--- title: "What is the essence of Trump trading?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31967161.md" description: "On Wednesday, Comrade Trump conducted a panic test on the U.S. capital market, threatening to replace Powell. However, the results were: 1. Gold surged (safe-haven sentiment heated up) $Gold(IN00380.US) $Gold(20328.HK) 2. U.S. Treasury yields rose (expectations for future rate cuts increased, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and U.S. Treasuries suffered heavy selling) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) 3. U.S. stocks fell intraday (concerns about the Fed's independence..." datetime: "2025-07-18T09:40:54.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31967161.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/31967161.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/31967161.md) author: "[财经俏佳人Shelly](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16538470.md)" --- # What is the essence of Trump trading? On Wednesday, Comrade Trump conducted a panic test on the U.S. capital markets, threatening to replace Powell. However, the results were: 1. Gold surged (risk aversion sentiment heated up) $Gold(IN00380.US) $Gold(20328.HK) 2\. U.S. Treasury yields rose (expectations for future rate cuts increased, leading to lower Treasury yields and heavy selling of U.S. bonds) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) 3\. U.S. stocks fell intraday (concerns over Fed independence and doubts about the dollar's authority) 4\. The U.S. dollar index declined (loosening of the Fed's monetary policy anchor) From Shelly's perspective, if Powell is replaced, the new Fed chair will undoubtedly be a Trump loyalist, likely as dovish as him, implying significant rate cuts—perhaps even the 3 basis points Trump expects. Rate cuts would benefit businesses and the private sector in the short term. However, the most critical consequence is that the Fed would no longer be independent but instead become a government puppet, undermining the anchor of monetary policy. This, in turn, would redefine the interest rate curve, inflation path, and dollar credibility, shaping a much broader narrative in the long run. **Thus, Trump's panic test is essentially an attempt to reshape the macro narrative. This is not a simple blunder but a challenge to the Fed's pricing power.** **Shelly has summed up the essence of Comrade Trump's trading strategy—no need for results, just statements to rewrite pricing structures and break market neutrality assumptions.** **Now, let’s talk about a few stocks.** $Microsoft(MSFT.US) **OpenAI aims for autonomy.** Previously, OpenAI served as Microsoft's AI supplier, but it is now developing an Office-like suite, allowing users to create and edit Excel and PPT documents directly in ChatGPT without opening Microsoft's software. This move expands OpenAI's downstream business, directly challenging its biggest benefactor. Moreover, OpenAI doesn’t need Microsoft's authorization for this feature, as formats like .xlsx and .pptx were open-sourced long ago. Since ChatGPT runs on Microsoft Azure servers, OpenAI could turn the tables. If ChatGPT evolves from a large language model into a full-fledged office tool, it could directly threaten Microsoft's core business. However, a complete disruption won’t happen overnight. We’ll need to monitor OpenAI’s pricing strategy. For now, Microsoft, as the second wave of the AI era, has been unstoppable since tariff recoveries, dipping only 0.04% on negative news before rising 1% the next day. The negative news hasn’t significantly catalyzed the market, so we’ll watch OpenAI’s progress before deciding whether to reduce positions. For now, we remain holders. $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) **Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected earnings.** The standout was its trading business, which set a new high. This stock is worth watching for two reasons: First, amid tariffs and frequent conflicts, trading revenue remains strong. Second, the upcoming "Great America Act"—featuring tax cuts and deregulation—will invigorate investment banks, boosting Goldman’s carry. With IPOs like Circle and more companies seeking Goldman’s primary market services, activity will only increase. Technically, Goldman has risen 50% since the tariff pullback, outperforming the Nasdaq’s 30% gain. However, gap theory suggests downside risks, with the nearest gap at 670 and another at 647-653. I’ll wait for a pullback to 670 before adding. Updates will follow in the group. $Circle(CRCL.US) The stablecoin leader surged 20% on Wednesday and another 0.81% yesterday, padding my account. I regret not buying more at 180—still struggling with discipline. Shelly previously analyzed Circle’s fundamentals and business model, maintaining a long-term bullish view. Review the article for details—good stocks are never too late. Wait for market mispricing to position. Simple as that. **Policy tailwinds are clear.** The House narrowly passed a procedural vote on crypto regulation. While not final, it’s now in the final review stage. One bill, the CLARITY Act, clarifies whether tokens are securities or commodities. Another, the Anti-CBDC Act, restricts the Fed from issuing a central bank digital currency, protecting private stablecoins like Circle. These developments are bullish for dollar-pegged stablecoin issuers. Currently, both retail and institutional investors are euphoric—any regulatory clarity is seen as a certainty bonus in this macro environment. **Often, we don’t need so much news—60% is noise. Check out \*Noise\*. I read it early in my trading career and didn’t fully grasp it then, but now it rings true: "More information isn’t always better. Without proper filtering, it breeds noise, clouding judgment." Trading is emotional, but professionals stay rational, executing plans and adhering to discipline.** **Quant models excel here, using signals to assess entry/exit points based on stats, backtests, win rates, and risk control—executing trades rationally.** [$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/NVDA.US)[$Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/TSLA.US)[$S&P 500 ETF - SPDR(SPY.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/SPY.US)[$Nasdaq-100 ETF - Invesco(QQQ.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/QQQ.US)[$S&P 500 ETF - SPDR(SPY.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/SPY.US)[$Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/.IXIC.US)[$Dow Jones (.DJI.US)](https://longportapp.cn/quote/.DJI.US) ### Related Stocks - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [07299.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07299.HK.md) - [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TMF.US.md) - [IN00380.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IN00380.US.md) - [20328.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/20328.HK.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [GS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-A.US.md) - [GS-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-C.US.md) - [GS-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [CRCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRCL.US.md) ## Comments (4) - **价值&核心&只买龙头 · 2025-07-18T10:26:01.000Z**: Any recommended quantitative models? - **ACCCCCC · 2025-07-18T09:46:10.000Z**: Shelly, the Genius Act has been passed, just waiting for Trump to sign it tonight. Once signed into effect, CRCL should surge tonight. - **财经俏佳人Shelly** (2025-07-18T12:37:22.000Z): Pre-market up 2 points