--- title: "\"Play the new stock every day\", A review of the performance of IPO subscriptions in the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of 2025" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31490713.md" description: "Since its establishment in November 2024, IPO Daily has focused on analyzing and strategizing Hong Kong stock IPOs. In just over half a year, we've gained nearly 20,000 followers. We sincerely appreciate everyone's support and are honored by your recognition. Today is July 4, 2025. I originally planned to do a mid-year review a few days ago, but the recent flood of new IPOs has kept us busy. Now that the IPO analysis is finally complete, I've found some time to relax, so the review is here as promised. Without further ado, let's see the results..." datetime: "2025-07-04T08:03:54.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31490713.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/31490713.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/31490713.md) author: "[每天打个新](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16231871.md)" --- # "Play the new stock every day", A review of the performance of IPO subscriptions in the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of 2025 Since its establishment in November 2024, Daily IPO has focused on analyzing and strategizing Hong Kong stock IPOs. In just over half a year, we've gained nearly 20,000 followers. We sincerely appreciate your support and are honored by your recognition. Today is July 4, 2025. I originally planned to do a mid-year review a few days ago, but the flood of new IPOs has been relentless. Now that the IPO analysis is finally done, I’ve stolen a moment of leisure to deliver this review as promised. Enough talk—let’s get to the results. The chart above summarizes all Hong Kong IPOs we covered in the first half of 2025, ranked by our comprehensive star ratings. A quick refresher on our rating system: **One star**: Pure joke companies—no idea why the HKEX approved them. None earned this "honor" in the first half of the year, but one stock in a recent IPO did. Check my article from two days ago if you’re curious. **Two stars**: Companies with glaring issues, likely multiple. High probability of breaking issue price under normal market conditions. **Three stars**: Clear weaknesses (fundamentals or external factors) but some merits. Not must-buy, but small bets with controlled positions are okay. **Four stars**: Generally solid with manageable risks and strong upside potential. Worth active participation. **Five stars**: Strong fundamentals, no obvious flaws. All-in worthy. Knowing most of you hate dense tables, I’ve prepared a summary. _(Note: Gains/losses exclude manipulated two- and three-star stocks.)_ Four-star stocks had the highest average gains, with 100% dark pool rally rates. Does that mean they’re better all-in bets than five-star stocks? High risk, high reward. Four-star stocks are volatile—worth heavy participation, but all-in depends on your risk appetite. For example, during Innolight Biotech’s IPO, Trump suddenly imposed tariffs. Though tensions eased on the last day (I urged everyone in the group to buy), going all-in with a top hammer bid required caution. Five-star stocks are different—flawless fundamentals, easy all-ins. Their dark pool returns are also more stable (0.1 lower deviation than four-star stocks). For example, CATL only rose 9.13% in the dark pool, but you knew it was a safe bet. Sanhua Intelligent Control was an exception—its fundamentals were solid, but the drop was due to allocation methods and sentiment (blame Haitian Flavouring). No worries—we bought heavily in the dark pool, and many turned profits before listing, gaining 16% within three days. Three-star stocks? Mostly small losses, with two outliers: Jinhong Shares and Auntie Shanghai. Jinhong surged due to deep discounts and A-share liquidity from inclusion in the Stock Connect program. Auntie Shanghai? I wasn’t optimistic, but the massive margin financing (thousands of times oversubscribed) forced my hand. To avoid FOMO, I went all-in with a top hammer bid. Two-star stocks are the most interesting. The table excludes manipulated allocations and Holy Cradle. If included? I LOL’d—5 of 11 stocks were manipulated, plus one rigged (Holy Cradle). Including them, the average dark pool gain hit 20.9%! Does that make two-star stocks must-buys? Weirdly, yes—if you’re gambling on manipulation. These stocks are so bad they’d likely crash without tricks. Of the five unmanipulated two-star stocks, Nanshan Aluminum and Zhengli New Energy rose 0.19% and 0.12% in the dark pool. The others—Paige Biotech, Metalight, and CaoCao Mobility—fell 3.72%, 14.77%, and 14.16% in the dark pool, then 25.9%, 30.26%, and 14.16% on debut. Betting on manipulation? Fine as occasional lottery tickets, but not as a strategy. Small bets won’t win much; big bets risk extreme losses if the tricks fail. If you insist on gambling, go ahead—ratings are just tools. Good luck and have fun. Why single out Holy Cradle? I rated it two stars and later admitted I might’ve misjudged. Turns out I didn’t—it’s now up just 1.52% from IPO, trapping many. Some ask: It surged in the dark pool and on debut—why didn’t you predict that? Sorry, I’m an analyst, not a fortune-teller. I can’t predict rigged games. Why include manipulated four-star Yijian Health? Because we called it fair and square. Final note: All ratings are documented in articles or chat logs. Since CATL, we’ve publishing ratings publicly—they’re now private. Doubters can DM me for screenshots (but send a red packet for my effort). First-half summary: 4-5 star stocks had a 90% win rate, averaging 36.8% dark pool gains and 38.9% debut gains. You’re a champ for reading this far—here’s a bonus. Many beg for IPO lottery rate analysis. It’s unreliable (public allocation ratios, subscriber counts, and methods are guesswork), but by popular demand, here’s a rough estimate—take it with a grain of salt. (You can’t cancel orders now anyway—why stress?) ## Comments (2) - **黄大文 · 2025-07-08T00:10:13.000Z**: How to join the group, teacher? - **Johnny20 · 2025-07-06T00:40:58.000Z**: Two stars, full of tricks and callbacks, gambling tickets, haha😊