---
title: "GB200 NVL72 production capacity visibility is low, be cautious of short-term potential risks for Nvidia and related supply chains."
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/26596284.md"
description: "$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)The expectation that GB200 NVL72 assembly will be shipped in large quantities in 2Q25 may still be relatively optimistic. GB200 NVL72 assembly mass production timeline delay records: September 2024 → December 2024 → 1Q25 → 2Q25 (latest). The result of multiple delays in large-scale shipments is that the shipment volume will be lower than expected. Currently, it is expected that GB200 NVL72 shipments in 2025 may be approximately 25,000–35,000 cabinets..."
datetime: "2025-01-14T02:05:46.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/26596284.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/26596284.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/26596284.md)
author: "[郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16207082.md)"
---

# GB200 NVL72 production capacity visibility is low, be cautious of short-term potential risks for Nvidia and related supply chains.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

1.  The expectation that GB200 NVL72 assembly will see mass shipments in 2Q25 may still be relatively optimistic.  
    
2.  GB200 NVL72 assembly mass production timeline delay records: September 2024 → December 2024 → 1Q25 → 2Q25 (latest).  
    
3.  The result of multiple delays in mass shipments is that the shipment volume will be lower than expected. Currently, it is expected that GB200 NVL72 shipments in 2025 may be around 25,000–35,000 racks, significantly lower than the 50,000–80,000 racks expected during the most optimistic market sentiment last year. However, what may currently have the greatest impact on market sentiment is not the change in shipment volume but the negative effect on market confidence caused by the multiple delays of GB200 NVL72.  
    
4.  For general servers (x86), the development time from project initiation to mass shipments typically takes 1–1.5 years for standard specification upgrades. If it involves platform upgrades or key technology upgrades, it may take 1.5–2 years.  
    
5.  GB200 NVL72 significantly enhances computing power by adopting multiple high-spec technologies with little or no mass production experience, making its development difficulty far higher than that of general servers. Even with the integration of top-tier development resources from the global server supply chain, a reasonable estimate suggests that the development time would still require 1.5–2 years. Comparing this with the multiple delay records of GB200 NVL72, the main reason for the delays is clearly insufficient development time.  
    
6.  The GB200 NVL72 project was initiated in 4Q23. Assuming a reasonable development time of at least 1.5–2 years, 2Q25 is a reasonable and optimistic expectation. If it is delayed again to 2H25, it would not be surprising (and if it happens, it would further damage market confidence).  
    
7.  Currently, the GPUs consumed by lower-spec GB200 models and several HGX orders are only equivalent to about 2,000–4,000 racks of GB200 NVL72, which provides limited help in boosting market confidence.  
    
8.  Below are the negative effects of insufficient market confidence.  
    — Currently, the most unfavorable factor for market sentiment is that although the supply chain expects GB200 NVL72 to see mass shipments in 2Q25, investors lack confidence in this commitment until they see evidence of mass shipments.  
    — Even though some suppliers or customers have posted photos of finished GB200 NVL72 products in small quantities or as samples, this has provided limited support for the stock prices of Nvidia or the supply chain, as investors are focused on clear evidence of mass shipments (such as supply chain surveys, revenue, etc.).  
    — With stock prices already reflecting positive news but market confidence remaining weak, related market rumors (which may not be entirely true) are easily amplified or overinterpreted, such as the earlier rumors about ASIC replacing Nvidia AI chips and recent ones about CoWoS capacity expansion.  
    
9.  GB300 NVL72 also has several key specification upgrades that require development time, so it is more likely that mass shipments will not occur until 1H26. Due to low visibility on mass production, related positive news will have limited impact on boosting market confidence in the short term.  
    
10.  Since the shipment issues are on the supply side rather than the demand side, and given TSMC's cautious approach to capacity expansion and the scarcity of advanced process technology, Nvidia is unlikely to cut orders in the short term unless GB200 NVL72 experiences multiple delays again.

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