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PDD.US.md) - [BABA-WR (89988.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/89988.HK.md) - [Alibaba Group Holding Limited (HBBD.SG)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBBD.SG.md) ## Comments (4) - **Qiu_AaQBAk · 2024-06-20T06:50:28.000Z**: Price power is the most important - **橘子先生 · 2024-06-20T05:30:53.000Z**: How much does this sponsored post cost? - **infinite_field · 2024-06-19T12:40:37.000Z**: Consumption downgrade is the general trend, and debt repayment is the main theme of the future. - **价值&投资 · 2024-06-19T08:38:22.000Z**: "Brand" is the most valuable asset for merchants, otherwise no company can go far! $BABA-W(09988.HK)Only by forming a virtuous cycle can the entire e-commerce industry go far!