---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/24489419.md"
description: "$ASML(ASML.US) What's the logic behind this? Doesn't it have over 90% market share? The earnings forecast for 2025 falling short of expectations suggests a global market downturn until next year? But the projected 35 billion euros in 2025 is a 27% increase from 27.6 billion euros in 2023. The 2023 earnings were released in mid-February when the stock price was 950+. Shouldn't the fair price be 950*1.27=1206.5?Is there an oversupply of AI chips? Why did $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) also drop today?"
datetime: "2024-10-15T19:23:24.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/24489419.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/24489419.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/24489419.md)
author: "[qcsunny](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/15428434.md)"
---

# $ASML(ASML.US) What's the logic behind this? Doesn…


### Related Stocks

- [ASML.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASML.US.md)
- [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md)
- [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md)

## Comments (8)

- **Wxy · 2024-10-16T00:20:31.000Z**: 看新闻，是政治原因，中国市场大幅萎缩
  - **qcsunny** (2024-10-16T07:07:37.000Z): The Chinese market only accounts for about 20% of ASML's revenue, so a 16% drop seems excessive.
- **长长长长长长长 · 2024-10-16T00:12:33.000Z · 👍 1**: 仁兄你这样做应该持长线，涨跌与你不相干，因为你看中的是企业价值，你关注的点跟花街这帮人关注的并没有太大关联。
  - **qcsunny** (2024-10-16T07:55:29.000Z): 花街做预期和确定股价，真的是醉了。看了下 23 年年报也是预计 24 年营收接近于 23 年的，实际也是如此。实际上 24Q3 营收 75 亿欧，比 Q2 涨了 12 亿欧，另外订单缩减情况下，预测 25 年营收也能涨到 300 到 350 亿欧，涨幅 20%+ 也比较合理。花街分析师也太过度反应了。
- **纳斯达克恐怖骑士 · 2024-10-15T19:54:11.000Z · 👍 1**: 不控制产能你想把芯片卖出沙子价吗
- **走出围城 · 2024-10-15T19:36:05.000Z**: 话说营业额涨多少个点股价就会涨多少个点吗
  - **qcsunny** (2024-10-15T19:47:55.000Z): 毛利率净利率基本不变，营收增长，净利增长，那股东权益也应该会相应增长啊
- **投资？投机？ · 2024-10-15T19:25:05.000Z · 👍 4**: 很简单，现在 ai 的股价已经有泡沫了，这些科技公司必须要大超预期才能保住现在的股价，现在 ai 投资者过分乐观了，对公司业绩要求越来越苛刻