--- title: "RXRX's prospects and expectations for the next three years: High risk, high return!" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31739758.md" description: "$Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) Drug development brings better-than-expected returns, technology and platform collaborations ensure stable company operations, bullish in the long term 😀1. Progress in the R&D pipeline Recursion's prospects for the next three years mainly depend on its clinical-stage drugs (REC-4881, REC-617, REC-1245, REC-3565) and the continuous optimization of its technology platform (Recursion OS)..." datetime: "2025-07-12T02:48:26.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31739758.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/31739758.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/31739758.md) author: "[陆家嘴老毛桃](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18360260.md)" --- # RXRX's prospects and expectations for the next three years: High risk, high return! $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) Drug development brings better-than-expected returns, while technology and platform collaborations ensure stable company operations. Bullish in the long term 😀 **1\. Progress in R&D Pipeline** Recursion's outlook for the next three years primarily depends on its clinical-stage drugs (REC-4881, REC-617, REC-1245, REC-3565) and the continuous optimization of its technology platform (Recursion OS). Below are the key drivers and expectations: •**REC-4881 (Familial Adenomatous Polyposis, FAP)**: •**Progress**: Preliminary data in May 2025 showed a median reduction in polyp burden in 43% of patients (3 out of 6) after 13 weeks, with 50% of patients improving Spigelman staging. Safety was manageable (16% of patients experienced Grade 3 TRAEs). •**Expectations**: Further data will be released in the second half of 2025. If the data remains positive, it could become a First-in-Class therapy for FAP, filling the gap of no FDA-approved treatments. Phase 2 trials are expected to complete in 2026, with potential Phase 3 trials or regulatory submissions in 2027-2028. •**Market Potential**: FAP is a rare disease with a small market size, but orphan drug status and fast-track designation could bring pricing advantages and accelerated approval. •**REC-617 (Advanced Solid Tumors)**: •**Progress**: Q4 2024 reports showed that REC-617 (a CDK7 inhibitor) demonstrated durable partial responses in metastatic ovarian cancer and disease stability in various solid tumor patients, indicating potential Best-in-Class efficacy. •**Expectations**: Additional monotherapy data will be released in the second half of 2025, with Phase 1/2 trials potentially completing in 2026-2027. If efficacy persists, Phase 3 trials or collaborative development could begin by 2028. •**Market Potential**: The CDK inhibitor market is competitive (e.g., Pfizer's Palbociclib), but REC-617's AI-optimized design may offer differentiated advantages. •**REC-1245 (Biomarker-Selected Solid Tumors and Relapsed/Refractory Lymphoma)**: •**Progress**: The DAHLIA trial (Phase 1/2) is evaluating the safety and pharmacokinetics (PK) of the RBM39 inhibitor. •**Expectations**: Early Phase 1 data will be released in the first half of 2026, with the trial potentially continuing into 2027-2028. •**Market Potential**: Biomarker-selected tumors have significant market potential, but more data is needed to validate efficacy. •**REC-3565 (B-Cell Malignancies)**: •**Progress**: The EXCELERIZE trial (Phase 1) recently began, aiming to avoid UGT1A1 toxicity and optimize efficacy. •**Expectations**: Early Phase 1 data will be released in the second half of 2026, with the trial potentially completing in 2028. •**Market Potential**: The B-cell malignancy market (e.g., non-Hodgkin lymphoma) is large, and successful development could generate significant revenue. •**Preclinical Pipeline**: •**REC-7735 (Breast Cancer)**: A candidate drug is expected to be nominated in the second half of 2025, with Phase 1 trials potentially starting in 2026-2027. •**REC-102 (Hypophosphatasia, HPP)**: IND-enabling studies are underway, with Phase 1 trials expected to begin in the second half of 2026 and preliminary data potentially available by 2028. **2\. Technology Platform and Collaborations** •**Recursion OS Platform**: •The company continues to optimize Recursion OS, generating trillions of biochemical relationship data. Combined with the BioHive-2 supercomputer and collaborations with NVIDIA (e.g., the Boltzmann-2 molecular modeling platform), drug