---
title: "TLT I'm going to buy it this way."
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/23902850.md"
description: "Buying TLT is almost equivalent to going long on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which means believing that long-term Treasury yields will fall. Recently, I read an analysis article on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and it provided a trading range. Although TLT tracks 20-year and above U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield trends of 10-year and 20-year Treasuries are basically similar, so it can be used as a reference for TLT trading..."
datetime: "2024-09-17T03:54:11.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/23902850.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/23902850.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/23902850.md)
author: "[momoM](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/7524795.md)"
---

# TLT I'm going to buy it this way.

Buying TLT is almost equivalent to going long on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which means expecting the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to decline. Recently, I read an analysis article about the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which provided a trading range. Although TLT tracks 20-year and longer U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield trends of 10-year and 20-year bonds are generally similar, so it can be used as a reference for TLT trading. Post link: [https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HwCcn7OY66CWPLo7ESjnlg](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HwCcn7OY66CWPLo7ESjnlg)

Original conclusion: **The range for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds can be anchored at 3.2%-4.2%, with 3.7% serving as the allocation midpoint. Moving up 20-30bp to the 3.9%-4.0% range is a better point for additional allocation.**

Let me translate: The fluctuation range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is 3.2%–4.2%. When it rises to 3.7%, you can increase your position in TLT, and at 3.9%–4.0%, you can double down. So, what are the corresponding price points for TLT?

1.  **When the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is at 3.7%**, the most recent two timeframes—May and June 2023 and early August to early September this year—**correspond to TLT prices between 95–100. This range is suitable for increasing positions**;
2.  **When the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is at 3.9%–4.0%**, the most recent two timeframes—July and August 2023 and late July this year—**correspond to TLT prices between 90–95. This is the point to double down**;
3.  **When the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is at 4.2%**, the most recent two timeframes—mid-August to mid-September 2023 and mid-June to mid-July this year—**correspond to TLT prices around 90**. When interest rates peak, TLT hits its lowest point.

The original article explains what the current 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield of 3.6% is pricing in, the rationale behind the pricing, and why this fluctuation range was given. Personally, I feel the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is falling too quickly. After the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, there might be a rebound, making TLT cheaper to buy later:

"Since late July, U.S. Treasury bond yields have accelerated their decline, moving so fast that many investors couldn’t keep up. In absolute terms, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is in the 3.6%-3.7% range, only 40bp higher than the peak rate of 2.5% during the 2018 rate hikes. Looking at the rolling 3-month decline, this round’s drop exceeded 70bp, close to the extremes seen during the 2019 rate-cut cycle and the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, second only to the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020."

![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2024/ed11291ed1c815d40c237163db4f47c5?x-oss-process=style/lg)

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US)

@躺平致富 @corazon What do you think, teachers? 🥹

### Related Stocks

- [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TMF.US.md)
- [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLT.US.md)

## Comments (17)

- **leo_x · 2024-09-20T07:57:06.000Z**: The trend remains unchanged, buying in batches below 100 is no big deal~ Just wait to harvest profits a year later.
- **旦旦 · 2024-09-17T13:31:43.000Z · 👍 1**: $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)长债做中短线会不会好一点
  - **momoM** (2024-09-18T03:08:43.000Z): 因为其实上涨幅度目前看也有限哈？短线打野 TMF 也行
- **Tesla Fans · 2024-09-17T13:16:00.000Z**: 想請教下買$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)是否長揸住就得，不用理會太多呢？
  - **momoM** (2024-09-17T13:46:53.000Z): Not really. If inflation suddenly rises, interest rates will turn around and TLT will still fall.
  - **LZDA** (2024-09-20T08:50:07.000Z): 利率转向几率不大吧？最多暂停降息
- **虞山 · 2024-09-17T11:22:25.000Z · 👍 1**: 联储降息决议公布后：我预计会选择$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)类似国债 ETF，买债券只是为了每个月有或者每年都有固定利息可以入账，求一个稳定，债券相比股票收益更低，资金小配置股票与黄金 ETF，就足够了债券 ETF 只会少量配置
- **Kebab · 2024-09-17T10:05:10.000Z · 👍 2**: 我想是可以作为一个对冲的选项，万一发生衰退可以对冲在股票上的损失，在降息周期里，TLT 下行空间不大，90 就是铁底了，即便押错损失也不会太大
  - **momoM** (2024-09-17T10:09:38.000Z): Yes, I think so too.
- **奇迹的交易员cola · 2024-09-17T06:53:40.000Z · 👍 2**: 110 以下都是便宜货。
  - **momoM** (2024-09-17T06:54:31.000Z): 把买股票当买菜了 追求性价比🙈
- **yukino · 2024-09-17T05:20:06.000Z · 👍 2**: Just hold TLT and don't overthink it. But it's better to divide into multiple batches of funds. Add more when it drops. Soft landing target 130, hard landing target 170.
  - **momoM** (2024-09-17T05:28:44.000Z): Hmm, it's like planning for yourself where to add positions when the price drops.
  - **yukino** (2024-09-17T05:30:54.000Z): 可以 不过 tlt 这类带好止盈 止损没必要
  - **momoM** (2024-09-17T05:46:26.000Z): Indeed, the downside seems limited at this point.
- **躺平致富 · 2024-09-17T03:59:47.000Z · 👍 2**: 意思是說現在 100 元以下都可以加倉？
  - **momoM** (2024-09-17T06:54:36.000Z): No problem 😌