--- title: "Mourinho β€’ A bad start to the second half, has the Hang Seng Index's upward trend ended? 06-07 Review" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31501910.md" description: "Hello everyone, time flies so fast, it's time for me, Mo Shuai, to share my weekly summary and review. Writing long articles isn't easy, so I sincerely hope everyone can give me more attention and support πŸ™πŸ™. Looking back at this week's market trend, I mentioned last week that the $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) should further break through this year's high of ~24,874 points to successfully confirm the arrival of a bull market..." datetime: "2025-07-06T05:09:58.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31501910.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/31501910.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/31501910.md) author: "[ζ‘©εΈ₯](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/8782297.md)" --- # Mourinho β€’ A bad start to the second half, has the Hang Seng Index's upward trend ended? 06-07 Review Hello everyone, time flies so fast, it's time for me, Mo Shuai, to share my weekly summary and review. Writing long articles is not easy, so I sincerely hope everyone can give me more attention and support πŸ™πŸ™ **Review of this week's market trends** Last week, I mentioned that the market trend of the $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) should further break through this year's high of ~24,874 points to confirm the arrival of a bull market. I also mentioned that for the market to break through the peak, it must rely on blue-chip heavyweight tech leaders like $TENCENT(00700.HK), $BABA-W(09988.HK), $MEITUAN(03690.HK), and $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK). Unfortunately, this week, instead of seeing a surge in ATMX, the market experienced further decline, with ATMX falling more sharply than before. Particularly, northbound capital continued to sell Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, while Meituan saw continuous net inflows. However, Meituan was dragged down by negative news that one of its major shareholders, South Africa's Naspers, might reduce its stake, causing Meituan's stock price to hit new lows, making it the worst performer. Additionally, $BABA-W(09988.HK) issued RMB 12 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds. It's worth noting that these bonds are convertible into shares of $ALI HEALTH(00241.HK), meaning Alibaba will reduce its stake in Ali Health, which dragged down $ALI HEALTH(00241.HK)'s stock price significantly that day. Finally, $AIA(01299.HK) saw four large block trades before the market opened on Friday, involving over HKD 26.7 billion. Although AIA did not issue any special announcement, I personally believe this was likely a major shareholder reducing their stake. As a result, the market began to consolidate after the rapid surge at the end of June, with Friday's decline being particularly sharp. Not only did it break through the support level of 24,000 points, but it also filled the gap left by the previous rise, hitting the week's low of ~23,690 points. Although bottom-fishing funds later entered the market, causing a quick rebound and briefly reclaiming the 24,000-point level, the market ultimately closed at 23,916 points, still below 24,000. The only consolation is that the market has not yet fallen below last week's low of ~23,272 points. Overall, the trend and pattern suggest that this is just a consolidation phase after a rapid rise, with the market still holding at high levels. In other words, the mid-term upward trend remains intact. The market's inability to continue last week's upward trend this week was mainly due to the poor performance of its own blue-chip heavyweights rather than external factors. It's worth noting that the three major U.S. indicesβ€”$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US), $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US), and $S&P 500(.SPX.US)β€”are still in a bullish uptrend, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 repeatedly hitting record highs. Meanwhile, the A-share market's $SSE Index(000001.SH) also continued to set new yearly highs, reaching ~3,497 points, just a step away from 3,500. Once it breaks through 3,500, I believe the A-share bull market will arrive soon. However, what surprised many was that the market failed to follow the upward trends of U.S. and A-shares this week, which was quite unexpected. Personally, I think the market is cautious due to the upcoming tariff storm deadline next week. Although the market was dragged down by major blue-chip heavyweights, some blue chips performed quite well this week, supporting the market. For example, the pharmaceutical sector, which has recently attracted significant capital, saw strong performances from $HANSOH PHARMA(03692.HK), $SBP GROUP(01177.HK), $CSPC PHARMA(01093.HK), and $WUXI BIO(02269.HK). Additionally, the gaming sector performed very well this week, with stocks like $GALAXY ENT(00027.HK) and $Sands China Ltd.HK rising sharply. Among blue-chip solar stocks, $XINYI