---
title: "RIVIAN: Surviving 2025, Can the R2 Achieve a 'Comeback Against All Odds'?"
description: "$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) released its Q1 2025 earnings report after the U.S. market closed on May 6, 2025. Key takeaways: 1) Strong Q1 performance with revenue beating expectations: Total revenue r"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/29392248.md"
published_at: "2025-05-07T02:58:44.000Z"
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# RIVIAN: Surviving 2025, Can the R2 Achieve a 'Comeback Against All Odds'?

$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) released its Q1 2025 earnings report after US market close on May 6, 2025. Key takeaways:

**1) Solid Q1 performance with revenue beat:** Total revenue reached $1.24B vs. market expectation of ~$1B, a $250M positive surprise. The beat came from both vehicle revenue ($160M above expectations) and software/services revenue ($100M above expectations).

**2) Gross margin reached low-teens with sequential improvement:** Q1 gross margin hit 16.6%, entering low-teens territory (up 7pp QoQ) - completely opposite to market's expected negative low-teens (-13.5%). **(See full report for detailed explanation of this massive gap)**

Dolphin Research attributes this to: ① Continued improvement in vehicle gross margin (up 6pp to -15% this quarter); ② Pure-profit contribution from Volkswagen's software partnership.

**3) Terrible guidance fuels market concerns:** Management cut 2025 delivery guidance to 40-46k vehicles (+$100M capex) amid tariff headwinds, making 2025 - already a "no-catalyst" year - even tougher.

**Dolphin Research's view:**

While Rivian showed operational improvements this quarter, market focus remains on 2025 challenges - especially tariff impacts. With no new models until R2's 2026 launch, high-price positioning (~$90k ASP), IRA credit risks, and Normal factory retooling disruptions, 2025 looks bleak.

**Tariff impacts:**

① $3k+ BOM cost increase (batteries from CATL/Samsung); ② Supply chain risks (LG 4695 batteries through 2027, rare-earth motor constraints); ③ Guidance cuts (deliveries -5k, capex +$100M).

Silver lining: $7.2B cash + $1B Volkswagen investment (June close) provides runway to R2 production. But DOE's $6.6B loan uncertainty looms.

At 3x 2025 P/S, Rivian isn't cheap. With no catalysts and mounting risks, Dolphin Research sees limited upside currently.

**Details:**

**I. Good Earnings, Bad Guidance**

**1\. Revenue beat from vehicles + software**

$1.24B revenue ($250M beat): Vehicle ASP hit record ~$90k; Software revenue reached $300M (~$200M Volkswagen contribution).

**2\. Gross margin surprise**

16.6% gross margin (vs. expected -13.5%) from: ① Vehicle margin improvement to -15%; ② 36% software margin (pure-profit Volkswagen deal).

**3\. Auto margin still negative but improving**

Ex-regulatory credits: -8.5% (credits contributed $160M). True vehicle margin: -15% (+6pp QoQ).

**Per-unit economics:**

ASP: +$2.5k QoQ to $89k (model mix); Cost: -$2.7k to $102k (depreciation accounting + material savings). Net loss per vehicle: -$13k (improved $5k QoQ).

**II. Awful 2025 Guidance**

Delivery guide cut to 40-46k (-5k); Capex +$100M. Additional risks: ① Potential DOE loan cancellation; ② IRA credit repeal; ③ CARB authority loss.

**III. Cash Runway to R2**

$7.2B cash + $1B Volkswagen funding supports operations through R2 launch. But $6.6B DOE loan uncertainty remains key risk.

**Related Research:**

\[Previous reports and disclosures listed with English titles\]

### Related Stocks

- [RIVN.US - Rivian Automotive](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RIVN.US.md)

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.