---
title: "Losing money in a bull market is indeed possible."
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/24445742.md"
description: "As mentioned last week, the familiar taste of Hong Kong and A-shares is back again. Brokers are working overtime to recruit new accounts, and newcomers are rushing in like a swarm. The internet is flooded with the hype of a bull market, as if afraid that naive investors won't come to take over. It's said that newcomers can only start buying on October 9th, which I think is quite merciful. After all, on the first trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high at 3674 but quickly plunged, closing with a long lower shadow and a green hammer candlestick (reportedly due to the disappointing content of the press conference at 10 AM that day). This probably scared off quite a few new naive investors. If that didn’t scare them away, the next day’s 6%+ plunge would have buried them alive..."
datetime: "2024-10-13T15:36:04.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/24445742.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/24445742.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/24445742.md)
author: "[港女虐我千百遍](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3800979.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/24445742.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/24445742.md)


# Losing money in a bull market is indeed possible.

As mentioned last week, the familiar taste of Hong Kong and A-shares is back again. Brokers are working overtime to recruit new accounts, and newcomers are rushing into the market in droves. The internet is flooded with hype about a bull market, as if they're afraid the naive investors won't come to take the bait. It's said that newcomers can only start buying on October 9th, which I think is quite merciful. After all, on the first trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high at 3674 but quickly plunged, closing with a long lower shadow and a green hammer candlestick (reportedly due to the disappointing content of the 10 AM press conference that day). This probably scared off quite a few new naive investors. If that didn't scare them away, the next day's 6%+ plunge would've buried them alive. Hong Kong's market was even more brutal—after the holiday, the northbound capital returned on October 8th and triggered a massive crash. The Hang Seng Index futures plummeted 10% in a single day, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 14%. Some who leveraged up to chase highs during the National Day holiday lost all their pre-holiday gains, and some even got margin-called. Losing money in a bull market—turns out it's not a myth...

On Thursday, Hong Kong's market staged a reasonable rebound. The index rose to near the MA5 resistance before pulling back. The daily MA5 formed a death cross with MA10, but since MA10 is still trending upward, this death cross isn't too concerning. Under normal circumstances, we should see MA5 forming a golden cross with MA10 again, provided key levels like 20250 (4500 for Hang Seng Tech) aren't broken. This is also a strong support level for next week. Medium-to-long-term players who remain optimistic can consider scaling in here (unless a big bearish candle breaks through). However, even if the index manages to form a golden cross next week, it's unlikely to immediately hit new highs and kick off a full-blown bull market. If the weekly chart hasn't fully corrected before another rally, a sharp reversal is highly possible. The best-case scenario would be a wide-range consolidation to absorb selling pressure. A slightly worse but still healthy outcome would be a pullback toward MA20 or MA30 (similar to the red and green line scenarios). As long as the current uptrend remains intact, we can stay cautiously optimistic.

Hang Seng resistance: 21440, 22500; support: 21000, 20240, 19970. Hang Seng Tech resistance: 4830, 4930; support: 4630, 4500, 4300.

Among tech heavyweights, Xiaomi and Meituan remain the leaders, with their prices still above MA10. Those holding Hong Kong big tech stocks should watch the resistance at their respective 5-day moving averages next week.

Meituan faces resistance near HKD 193 in the next two days, with support at 190 and 176, and major support at HKD 171. $MEITUAN(03690.HK)

Among the "three fools," XPeng, while not yet in a full reversal from a macro perspective, has already slightly outperformed the broader market and other heavyweights in the short term, with MA5 forming a golden cross with MA10. Resistance is at HKD 55 and 57, with support at HKD 48. A break below 48 would signal range-bound trading, with major support at HKD 44.5 next week. $XPENG-W(09868.HK)

Last week's U.S. non-farm payroll data unexpectedly smashed expectations (the data looks fishy!). The Nasdaq took the chance to break upward, but the move was modest and hasn't surpassed previous highs. After the latest CPI inflation data this week, the probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut at the next meeting rose again. The index has been hovering around 20400 for the past two days, temporarily avoiding the risk of breaking below 19850.

The Nasdaq's direction remains unclear, and with no key data next week, expect range-bound trading between 19950 and 20600. Support levels to watch: 20300 and 20200.

Another highlight this week was Tesla's Robotaxi unveiling. The two scissor-door, steering-wheel-less, button-less Robotaxis were undeniably cool, along with the 20-seater Robovan. The upgraded Optimus, which can dance, mix drinks, and play rock-paper-scissors, was the finale. There were plenty of highlights, but no detailed specs or commercialization plans. Elon Musk was 30 minutes late, and the entire 20-minute event left investors unimpressed. Tesla's pre-market dropped 7%, closing down 8.78% for the day. Support at $210 and $203, with 5-day MA resistance at $232. Time is needed for recovery. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Nvidia gained nearly 8% this week, nearing previous highs. It's currently in a wave-like uptrend, with solid support at $130, $124, and $122. Resistance is at $140. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

PLTR, as expected, staged a small one-sided rally this week, gaining nearly 20% since early October. Friday's doji candle suggests further upside next week if it holds above $42.5. $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

COINBASE finally printed a big bullish candle to confirm a bottom. It'll need to grind higher step by step—it's been struggling at the bottom for a while after the top. In contrast, another crypto-related stock, MSTR, has been riding the MA10 wave, surging 15.9% on Friday to new highs, outperforming all other crypto stocks and even Bitcoin itself.

  
(Next week, besides Hong Kong and U.S. markets, I'll be paying extra attention to the A-share market—not to seize opportunities, but to see how this distorted market amplifies human greed and executes massive wealth redistribution in the shortest time possible!)

### Related Stocks

- [MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03690.HK.md)
- [Meituan (MPNGY.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MPNGY.US.md)
- [XPENG-W (09868.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09868.HK.md)
- [XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XPEV.US.md)
- [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md)
- [NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md)
- [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTR.US.md)

## Comments (8)

- **元宝满天 · 2024-10-18T07:18:55.000Z**: 小赌怡情
- **新用戶_1uQ22Y · 2024-10-14T02:59:37.000Z**: Cut losses and exit the market 😤
- **你好，明天 · 2024-10-14T01:52:51.000Z**: What can we do? 😂
  - **港女虐我千百遍** (2024-10-14T02:03:22.000Z): Calm down and protect your principal.
  - **你好，明天** (2024-10-14T02:17:44.000Z): 今早一开盘已经割肉离场😭
- **卡面来打 · 2024-10-14T01:24:24.000Z · 👍 4**: I'm the chosen naive investor who leveraged up before the holiday and lost all the floating profits after it. Got carried away by the atmosphere of brokers working overtime to open accounts during National Day, thought I could grab some more on the 8th and 9th, but ended up vomiting it all out.
  - **港女虐我千百遍** (2024-10-14T02:02:53.000Z): Cut losses to protect your principal first
  - **中概不言顶** (2024-10-14T03:14:12.000Z): We won't leave you a single day, lightning ⚡️ scythe 😁