---
title: "Is Xiaomi worth 1 trillion? — Xiaomi valuation calculation"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/27928168.md"
description: "In 2025, $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) wrote an epic comeback story in the capital markets. Its stock price soared from a low of HK$8 in 2022 to a peak of HK$58.7, with its market cap surpassing HK$1.4 trillion, a rise of over 570%, making it the new darling of Hong Kong's tech stocks in the "trillion-dollar club." The Xiaomi that was once snubbed by the capital markets has now become a hot favorite. I've held Xiaomi for 5 years, and now I can finally hold my head high. Recently, many friends have been asking me whether they should still buy Xiaomi..."
datetime: "2025-03-08T11:25:53.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/27928168.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/27928168.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/27928168.md)
author: "[投资之路](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/1262897.md)"
---

# Is Xiaomi worth 1 trillion? — Xiaomi valuation calculation

In 2025, $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) wrote an epic comeback story in the capital markets. Its stock price soared from a low of HK$8 in 2022 to a peak of HK$58.7, with its market cap surpassing HK$1.4 trillion, a rise of over 570%, making it the new darling of Hong Kong's tech stocks in the "trillion club." The Xiaomi that was once snubbed by the capital markets has now become a hot favorite. I've held Xiaomi for 5 years, and now I can finally hold my head high. Recently, many friends have been asking me whether it's still a good time to buy Xiaomi. Here, I'll do a simple valuation calculation to see if Xiaomi is really worth HK$1 trillion!

First, even when Xiaomi's stock price hadn't risen yet, I often heard the argument that Apple's P/E ratio was only around 30, while Xiaomi's was even higher, implying Xiaomi was overvalued. Some influencers with tens of thousands of followers also echoed this view. My advice? Unfollow these influencers ASAP—they can't even do basic math. As we all know, Xiaomi's business is divided into four segments: smartphones, IoT, internet services, and electric vehicles. The first three can be considered traditional businesses, which are steadily profitable, while the EV segment is currently loss-making. Take 2023 as an example: EV revenue was zero, but related expenses totaled HK$6.6 billion. So, when valuing Xiaomi, we must add back this HK$6.6 billion to get the true valuation of its traditional businesses.

### **1\. Valuation of Traditional Businesses**

Let's cut to the chase. For Q4 2024, we're using CICC's forecasted data. Xiaomi's traditional businesses generated revenue of HK$330.3 billion, with adjusted net profit (adding back EV losses) of HK$32.1 billion. The table below also shows that Xiaomi's traditional businesses grew over 20% in 2024. The launch of the Xiaomi SU7 has positively stimulated its traditional businesses, and its performance in home appliances is also improving. So, a 15%-20% growth rate next year is still achievable.

Assuming a 15% growth in both revenue and net profit for traditional businesses in 2025, and applying P/E multiples of 15-30x, the corresponding market cap for traditional businesses is shown in the table below. Given Xiaomi's ~20% growth rate in traditional businesses, a PEG of 1 suggests a 20x P/E is relatively reasonable, so the red figures are more realistic.

### **2\. Valuation of EV Business**

There are two ways to value the EV business: price-to-sales (P/S) ratio or estimating future net profit and applying a P/E ratio. The latter is harder, so we'll use P/S here, as Xiaomi's car sales targets make revenue easier to estimate.

First, let's look at the P/S ratios of major EV players. Most are around 1.5x, while Tesla, with its AI narrative, commands a much higher multiple. Li Auto and BYD, being pure EV plays, have limited upside. Xiaomi, with its humanoid robots, has more AI-driven potential, so I think it deserves a slightly higher valuation.

Using P/S multiples of 1.5-3x, the valuation is as follows:

### 3. **Xiaomi's Total Valuation**

I believe a 20x P/E for traditional businesses and 2-3x P/S for EVs are reasonable. By 2026, when the EV business stabilizes, we can switch to P/E. Using 20x P/E for traditional businesses and 2-3x P/S for EVs, Xiaomi's valuation for the next 3 years is shown below.

Of course, this assumes everything goes as planned, with no major surprises. So far, the news has been positive for both traditional and EV businesses. Xiaomi's current market cap is HK$1.36 trillion, exceeding my 2026 estimate of 20x P/E + 2x P/S. This is partly because my estimates are conservative, especially for EVs, and partly due to market sentiment and more optimistic forecasts. Either way, post-hype, Xiaomi's stock will be driven by fundamentals. Starting from Q4 2024, Xiaomi's quarterly revenue will likely surpass HK$100 billion, entering the "HK$100 billion quarterly revenue club." The day Xiaomi's annual net profit hits HK$100 billion, its stock price will be in triple digits. Patience is key—what can't be done in a year might be possible in 10!

**Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not investment advice! Original content is hard work—your likes and follows are the best support!**

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## Comments (23)

- **钢板日川 · 2025-03-15T05:32:30.000Z**: Indeed this thought
- **maydx · 2025-03-10T23:01:57.000Z**: Xiaomi can still grow by 50%
- **GDXF · 2025-03-10T17:42:17.000Z**: $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)Go Xiaomi!
- **TOKIMEKI · 2025-03-10T13:20:14.000Z**: You can smash your calculator all you want, but you're only seeing performance projections through 2026, and now it's 2025.
  - **投资之路** (2025-03-10T13:41:06.000Z): Investment is all about expectations, it definitely won't be worth over 50 by 2025.
- **烟雨平生 · 2025-03-10T13:03:35.000Z**: Is there any risk of Alibaba being sanctioned by the United States?
- **Jacky88 · 2025-03-10T13:02:40.000Z**: Held for 5 years and took off with the market tailwind.
- **uvz · 2025-03-10T12:20:43.000Z**: Thanks for sharing
- **职业投机人康菲特先生 · 2025-03-10T02:35:06.000Z · 👍 3**: I am bullish on Lei Jun
- **潜力哥 · 2025-03-10T01:13:29.000Z**: Thanks for sharing
- **价格高不等于价值高 · 2025-03-09T15:28:51.000Z**: Thanks for your effort, bro. Appreciate you sharing.
- **唐少 · 2025-03-09T06:55:14.000Z**: Thanks for the sharing, big shot
- **firefoxrui · 2025-03-08T14:28:01.000Z · 👍 1**: The valuation of the auto sector is too conservative. Take XPeng, which is still losing money. If it can turn a profit by 2025, the valuation bubble will be much smaller.
- **小白猪 · 2025-03-08T13:23:04.000Z**: Can I short Xiaomi?
  - **投资之路** (2025-03-08T15:35:03.000Z): You try it
  - **小青睐** (2025-03-08T15:50:37.000Z): You'll behave when your position gets liquidated.
  - **小白猪** (2025-03-09T02:52:02.000Z): What do you mean?
- **韭牛之力 · 2025-03-08T13:09:36.000Z · 👍 8**: Thanks 🙏, adding a personal opinion: Investing in Xiaomi is investing in Lei Jun, just like investing in Tesla is investing in Elon Musk.
  - **投资之路** (2025-03-08T15:34:54.000Z): Indeed
- **Owhathappen · 2025-03-08T11:39:13.000Z · 👍 1**: 🤩Finally got a big bro to crunch the numbers. Thanks bro!