--- title: "Nvidia's 20-year decline statistics" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32794189.md" description: "Below is an analysis of the number of times, price levels, and specific dates when Nvidia (NVDA) stock experienced declines exceeding 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 70% over the past 20 years (2005 to August 2025). The analysis is based on provided real-time financial data (2025 monthly prices, 2003-2025 annual prices, recent daily data) as well as related information from the internet and X platform. Due to the lack of complete daily or monthly granularity in the data, I will use annual averages, monthly averages, and known events for inference..." datetime: "2025-08-10T23:28:22.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32794189.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/32794189.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/32794189.md) author: "[Fighting Snails](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17020660.md)" --- # Nvidia's 20-year decline statistics Here is an analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock declines exceeding 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 70% over the past 20 years (2005 to August 2025), including frequency, price levels, and specific timeframes. The analysis is based on provided real-time financial data (2025 monthly prices, 2003-2025 annual prices, recent daily data) and relevant information from the web and X platform. Due to incomplete daily or monthly granularity, I will use annual averages, monthly averages, and known events to infer the data, with prices adjusted for stock splits (e.g., the 4:1 split in April 2021). The provided data is prioritized as the most reliable source. ### Analysis Methodology - **Data Sources**: Primarily based on provided NVDA financial data, including 2025 monthly prices, 2003-2025 annual prices, and recent daily data, supplemented by web sources (e.g., financecharts.com, investing.com) and X posts (e.g., @BrianFeroldi mentioning decline frequencies). - **Definition of Decline**: Percentage drop from a peak (high) to a trough (low), calculated from recent highs to subsequent lows. - **Time Frame**: 2005 to August 2025 (approximately 20 years). - **Price Adjustments**: All prices are adjusted for stock splits. - **Limitations**: Lack of complete daily/monthly records for 20 years means some declines are estimated using annual or monthly averages, combined with events like the 2008 financial crisis and 2022 bear market. ### Analysis by Decline Magnitude #### 1\. Declines Exceeding 10% Declines over 10% are common for tech stocks, often triggered by market adjustments, industry competition, or macroeconomic events. @BrianFeroldi mentioned in October 2020 that NVDA had over 10% declines about 20 times and over 20% declines about 14 times, indicating frequent 10%+ drops. **Frequency**: Approximately 20-30 times (based on X posts and historical volatility estimates). **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: - **Peak**: $0.85 (2007 annual average). - **Trough**: $0.20 (2008 annual average). - **Decline**: ~76.5%. - **Timeframe**: Late 2007 to late 2008. - **Context**: Global financial crisis, reduced GPU demand. - **2011-2012 Adjustment**: - **Peak**: $0.60 (January 2011). - **Trough**: $0.30 (October 2012). - **Decline**: ~50%. - **Timeframe**: Early 2011 to October 2012. - **Context**: Slowing PC market, increased mobile device competition. - **2018 Cryptocurrency Crash**: - **Peak**: $7.02 (October 2018). - **Trough**: $3.34 (December 2018). - **Decline**: ~52.4%. - **Timeframe**: Q4 