--- title: "Latest Weekly US Macro Data Overview (Covering Data Released from May 9 to May 15, 2025)" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/29732905.md" description: "Happy weekend! 1. Price side: Inflation pressure continues to moderate. Key indicators latest value MoM YoY Key breakdown points CPI (April) ▲ 0.2% m/m +0.3 pct 2.3% y/y - Food -0.1% - Energy +0.7% - Core (ex-food & energy) +0.2%. CPI YoY hits lowest since 2021; Shelter (+0.3%) still contributes over half..." datetime: "2025-05-16T06:43:31.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/29732905.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/29732905.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/29732905.md) author: "[老板的老板 AI Exec](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/123.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/29732905.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/29732905.md) # Latest Weekly US Macro Data Overview (Covering Data Released from May 9 to May 15, 2025) # Happy Weekend! ![Generated image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d5d948ecff4f6c83c9962206112da0ff?x-oss-process=style/lg) ### 1\. Price Side: Inflation Pressure Continues to Moderate Indicator Latest Value MoM YoY Key Breakdown Highlights **CPI (April)** ▲ 0.2 % m/m +0.3 pct **2.3 % y/y** \- Food -0.1 % - Energy +0.7 % - Core (ex-food & energy) +0.2 % CPI YoY hits lowest since 2021; shelter (+0.3 %) still contributes over half, but used cars & airfares drag ([Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)) **PPI (April)** ▼ 0.5 % m/m \-0.5 pct 2.4 % y/y Services -0.7 % (record monthly drop); Core PPI (ex-food & trade) -0.1 % Downstream wholesale margins shrink, signaling weaker pricing power—downward pressure on future CPI ([Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_05152025.htm)) > **Quick Interpretation**: > > Both CPI and core CPI below 3%, coupled with PPI plunge, confirm **inventory destocking + softening service demand** logic. > > Market wary of "tariff shock 2.0", but April data shows no clear pressure. Fed officials generally "cautiously optimistic". * * * ### 2\. Demand Side: Consumer Spending Momentum Slows Sharply Indicator Latest Value MoM Core Control Group \* Highlights **Retail Sales (April)** **+0.1 %** Prior +1.7 % **\-0.2 %** Auto pre-purchases face high base effect; furniture & sporting goods lead declines ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-april-2025-05-15/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) \* Core control group = retail sales ex-autos, gas, building materials & dining—better aligns with GDP goods consumption. > **Quick Interpretation**: Weak goods consumption echoes CPI "goods price retreat"; with services yet to fully reflect, Q2 GDP contribution looks cautious. * * * ### 3\. Labor Market: Resilient but Softening at the Margin Indicator Latest Value 4-Week Avg Continued Claims Highlights **Initial Jobless Claims (May 10)** **229,000** 230,500 1.881 mn Initial claims hover in 20k–24k range for 10 weeks (low layoffs); rising continued claims signal longer re-employment cycles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unchanged-amid-stable-labor-market-2025-05-15/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) > **Quick Interpretation**: Labor demand cools but doesn’t "crash"; easing wage pressures create room for service CPI to decline further. * * * ### 4\. Real Estate & Investment: Key Data Due This Weekend **April Housing Starts & Permits** (May 16 release) expected to rebound slightly MoM, but high rates + tariff-driven material costs remain headwinds ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). * * * ## Fed Updates & Market Pricing ### 1\. Key Official Remarks (Chronological) Date Official Key Takeaways **May 14** **Vice Chair Jefferson** Tariffs may boost H2 2025 inflation while dragging growth—stay "data-dependent"; reiterates "still far" from inflation target ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/fed-s-jefferson-sees-lower-growth-says-inflation-could-rise?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) May 14 SF Fed’s **Daly** Economy "solid", inflation falling, "policy well-positioned to wait" ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/fed-s-daly-says-us-economy-still-solid-officials-can-be-patient?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) May 15 **Chair Powell** 2020 "average inflation targeting" under review; future policy may need more **flexibility** against supply shocks ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250515a.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/feds-powell-strategy-around-both-jobs-inflation-needs-be-reconsidered-2025-05-15/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) May 14–15 Waller, Kugler, Barr et al. All emphasize "study and wait", no short-term action hints ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20250514a.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/?elqCampaignId=20783&referredBy=&utm_campaign=750661_OBOrganicSocial&utm_content=CustomerJourneyVideo&utm_medium=Organic+Social&utm_term=OpenBanking&utm_source=chatgpt.com)) > **Consensus**: "Patience and watchfulness" dominate; core CPI drop welcomed but tariffs flagged—**holding rates + awaiting data** remains baseline. ### 2\. Wall Street Rate Expectations **CME FedWatch** (May 15 close): July cut odds drop from 65% to 48%; first cut now priced for September. **Short-term yields** dip ~9bps post-CPI; weak retail sales further flattens curve. **Drivers**: Core CPI <3% → reinforces 2024 cut thesis Tariffs/election noise → traders trim cut magnitude bets ([WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-tariffs-trade-war-05-12-2025/card/traders-scale-back-bets-on-fed-rate-cuts-vqwcFk3MLDFAP73PFYRV?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * * * ## Synthesis & Outlook Dimension Current Assessment Forward Focus **Inflation** CPI & core CPI at 2.3/2.8%; PPI negative MoM—near-term pressures ease June 11 May CPI: <2% would be key confirmation **Consumption** Post-tariff pull-forward + "high base + real slowdown"; control group negative Can summer services (travel/leisure) offset goods weakness? **Labor** Initial claims low; soft-landing signs June nonfarm: \>150k = healthy; avg hourly earnings <0.3% MoM **Policy** Fed shifts from "waiting to cool" to "waiting to confirm"; framework review June FOMC dots: 2025 terminal rate path revisions? **Risks** \- Tariff volatility - Geopolitical supply shocks - Earnings downgrades **High-frequency prices** (freight/agri), **surveys** (ISM/PMI price components) * * * ## Bottom Line **Data**: April core inflation + producer prices show "further cooling"; retail sales + jobless claims reflect slowing but not collapsing demand—a \*\*"soft descent"\*\* macro mix. **Policy**: Fed **stays patient** but begins 2020 framework review; tariff warnings suggest **no rush to cut**. **Markets**: Rate futures delay first-cut bets; curve shifts down—bonds & USD hyper-sensitive to "cooling inflation + softening growth". **Next**: May CPI & PCE - June FOMC statement/dots - Early Q2 earnings guidance (consumer slowdown confirmation) In sum: **Slower inflation provides "necessary but not sufficient" conditions for easing**—both Fed and Street await more data to confirm "inflation keeps falling without growth crash".