SOLAR(00968.HK) stood out with a strong surge this week. In summary, the market fell by 368 points this week, closing at 23,916. In terms of trading volume, due to only four trading days, the total turnover was HKD 981.5 billion, similar to last week. The average daily turnover remained above HKD 240 billion, indicating strong momentum. As long as there is trading momentum, it bodes well for future market development. From a technical perspective, the market opened low and closed lower this week, with the week's low of ~23,690 points occurring on Friday. This low was higher than last week's low of ~23,272 points, while the week's high of ~24,372 points was lower than last week's high of ~24,533 points. On the weekly chart, the market closed with a bearish candle, but the overall trend remains in a consolidation phase at high levels, with the upward channel still intact. Therefore, the market may consolidate further before resuming its upward trend, with short-term resistance at last week's high of ~24,533 points and support at this week's low of ~23,690 points. **Outlook for next week** Before the holiday, the three major U.S. indicesβ€”$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US), $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US), and $S&P 500(.SPX.US)β€”all surged, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs again, unaffected by the better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data. Instead, the market remains optimistic about the Fed's potential rate cuts. This week's U.S. market rally was led by $Apple(AAPL.US) and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), with Apple finally rebounding to above $210 and NVIDIA briefly surpassing $160, showing strong momentum. Benefiting from the U.S. market's strength and the A-share market's upward trend, the $SSE Index(000001.SH) is eyeing a breakthrough above **3,500** points. As long as U.S. and A-shares remain strong, I believe the market will soon end its post-surge consolidation and resume its upward trend. The only thing to watch is Trump's latest announcement that he has signed 12 trade letters, set to be issued on Monday, which could stir market volatility. I hope it will be a positive signal, so let's wait and see next week's market trends πŸ˜‰πŸ˜‰ **This week's highlights** 1\. The market's focus remains on $GUOTAI JUNAN I(01788.HK) after it obtained a virtual license, with northbound capital continuously flowing into the stock, driving its price up. This also boosted $China Everbright Ltd (165.HK) by over 10%. 2\. The market's focus this week was also on IPOs, with the most surprising IPOs including $UNISOUND(09678.HK) and $IFBH(06603.HK), which performed strongly on their debut. 3\. The biotech and pharmaceutical sector was also eye-catching this week, with $AKESO(09926.HK) rising over 25% and hitting a record high. Another standout was $TRANSTHERA-B(02617.HK), which surged over 22% this week, accumulating a gain of over 1.5x since its listing. **This week's trades** $LI NING(02331.HK)~ This week, I took advantage of Li Ning's pullback to HKD 16.8 to add a short-term position. I believe traditional consumer stocks, especially sports-related ones, are starting to perform well, particularly after noticing that $Nike(NKE.US) has rebounded strongly from its lows. I remain confident that Li Ning's worst days are behind it and that its stock price will regain its former glory. **Portfolio performance** $BABA-W(09988.HK)~ Alibaba's stock price fell sharply this week due to the issuance of RMB 12 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds. The overall trend has shifted from sideways movement to a bottom-searching pattern, with even the strong support level of ~HKD 110 broken. The next support level is ~HKD 105, not far from the current price. I hope Alibaba can stabilize above HKD 105 next week and reclaim HKD 110, at least recovering the 10-day moving average. $Sunac China(01918.HK)~ The domestic property sector saw a short-term rally this week, with Sunac briefly rising above HKD 1.6 before falling back to HKD 1.49. However, it did not drop below HKD 1.5 again. I still believe that if capital rotates, the property sector will be next, as only a surge in domestic property stocks can revive market sentiment. Short-term target remains HKD 1.7. **Future strategy** As I've mentioned before, bank deposit interest rates are currently low, so for investors seeking dividends, investing in high-dividend ETFs is a good strategy. One such ETF is $BOS CSOE HIDV(03437.HK), which is equivalent to investing in a basket of high-dividend stocks. This ETF tracks the "CSI Guoxin Hong Kong Connect Central SOE Dividend Index," with the advantage of diversifying investments across multiple stocks to reduce single-stock risk. The downside is that returns may be more average, without extreme highs. However, the primary purpose of dividend investing is stability, and this ETF offers relatively stable payouts. Notably, $BOS CSOE HIDV(03437.HK) pays dividends twice a year (usually in March and September), as decided by the manager. In short, high-dividend ETFs are suitable for investors seeking stable cash flow or those too busy to pick stocks. Additionally, the arrival of stablecoins has been driving up cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin nearing its all-time high of $11,000. Investors bullish on Bitcoin breaking new highs can consider Bitcoin-related ETFs like $BOS HSK BTC(03008.HK). Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin but is a good buy-low opportunity, with $BOS HSK ETH(03009.HK) being a solid choice. **Summary** Entering the second half of the year, the market has shown signs of fatigue, clearly in a consolidation phase after a rapid rise. The main reason for the market's weakness is the sudden downturn in blue-chip heavyweight tech stocks like ATM, which are continuously searching for bottoms. However, the overall market remains resilient, as it has not yet fallen below last week's low. Next week, the market will focus on Trump's latest tariff policies, which could sway the market either way. Finally, for the market to resume its upward trend and start a new rally, ATM stocks must bottom out and rebound strongly. Otherwise, the market will continue to consolidate. If you enjoyed this week's summary, please give it a like, πŸ‘β™₯️, and feel free to share 😊😊 Thank you for your continued support and follow πŸ™‡β€β™‚οΈπŸ™‡β€β™‚οΈ **The above content is for personal sharing purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risks; proceed with caution.** ### Related Stocks - [09678.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09678.HK.md) - [03692.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03692.HK.md) - [01928.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01928.HK.md) - [SCHYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCHYY.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [09926.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09926.HK.md) - [02617.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02617.HK.md) - [03437.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03437.HK.md) - [00HSI.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00HSI.HK.md) - [01788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01788.HK.md) - [06603.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06603.HK.md) - [02331.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02331.HK.md) - [01918.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01918.HK.md) - [01810.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01810.HK.md) - [81810.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/81810.HK.md) - [HXXD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HXXD.SG.md) - [XIACY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XIACY.US.md) - [01093.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01093.HK.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [03690.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03690.HK.md) - [83690.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/83690.HK.md) - [HMTD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HMTD.SG.md) - [MPNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MPNGY.US.md) - [03008.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03008.HK.md) - [03009.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03009.HK.md) - [02269.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02269.HK.md) - [WXXWY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WXXWY.US.md) - [00027.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00027.HK.md) - [GXYYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GXYYY.US.md) - [NKE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NKE.US.md) - [000001.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000001.CN.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [HBBD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBBD.SG.md) - [BABA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [01299.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01299.HK.md) - [81299.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/81299.HK.md) - [AAGIY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAGIY.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [00968.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00968.HK.md) - [00700.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00700.HK.md) - [HTCD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HTCD.SG.md) - [TCEHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TCEHY.US.md) - [TCTZF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TCTZF.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [01177.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01177.HK.md) - [00241.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00241.HK.md) ## Comments (3) - **菜菜同学 Β· 2025-07-07T11:59:29.000Z**: I feel a pullback is coming. It has been rising continuously for a long time, and it seems to be losing momentum. - **ζ‘©εΈ₯** (2025-07-07T14:25:41.000Z): Yes, after all, it has risen too much, it needs to pull back a bit to be healthier. - **CohenLiew** (2025-07-08T14:36:40.000Z): But it has already reached a new high. Should it consolidate for a while before going up again?