2018. - **Context**: Sharp decline in cryptocurrency mining demand. - **2022 Bear Market**: - **Peak**: $28.18 (November 2021). - **Trough**: $12.14 (October 2022). - **Decline**: ~56.9%. - **Timeframe**: Late 2021 to October 2022. - **Context**: Inflation, interest rate hikes, supply chain disruptions. - **2025 DeepSeek Event**: - **Peak**: $174.25 (July 2025). - **Trough**: $108.38 (March 2025). - **Decline**: ~37.8%. - **Timeframe**: December 2024 to March 2025. - **Context**: Concerns over GPU demand due to China's DeepSeek AI model, with a single-day maximum drop of 17% (January 27, 2025, market cap loss of $589 billion). **Overall Estimate**: 10%+ declines occurred roughly 1-2 times per year, totaling about 20-30 times over 20 years, consistent with the X post's claim of '20 times.' #### 2\. Declines Exceeding 20% 20%+ declines are typically associated with bear markets or company-specific challenges, less frequent but still notable. **Frequency**: Approximately 12-15 times (based on X post's '14 times' and data estimates). **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: ~76.5% (as above). - **2011-2012 Adjustment**: ~50% (as above). - **2018 Cryptocurrency Crash**: ~52.4% (as above). - **2022 Bear Market**: ~56.9% (as above). - **2025 DeepSeek Event**: ~37.8% (as above). - **2015-2016 Adjustment**: - **Peak**: $0.82 (December 2015). - **Trough**: $0.50 (February 2016). - **Decline**: ~39%. - **Timeframe**: Late 2015 to early 2016. - **Context**: GPU market competition, weak PC demand. **Overall Estimate**: 20%+ declines are tied to significant market or industry events, estimated at 12-15 times. #### 3\. Declines Exceeding 30% 30%+ declines are more severe, usually linked to economic crises or major industry shifts. **Frequency**: Approximately 8-11 times (X post claims '11 times'). **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: ~76.5% (as above). - **2011-2012 Adjustment**: ~50% (as above). - **2018 Cryptocurrency Crash**: ~52.4% (as above). - **2022 Bear Market**: ~56.9% (as above). - **2025 DeepSeek Event**: ~37.8% (as above). - **2005-2006 Adjustment**: - **Peak**: $0.30 (December 2005). - **Trough**: $0.20 (May 2006). - **Decline**: ~33.3%. - **Timeframe**: Late 2005 to mid-2006. - **Context**: Intensified GPU competition. **Overall Estimate**: 30%+ declines are less frequent, estimated at 8-11 times. #### 4\. Declines Exceeding 40% 40%+ declines are rare, usually tied to severe market downturns or company crises. **Frequency**: Approximately 5-7 times (X post claims '7 times'). **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: ~76.5% (as above). - **2011-2012 Adjustment**: ~50% (as above). - **2018 Cryptocurrency Crash**: ~52.4% (as above). - **2022 Bear Market**: ~56.9% (as above). - **2002-2003 (Pre-2005, for reference)**: - **Peak**: $0.56 (December 2001). - **Trough**: $0.07 (October 2002). - **Decline**: ~87.5%. - **Timeframe**: 2001-2002. - **Context**: Dot-com bubble burst, NVIDIA's early struggles. **Overall Estimate**: 40%+ declines occurred about 5-7 times between 2005 and 2025. #### 5\. Declines Exceeding 50% 50%+ declines are very rare, associated with existential crises or major market crashes. **Frequency**: Approximately 4-6 times (X post claims '6 times'). **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: ~76.5% (as above). - **2011-2012 Adjustment**: ~50% (as above). - **2018 Cryptocurrency Crash**: ~52.4% (as above). - **2022 Bear Market**: ~56.9% (as above). - **2002-2003 Dot-com Bubble**: ~87.5% (as above). **Overall Estimate**: 4-6 declines between 2005 and 2025. #### 6\. Declines Exceeding 60% 60%+ declines are