--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32421842.md" description: "Let's make a judgment. The positive news released tonight should not greatly exceed expectations. I see many people online discussing the base model starting at 24.8, but the expectations are not that high. Everyone should be realistic; the cost of car manufacturing is there, and the pre-sale price of L90 is already quite reasonable. This wave is because the price greatly exceeded everyone's expectations.The final price announced tonight should be within the range of meeting expectations or slightly exceeding them, including some optional configurations being offered as standard to show sincerity. I think this part will be full of sincerity, so there's no need to worry too much.I blindly guess that tonight's final price should have a space of 10,000, plus the pre-sale offer of 2,000 off 5,000 car price and 5,000 optional fund, totaling a space of 20,000. Overall, it's leaning towards positive news. I saw many people posting screenshots of group chats on Weibo yesterday, discussing the first month's delivery target. From the screenshots, it seems that the target of 7.5K to 8K is not a big problem.I want to talk about the continuous decline in the past few days. I guess there are two groups of people reducing their positions. One group is selling after the positive news is confirmed, seeking certainty; the other group is worried that subsequent deliveries will still be weak as before, choosing to step back and observe. I think there's no need to worry too much. People grow, and so do companies. After suffering so many losses, if they still suffer in the same place, then there's really no hope. From the actions and performance this year, I think this company is still worth giving a chance.But it also depends on whether you want excess returns or just ten to twenty percent. The corresponding risks are different.Based on the above judgment, tonight's announcement is likely to return to above 5 yuan, then fluctuate around the 5 yuan line waiting for the first month's delivery data. The delivery data in mid to late month will likely be reflected in the stock price.I added a bit during the pullback in the past few days, at 4.77 and 4.54, bringing the position to 130%+ of the target position, with the cost at 3.778. Not much, but it's all I have, and I trust my judgment." datetime: "2025-07-31T01:53:02.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32421842.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/32421842.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/32421842.md) author: "[10倍蔚来](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16845082.md)" --- # Let's make a judgment. The positive news released … ### Related Stocks - [NIO.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NIO.SG.md) - [09866.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09866.HK.md) - [NIO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NIO.US.md) ## Comments (16) - **实习猫 · 2025-08-27T00:29:13.000Z**: Target position 130%+, is it fully leveraged? 👍👏 - **10倍蔚来** (2025-08-27T00:35:13.000Z): Right - **10倍蔚来 · 2025-08-23T12:46:15.000Z**: The commentator came along with the double, let's record this.Now I dare not speak carelessly, why was I given a commentator role?Casual chat todayAccording to data from Weibo's Sun, there are already 30,000 small orders for the ES8, just in three days.There are also 60,000 large orders for the L90. - **10倍蔚来 · 2025-08-01T16:02:08.000Z**: $NIO Inc(NIO.US)No need to be so polite, huh? - **10倍蔚来 · 2025-08-01T05:43:37.000Z**: $NIO Inc(NIO.US) The night session rose to 5.03, which is basically in line with yesterday's prediction. Let's see the next node.1. First, we must wait for the delivery data of L90 (but the weekly data released by the media doesn't seem very accurate). It can serve as a rough reference. After 1-2 w - **新用户_8fzIm788** (2025-08-27T22:47:35.000Z): What's the current view? When is a good time to get on board? - **新zzh · 2025-07-31T08:25:44.000Z**: Bro, your vision is too narrow. I'm bullish on Nio breaking $60, even $100. - **10倍蔚来** (2025-07-31T09:31:19.000Z): I'll be burning incense and praying to Buddha if it reaches 30+. - **新zzh** (2025-07-31T09:31:56.000Z): Then you don't understand this company - **加油可达鸭 · 2025-07-31T01:57:41.000Z**: Looking at the recent trend, I'm afraid the press conference might bring negative news. - **10倍蔚来** (2025-07-31T02:08:31.000Z): The probability is quite low, irrational expectations are not within my consideration. - **加油可达鸭** (2025-07-31T02:09:52.000Z): On the night Li Auto made the announcement, the news of 320k in the friend circle was undoubtedly a great assist to the decline. - **10倍蔚来** (2025-07-31T02:16:12.000Z): Indeed, it's a bit rushed. The letter of intent has been obtained. The launch event is a process to promote and lock in orders. Ultimately, it depends on the delivery performance. The volume is not a