--- title: "ROCKET LAB 对 SPACEX" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/29776390.md" description: "Electron rocket compared to Falcon 9 $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) 1. Basic parameter comparison indicators Electron Falcon 9 First orbit 2018 2010 2025 cumulative orbital launches 63 times: 59 successes / 4 failures → 93.6% success rate 486 times: 483 successes / 3 failures +1 partial failure → 99.4% success rate 2025 single year launches (as of 5-15) 11 times 55 times Low orbit payload capacity 320 kg @ 500 ..." datetime: "2025-05-17T10:46:10.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/29776390.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/29776390.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/29776390.md) author: "[老板的老板 AI Exec](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/123.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/29776390.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/29776390.md) # ROCKET LAB 对 SPACEX Comparison between Electron and Falcon 9 $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) **1\. Basic Parameter Comparison** **Indicator** **Electron** **Falcon 9** First Orbit 2018 2010 Cumulative Orbital Launches by 2025 63 times: 59 successful / 4 failed → 93.6% success rate 486 times: 483 successful / 3 failed +1 partial failure → 99.4% success rate Launches in 2025 (as of 5-15) 11 times 55 times Low Orbit Payload Capacity 320 kg @ 500 km SSO 22.8 t @ 28° LEO (reusable mode ≈ 17 t) Single Launch Price Approx. 7.5 M USD ≈ 67 M USD (Block 5, 2023 quote) Cost per kg (full load) ≈ 25 k USD/kg ≈ 4 k USD/kg (full load) / ≈ 20 k USD/kg (average load) Recovery Strategy Helicopter aerial capture → changed to sea retrieval, validating re-flight One stage reusable after separation, can be reused 20+ times **2\. Current Commercial Positioning** **Dimension** **Electron** **Falcon 9** Target Market Small satellites sensitive to size/timing, single technology validation, government "tactical rapid launch" (Responsive Launch) Starlink/Kuiper and other large constellation main forces, government/military large payloads, commercial GEO-transfer & rideshare Advantages • Minimum 7–10 days fairing customization • Direct delivery to high inclination SSO, sun-synchronous dawn orbit • Small satellites do not need to "carpool" and wait • Industry lowest $/kg • High reliability + ultra-high launch rhythm (≈5 days/time) • Block 5 can flip 9-day record, price lock competition Disadvantages • $/kg high; easily snatched by F9 rideshare 5k USD/kg • Success rate still converging at 93-95% • Fixed service window; small satellite arrangement restricted by shared orbit • Repeated recovery still has vibration/environment concerns for high gain payloads **3\. Technical Evolution Path** **Company** **Announced Roadmap** **Potential Impact on Competitive Landscape** Rocket Lab Electron-R (reusable engine), Neutron (13 t reusable, medium) first flight in 2025-H2; Photon bus + satellite on-orbit manufacturing If Neutron succeeds, it will push RL from "small rocket pure segment" to the market below Falcon 9 10 t level, capturing defense LEO groups, civilian batch constellation early deployment SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5 performance peaks; Starship 150 t reusable heavy enters late test flight Starship cost collapse effect (<100 USD/kg) once landed, will further compress all ≤20 t rocket commercial space; Falcon 9 still maintains high frequency until Starship fully takes over **4\. Conclusion of Future 5-Year Commercial Competition** 1. Short-term (2025-2026): Differentiated coexistence - Electron maintains <500 kg block "timeliness + exclusive orbit" positioning; undertakes NRO, USSF rapid missions and private small constellation first batch. - Falcon 9 continues to monopolize \>500 kg market and rideshare economy class; becomes the lowest insurance fee choice with 99% success rate. 2. Mid-term (2026-2028): Watch Neutron vs. Block - If Neutron is on schedule and reaches 13 t→300 USD/kg target, it will cut into Falcon 9 rideshare price band below, but higher than Starship's mid-range track, forming a Mini-OneWeb ecosystem with "star-rocket integration" satellite manufacturing. - SpaceX maintains Block 5 until Starship fully takes over; if Starship mass production is delayed, Falcon 9 will continue to capture 1-15 t orders, Neutron still faces price disadvantage. 3. Long-term (after 2028): Possible transition to "economies of scale crushing" - Once Starship cost ladder is realized (<50 USD/kg, single ship turnover <3 days), Electron/Neutron needs to rely on defense "tactical" scenarios and very high inclination/maneuvering orbit and other niche demands to survive. - Government responsive launch (hour-level preparation) and "instant network replenishment" strategy will be the last moat for small rockets. Comprehensive Judgment In the visible cycle, Falcon 9 remains the world's most commercially competitive general orbital freight platform; whether Electron (and subsequent Neutron) can build a long-term barrier depends on its deep cultivation in "rapid launch + vertical satellite manufacturing + government/security-level demand", and whether it can approach the psychological price line of Falcon 9 rideshare on the cost side. ### Related Stocks - [Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RKLB.US.md) ## Comments (4) - **耐心定投指数 · 2025-05-17T10:53:00.000Z**: Boss, what do you think about this US credit downgrade👀 - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2025-05-17T10:57:55.000Z): 1. The market feels okay after hours, not too outrageous. It seems a bit immune. Of course, we still have to wait for Monday's pre-market data; - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2025-05-17T10:58:28.000Z): 2. The most important thing is what the FED will do. Now everyone is helping to find reasons and excuses, the USD interest rate is too high. But the FED remains unmoved, what to do? - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2025-05-17T10:58:44.000Z): 3. I have freed up some funds to see if there are any opportunities to buy some good bargains.