---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/27772325.md"
description: "$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Another bloody night. Updating and recording my thoughts:1. The immediate trigger was order cuts. Not just NVIDIA, but ASIC and others also cut orders. This has been mentioned before—it's an old game of chicken between TSMC and its clients. Especially for TSMC, it doesn't constitute real-time losses since capacity was already tight.2. The timing is delicate. The impact of Deepseek hasn't fully dissipated, Trump is on the offensive relentlessly until recession hits, the macro environment is already shaky, NVIDIA itself lacks upward momentum, and its process issues aren't resolved. Looking at budgets now, the shake in confidence across multiple fronts is just too severe. Last time, after $AMD(AMD.US) cut TSMC orders, its stock never recovered. This time, I doubt it'll fare much better—without a drop, going long now just doesn't offer good odds. I sold a few 110 puts, which will likely end up worthless.3. Duan Yongping reportedly sold a tiny amount of short-term 110 puts. My take is that the position is too small—it's more about signaling long-term value orientation than offering any meaningful guidance for the near term. If there's a sharp drop in the short-to-medium term, that's when opportunities emerge.4. TSMC is complicated too. It announced massive U.S. investments, which should tide it over for now. What about its relationship with Intel? Unclear—seems stagnant. Long-term, it might as well rebrand as "American Semiconductor Manufacturing Company." How much will client order cuts hurt TSMC? Hard to say. What's clearer is that it's more stable than NVIDIA—long TSMC, short NVIDIA seems safer. But what if semiconductors stage a comeback? That's when things get tricky. For now, keep positions small and observe.Disclosure: Currently holding 10% long position in TSMC, 0% in other U.S. semiconductor stocks."
datetime: "2025-03-04T01:02:53.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/27772325.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/27772325.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/27772325.md)
author: "[晓风 morning_wind](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/6620864.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/27772325.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/27772325.md)


# $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Anot…


### Related Stocks

- [NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md)
- [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md)
- [Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md)

## Comments (2)

- **退哥小迷弟 · 2025-03-04T04:03:06.000Z**: Started pumping after cutting for so long? 😢
  - **晓风 morning_wind** (2025-03-04T23:18:11.000Z): The platform is not bad, last night it still outperformed Voyah.