---
title: "Is the market trend of CNOOC (00883) over?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/23815121.md"
description: "As my top holding stock, when I made a large purchase at the beginning of the year, almost no one copied my homework. After it rose over 60% in the second half of the year, a lot of speculators started chasing and copying. Then, with several recent big pullbacks, most of them got trapped. I received many private messages asking what to do. My only answer is: tough luck. My trades are set with entry and exit points before buying, so I ignore all meaningless short-term news. Your trades, however, are probably just trying to catch a quick gain when the price rises, and when it fails, you refuse to admit it, hoping to find someone to predict the future for you, telling you it will hit new highs soon. Different strategies lead to different mindsets. My money, my rules..."
datetime: "2024-09-12T03:31:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/23815121.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/23815121.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/23815121.md)
author: "[京城Z先生](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/9198235.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/23815121.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/23815121.md)


# Is the market trend of CNOOC (00883) over?

As my top holding stock, when I made a large purchase at the beginning of the year, almost no one copied my homework. After it rose by more than 60% in the second half of the year, a large number of speculators started to chase and copy, and then several major pullbacks recently have basically trapped them. I received many private messages asking what to do.  

My only answer is: tough luck.  
 

In my trading, I set the buy and sell points before purchasing, so I ignore all meaningless short-term news, whether positive or negative.

Your trading, however, is probably just about seeing a rise and trying to make a quick buck, failing to do so, and then refusing to admit it, hoping to find someone to predict the future for you, telling you that new highs are just around the corner.

Different strategies lead to different mindsets.

My money, my rules; your money, your rules. **I choose to continue sitting tight because the stock hasn’t delivered the value I expected; if your quick buck attempt fails, you should cut your losses in time, instead of lying to yourself that you’re also into value investing and just asking for advice...**

\---

However, even some genuine value investors are panicking—why has it dropped so much? What exactly happened?  
 

If we must find a reason, it has to be: **"The responsibility lies entirely with the U.S."**

After the U.S. CPI data was released, traders scaled back their bets on a significant Fed rate cut in September, leading to a short-term rise in the dollar index and Treasury yields, while U.S. stock futures dipped briefly. The unexpected increase in August’s U.S. core inflation was mainly due to accelerating housing costs, while the rise in transportation services was seasonal.

The U.S. currently produces 50% more oil than Saudi Arabia. **Only after the U.S. election concludes will oil stocks resume their upward trend (no matter who wins).**

Politicians’ words are for gaining power, not for getting things done.

Common sense tells us that before the election concludes, the U.S. will likely keep oil prices low to control domestic inflation. Once the dust settles, the winner will revert to the usual "money-printing" playbook.

So, the second half of this year might be uneventful—just minor fluctuations in Brent crude around $70, leading to small ups and downs in oil stocks.

But what about the next 3-5 years?

With global inflation, it’s hard to imagine oil prices not rising. After all, they’ve stayed below $100 per barrel for decades, barely increasing, while global prices have kept climbing. This is one reason Buffett bought oil stocks—he’s looking 5 years ahead.

I don’t look as far ahead as Buffett—3 years is my limit—but the logic is similar. That’s why I didn’t reduce my holdings even when the stock price was a bit high. Mainly because selling wouldn’t leave me with better alternatives, and **holding too much cash is a recipe for mistakes**, as many of you have likely experienced.

So, long-term outlook for CNOOC H: If oil prices rise alongside strong earnings, the stock will eventually hit new highs. If oil prices don’t rise (they won’t fall further, as that would push many companies below cost), steady earnings growth and share buybacks will still drive the stock to new highs.  
 

When will new highs come?

No idea. In the meantime, just relax and collect dividends.

Today, CNOOC H went ex-dividend, and the payout will take a while. Combined with the pending dividend from China Coal H and the one received in June, my cash position will grow further, roughly by about 1.5%, creating more room for maneuvers.

These two stocks make up nearly 70% of my Chinese equity holdings. By doing nothing, I’ve outperformed 95% of Tonghuashun users. Making money through value investing is that simple—and boring.

Perhaps that’s why most people refuse to follow suit, opting instead to lose money through reckless trading.

As Buffett said: Nobody wants to get rich slowly.

**But I do. I ain’t nobody.**$CNOOC(00883.HK)

### Related Stocks

- [CNOOC (600938.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600938.CN.md)
- [PING AN HKDIV (03070.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03070.HK.md)
- [CNOOC-R (80883.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/80883.HK.md)
- [CNOOC (00883.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00883.HK.md)

## Comments (23)

- **Future_629 · 2024-09-27T07:26:44.000Z**: 大佬，能咨询一下，中海油和 JEPI、JEPQ 这种怎么选
  - **京城Z先生** (2024-09-27T07:33:28.000Z): Choose the ones you can understand and calculate the valuation for
  - **Future_629** (2024-09-27T07:37:05.000Z): 明白了，谢谢大佬回复
- **Tesla Fans · 2024-09-12T06:48:39.000Z**: 想請問師兄石油資源股都是未來上升賺錢的大趨勢嗎？
  - **京城Z先生** (2024-09-12T07:02:04.000Z): Subsidiaries with poor resources and high costs will eventually be acquired or merged.
  - **Tesla Fans** (2024-09-12T10:28:46.000Z): This would pose a significant risk of heavy losses to investors' funds, wouldn't it?
  - **美股研究老人** (2024-09-13T23:53:26.000Z): 这个要根据自身的风险承受能力来做出相对应的策略，风险不同应对的策略也不相同
- **大鱼治水 · 2024-09-12T06:01:56.000Z**: 打算一直捏手里做养老产品，逢跌就入一下😀
  - **京城Z先生** (2024-09-12T06:04:12.000Z): 一般都会中途改主意的
  - **大鱼治水** (2024-09-12T06:06:10.000Z): 哈哈 只要仓位别穿太狠就行，上周脑热买了银行没两天掉了 10 个点含泪割了换仓
  - **大鱼治水** (2024-09-12T06:08:23.000Z): Should be more than 10 points. Bought at 35 but couldn't stand the drop to 28 and sold. Now allocating to PetroChina + Alibaba + XPeng, still feels promising.
- **打工人不想上班 · 2024-09-12T04:54:48.000Z**: 我想知道，中海油和中石油中石化，区别大吗？为什么这么特别看好中石油，而不是另外两桶油
  - **京城Z先生** (2024-09-12T05:02:47.000Z): 另外两个也不错啊，海油独有的是 “海” 油
  - **打工人不想上班** (2024-09-12T05:11:07.000Z): 美国目前的石油产量比沙特高出 50%。只有在美国大选结束，石油股才会重新开启上涨趋势（无论谁赢）。抄作业，已关注😊
- **長野原烟花店交易员 · 2024-09-12T04:29:20.000Z · 👍 1**: 写的很好，赞了
- **发家致富吧 · 2024-09-12T04:21:43.000Z**: 刚开始，今天分批重仓了中海油 A虽然已经开了港股通，之前请教过您 a 和 h 的区别，但港股红利税很高，未来预期人民币升值，还是选择了买 a 股。
  - **京城Z先生** (2024-09-12T04:38:54.000Z): A 还有个优势是当天卖出即可交易 A 股，港股通得间隔一天，但是今年涨幅 h 比 a 更好太多。
  - **胖虎和静静** (2024-09-12T05:29:31.000Z): 你全部买入还是分批入？
  - **发家致富吧** (2024-09-12T05:41:27.000Z): Bought some yesterday, bought some today, already broke...
- **水沝淼㵘9527 · 2024-09-12T03:31:51.000Z**: 看长线