---
title: "ASML: Order decline 'sounds the alarm', will tariffs add insult to injury?"
description: "ASML released its Q1 2025 earnings report (as of March 2025) during the US pre-market session on April 16, 2025 Beijing time. Key points are as follows: 1. Core data: Both guidance and orders declined"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/28972367.md"
published_at: "2025-04-16T11:46:37.000Z"
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# ASML: Order decline 'sounds the alarm', will tariffs add insult to injury?

ASML released its Q1 2025 earnings report (as of March 2025) during US pre-market hours on April 16, 2025, Beijing time. Key highlights:

**1\. Core metrics: Guidance and orders both declined.** ASML reported Q1 2025 revenue of €7.74 billion, meeting market expectations (€7.74B). The YoY growth was primarily driven by continued EUV expansion, while QoQ decline reflected seasonal factors. **Net profit reached €2.36B, up 92.4% YoY,** beating expectations (€2.24B). **Net new orders** for $ASML(ASML.US) **fell 44.5% QoQ to €3.94B, missing estimates (€4B+).**

**2\. Segment performance: EUV growth offset seasonal declines elsewhere.** System sales remained the core revenue driver (≈75% share). EUV shipments grew to 14 units (+3 YoY), while ArFi reached 25 units (+5 YoY). The average lithography system price rose to €74.6M amid higher EUV mix.

**3\. Geographic breakdown: Korea surged while China slowed.** Korea/China/US/Taiwan accounted for 99% of revenue. Korea's share hit 40% due to SK Hynix's memory demand. **China's revenue continued declining QoQ (27% share) as backlog cleared amid export controls.**

**4\. Guidance:** **Q2 revenue forecast of €7.2-7.7B (below €7.76B consensus) with GAAP gross margin of 50-53% (vs 52.3% expected).**

**Dolphin Research's view: Weak guidance and order slump dampen market confidence.**

ASML met its revenue and margin targets, with structural EUV/service mix boosting profitability. However, **the disappointing Q2 outlook (traditionally a seasonal trough) raises concerns** amid: 1) sluggish semiconductor recovery; 2) Intel/Samsung's capex cuts. **The 44% order drop to €3.94B (below €4.06B adjusted expectations) signals no demand rebound.**

Despite maintaining full-year revenue guidance of €30-35B, **market expectations may downgrade to €30-33B.** Ongoing "tariff policy" adjustments add pressure. With semiconductor cycle worries, client capex cuts, and tariffs, **ASML's stock could face volatility without stronger confidence-building measures.** For management commentary, follow Dolphin Research's upcoming call notes.

**Key analysis:**

**1.1 Revenue:** **€7.74B (+46.3% YoY, -seasonal QoQ)**, driven by EUV. **1.2 Gross margin:** **54% (above 52-53% guidance)** from favorable mix. **1.4 Net profit:** **€2.355B (+92.4%)**. Weak Q2 margin guidance (50-53%) suggests Q1 peak.

**2.1 Systems sales:** **€5.74B (+44.7%)** with EUV/ArFi ASPs at €230M/€75.8M. **2.2 Service revenue:** **€2B (+51.1%)** showing stability. Korea (40% share) outperformed China (27%) amid export restrictions.

<End>

Dolphin Research's ASML coverage:

**ASML**

2025/1/29: [China revenue to stabilize near 20% (4Q24 Minutes)](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26879259)

2025/1/29: [The lithography leader returns](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26861740)

2024/10/15: [China business settling at 20% (3Q24 Minutes)](https://longportapp.cn/topics/24510242)

2024/10/15: [ASML: AI's first victim?](https://longportapp.cn/topics/24494305)

Full disclaimer: [Dolphin Research disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.