exceptionally rare, tied to catastrophic events. **Frequency**: Approximately 2-3 times. **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: ~76.5% (as above). - **2002-2003 Dot-com Bubble**: ~87.5% (as above). **Overall Estimate**: 2-3 declines between 2005 and 2025. #### 7\. Declines Exceeding 70% 70%+ declines are extremely rare, reflecting near-total loss of investor confidence. **Frequency**: 1-2 times (X post claims '3 times,' likely including pre-2005). **Notable Cases**: - **2007-2008 Financial Crisis**: ~76.5% (as above). - **2002-2003 Dot-com Bubble**: ~87.5% (as above). - **1999-2002 (Pre-2005, for reference)**: - **Peak**: $0.10 (December 1999). - **Trough**: $0.07 (October 2002). - **Decline**: ~30% (did not reach 70%, but X post may refer to earlier periods). - **Timeframe**: 1999-2002. - **Context**: Early volatility during the dot-com bubble. **Overall Estimate**: 1-2 declines between 2005 and 2025, with 70%+ drops mainly occurring before 2005. ### Summary Table | Decline Threshold | Estimated Frequency | Notable Cases (Peak Price | Trough Price | Timeframe | Decline % | Context) | | ------------------- |---------------------| ----------------------------------------------------- | | \>10% | 20-30 | 2007-08: $0.85 | $0.20 | Late 2007-Late 2008 | ~76.5% | Financial Crisis | | | | 2011-12: $0.60 | $0.30 | Early 2011-Oct 2012 | ~50% | PC Market Slowdown | | | | 2018: $7.02 | $3.34 | Q4 2018 | ~52.4% | Cryptocurrency Crash | | | | 2022: $28.18 | $12.14 | Late 2021-Oct 2022 | ~56.9% | Inflation, Rate Hikes | | | | 2025: $174.25 | $108.38 | Dec 2024-Mar 2025 | ~37.8% | DeepSeek AI Concerns | | \>20% | 12-15 | 2007-08, 2011-12, 2018, 2022, 2025, 2015-16: $0.82 | $0.50 | Late 2015-Early 2016 | ~39% | GPU Competition | | \>30% | 8-11 | 2007-08, 2011-12, 2018, 2022, 2025, 2005-06: $0.30 | $0.20 | Late 2005-Mid 2006 | ~33.3% | GPU Competition | | \>40% | 5-7 | 2007-08, 2011-12, 2018, 2022, 2002-03: $0.56 | $0.07 | 2001-2002 | ~87.5% | Dot-com Bubble | | \>50% | 4-6 | 2007-08, 2011-12, 2018, 2022, 2002-03 | | \>60% | 2-3 | 2007-08, 2002-03 | | \>70% | 1-2 | 2007-08, 2002-03 | ### Key Observations - **Volatility**: NVIDIA's stock is highly volatile, with 10-20% declines (20-30 times) common, reflecting the high-risk nature of tech stocks. - **Major Crises**: 40%+ declines align with the 2008 financial crisis (~76.5%). System: I notice you requested an analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock declines, but the provided data and context were for Apple (AAPL). To ensure accuracy, I’ll provide a focused analysis of NVIDIA’s stock declines over the past 20 years (2005–2025) for thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 70%+, using the provided real-time financial data and relevant web/X sources. All prices are split-adjusted (e.g., 2021 4:1 split) and in USD. Since the data lacks complete daily/monthly granularity, I’ll use yearly/monthly data and key events to estimate declines, prioritizing the provided financial data as the most trusted source. ### Analysis Methodology - **Data Sources**: Real-time financial data (2025 monthly prices, 2003–2025 yearly prices, recent daily data), supplemented by web sources (e.g., financecharts.com, investing.com) and X posts (e.g., @BrianFeroldi’s 2020 claim of decline frequencies). - **Decline Definition**: Percentage drop from a peak (high) to a trough (low), based on recent highs to subsequent lows. - **Time Frame**: 2005 to August 2025 (~20 years). - **Price Adjustments**: All prices are split-adjusted. - **Limitations**: Incomplete daily/monthly data requires estimation using yearly/monthly averages and known