discovery efficiency has significantly improved. •In 2024, Recursion launched **LOWE** (LLM-Orchestrated Workflow Engine), with Bayer as the first external test user, potentially generating additional revenue. •**Expectations**: Over the next three years, the platform may generate more candidate drugs, particularly in oncology and rare diseases, enhancing pipeline diversity. •**Collaboration Revenue**: •Partnerships with Sanofi, Roche-Genentech, and Bayer provide stable revenue. In Q1 2025, collaboration revenue was **$15 million**, slightly up from **$14 million** in the same period in 2024. •Sanofi has paid a **$7 million** milestone payment, with potential for additional milestone revenue. •**Expectations**: From 2025-2028, collaboration revenue is expected to grow steadily, especially as Roche-Genentech and Bayer projects reach critical stages, potentially bringing tens of millions in milestone payments. **3\. Financial Outlook** •**Revenue Growth**: •Full-year 2024 revenue was **$58.8 million**, up **32%** YoY, primarily from collaboration revenue. •Q1 2025 revenue was **$15 million**, up **9.84%** YoY but below industry averages. •**Expectations**: Over the next three years, revenue is expected to grow at a low double-digit rate (10-20%), mainly driven by collaboration revenue and potential licensing agreements. Drug commercialization may begin after 2028, significantly boosting revenue. •**R&D and Operating Expenses**: •Q1 2025 R&D expenses were **$130 million**, up sharply from **$68 million** in the same period in 2024, reflecting post-Exscientia merger costs. •Net loss was **$202.5 million**, up from **$97 million** YoY, indicating profitability pressure. •**Expectations**: From 2025-2028, R&D expenses may remain high ($150-200 million annually), but strategic restructuring will reduce overall operating costs. Cash flow is expected to support operations until mid-2027. •**Cash Flow and Financing**: •The company has a robust cash reserve, expected to support operations until **mid-2027**. •**Expectations**: Additional financing (via equity or debt) may be needed over the next three years, especially if the pipeline enters Phase 3 trials or commercialization. Positive data readouts could attract more investors. **4\. Market and Competitive Landscape** •**Industry Position**: •Recursion is a leader in AI-driven biotech, with advantages in dataset scale and computational power compared to competitors like Absci and Schrödinger. •The Exscientia merger enhanced AI drug development capabilities, potentially positioning Recursion for growth by 2028. However, professional financial institutions have mixed views on its valuation and prospects. •**Competitive Risks**: •The CDK inhibitor (e.g., REC-617) and RBM39 inhibitor (e.g., REC-1245) markets are highly competitive, potentially impacting future revenue. •Rare disease markets (e.g., FAP, HPP) are limited in size, which may constrain revenue growth. **5\. Risks and Challenges** •**R&D Risks**: High clinical trial failure rates mean REC-4881 and REC-617 may not meet efficacy or safety expectations. •**Financial Pressure**: Sustained high R&D expenses and net losses may necessitate additional financing, diluting shareholder equity. •**Market Volatility**: Biotech stocks are highly volatile, and negative data could trigger significant price drops. •**Regulatory Uncertainty**: FDA and EMA approval processes may delay commercialization timelines. **6\. Three-Year Outlook Summary** •**Optimistic Scenario**: •REC-4881's breakthrough in FAP could lead to orphan drug market success, with potential regulatory approval in 2027-2028 and initial product revenue. •If REC-617 and REC-1245 demonstrate Best-in-Class efficacy, they may attract major pharma partnerships or acquisitions, boosting valuation. •Continued platform optimization could generate new candidates, enhancing pipeline value. •The stock price could reach **$8-12**, with market cap potentially doubling to **$5-6 billion** on positive data. •**Base Scenario**: •Steady pipeline progress without major breakthroughs, with revenue primarily from collaboration milestones. •Stock price may fluctuate between **$5-8**, with market cap around **$3 billion**. •Cost optimization extends cash flow support. •**Pessimistic Scenario**: •Key trial failures (e.g., REC-4881 or REC-617) could drive the stock price down to **$3-4**. •Increased financing needs may dilute equity and erode market confidence. •Market cap could fall below **$2 billion**. ### Related Stocks - [RXRX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RXRX.US.md)