--- title: "3674 points, can it break through in the first half of the year?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/27722818.md" description: "Amid the sharp decline in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, Liu Yuhui said in a speech in Ningbo on February 27 that the capital market is undergoing a stronger trend in the direction of Chinese assets. This is because the overall economic expectations are transitioning from an ICU state to a general ward state, and people's expectations for the economy are significantly improving. In this context, hoping for further policy stimulus is unrealistic. Instead, for the current capital market, opportunities precisely come from external factors—namely, the increasing volatility and risk factors accumulated behind dollar assets..." datetime: "2025-03-01T02:20:19.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/27722818.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/27722818.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/27722818.md) author: "[萌生财经](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17513712.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/27722818.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/27722818.md) # 3674 points, can it break through in the first half of the year? Amid the sharp decline in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, Liu Yuhui stated in a speech in Ningbo on February 27 that the capital market is undergoing a stronger trend in the direction of Chinese assets. This is because the overall economic expectations are transitioning from an ICU-like state to a general ward-like state, and confidence in the economy is significantly strengthening. Under these circumstances, expecting further policy stimulus is unrealistic. Instead, for the current capital market, opportunities precisely come from external factors—namely, the increasing volatility and risk factors accumulated behind USD-denominated assets. This essentially refers to the global capital diversion following significant fluctuations in USD-denominated assets, and the recent rally in Hong Kong stocks is likely a result of this diversion. Of course, U.S. stocks have not yet shown a trend reversal downward, so the impact on Chinese assets appears limited for now. However, this situation could evolve in the future, potentially leading to deeper global capital inflows into Chinese assets. I largely agree with this logic. The recent rally in Hong Kong stocks is primarily driven by foreign capital, a result of global asset diversion. While domestic southbound capital also appears frenzied, foreign capital remains the dominant force. This was evident in yesterday’s sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks, where the Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 5% in a single day due to minor external negative factors. This 恰恰 indicates that the probability of foreign capital outflows increases under external bearish influences—even as southbound capital saw a net inflow of over 10 billion yuan yesterday. So, who’s shorting Hong Kong stocks? 3,674 points—can it be breached in the first half of the year? Liu Yuhui’s perspective is indeed 鼓舞， especially amid market turmoil. The key takeaway is his assertion that the Shanghai Composite Index could surpass last year’s high in the first half of the year. As we all know, last year’s peak was 3,674 points, set after the National Day holiday. Breaching 3,674 points is easier said than done. The reason for this skepticism is that post-National Day last year, market sentiment was exuberant, leaving trillions in 套牢筹码 (trapped positions). Given the current market dynamics, achieving this would require renewed optimism and a strong rally from brokerages. In my view, if the market aims to rally again and 挑战 3,674 points—or even 4,000 points—the indispensable factor is robust policy support. With this backing and a reversal in the trend of USD-denominated assets, the combined force of foreign and domestic capital could not only breach 3,674 points but also potentially target 4,000. The 核心问题 is whether macro policies and global 资产 will align with our expectations. Most importantly, I believe Hong Kong stocks must maintain their 强势. The recent rally in Hong Kong stocks was hard-won. Even if they don’t surge further, maintaining 高位震荡 would still fuel a 补涨行情 in A-shares. After all, if Hong Kong stocks don’t fall, it signals no major foreign capital outflows, which would significantly boost market morale. From my perspective, despite Friday’s sharp declines in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the fact that southbound capital still 流入 11 billion HKD suggests the Hong Kong market is merely facing external 干扰 and profit-taking after recent gains. This could lay the groundwork for further upside. As long as Hong Kong stocks remain strong, capital will eventually flow into A-shares, which are still 徘徊 at relatively low levels. After rising for 14 consecutive trading days, yesterday’s drop erased all gains—meaning, from the Shanghai Composite’s perspective, there are no 获利盘 currently. In conclusion: breaching 3,674 points is possible, but it requires the combined effect of internal and external factors. **Disclaimer: The content herein is for reference only and does not constitute any operational advice or 提示. The stock market carries risks—invest with caution!**