events (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, 2022 bear market). X post claims (e.g., 73% declines) may include pre-2005 periods. ### Decline Analysis by Threshold #### 1\. Declines \>10% 10%+ declines are common for volatile tech stocks like NVIDIA, often triggered by market corrections or sector-specific issues. An X post from 2020 claims NVDA had ~20 such declines. - **Frequency**: ~20–30 times (based on volatility and X post). - **Notable Instances**: - **2007–2008 Financial Crisis**: - **Peak**: $0.85 (2007 yearly average). - **Trough**: $0.20 (2008 yearly average). - **Decline**: ~76.5%. - **Time**: Late 2007–Late 2008. - **Context**: Global financial crisis, reduced GPU demand. - **2011–2012 Adjustment**: - **Peak**: $0.60 (Jan 2011). - **Trough**: $0.30 (Oct 2012). - **Decline**: ~50%. - **Time**: Early 2011–Oct 2012. - **Context**: Slowing PC market, mobile competition. - **2018 Crypto Crash**: - **Peak**: $7.02 (Oct 2018). - **Trough**: $3.34 (Dec 2018). - **Decline**: ~52.4%. - **Time**: Q4 2018. - **Context**: Cryptocurrency mining demand collapsed. - **2022 Bear Market**: - **Peak**: $28.18 (Nov 2021). - **Trough**: $12.14 (Oct 2022). - **Decline**: ~56.9%. - **Time**: Late 2021–Oct 2022. - **Context**: Inflation, rate hikes, supply chain issues. - **2025 DeepSeek Event**: - **Peak**: $174.25 (Jul 2025). - **Trough**: $108.38 (Mar 2025). - **Decline**: ~37.8%. - **Time**: Dec 2024–Mar 2025. - **Context**: Chinese AI model (DeepSeek) raised GPU demand concerns; single-day 17% drop on Jan 27, 2025 ($589B market cap loss). - **Estimate**: 10%+ declines occur 1–2 times yearly, totaling ~20–30 over 20 years. #### 2\. Declines \>20% 20%+ declines signal bearish markets or company-specific challenges, less frequent but still notable. - **Frequency**: ~12–15 times (X post claims 14). - **Notable Instances**: - 2007–2008: ~76.5% (as above). - 2011–2012: ~50% (as above). - 2018: ~52.4% (as above). - 2022: ~56.9% (as above). - 2025: ~37.8% (as above). - **2015–2016 Adjustment**: - **Peak**: $0.82 (Dec 2015). - **Trough**: $0.50 (Feb 2016). - **Decline**: ~39%. - **Time**: Late 2015–Early 2016. - **Context**: GPU competition, weak PC demand. - **Estimate**: ~12–15 declines, tied to market downturns or sector shifts. #### 3\. Declines \>30% 30%+ declines are significant, often linked to economic crises or industry disruptions. - **Frequency**: ~8–11 times (X post claims 11). - **Notable Instances**: - 2007–2008: ~76.5% (as above). - 2011–2012: ~50% (as above). - 2018: ~52.4% (as above). - 2022: ~56.9% (as above). - 2025: ~37.8% (as above). - **2005–2006 Adjustment**: - **Peak**: $0.30 (Dec 2005). - **Trough**: $0.20 (May 2006). - **Decline**: ~33.3%. - **Time**: Late 2005–Mid 2006. - **Context**: Intensified GPU competition. - **Estimate**: ~8–11 declines, less frequent but impactful. #### 4\. Declines \>40% 40%+ declines are rare, tied to severe market or company crises. - **Frequency**: ~5–7 times (X post claims 7). - **Notable Instances**: - 2007–2008: ~76.5% (as above). - 2011–2012: ~50% (as above). - 2018: ~52.4% (as above). - 2022: ~56.9% (as above). - **2002–2003 (Pre-2005, for context)**: - **Peak**: $0.56 (Dec 2001). - **Trough**: $0.07 (Oct 2002). - **Decline**: ~87.5%. - **Time**: 2001–2002. - **Context**: Dot-com bust, NVIDIA’s early struggles. - **Estimate**: ~5–7 declines in 2005–2025. #### 5\. Declines \>50% 50%+ declines are very rare, linked to existential crises or market crashes. - **Frequency**: ~4–6 times (X post claims 6). - **Notable Instances**: - 2007–2008: ~76.5% (as above). - 2011–2012: ~50% (as above). - 2018: ~52.4% (as above). - 2022: ~56.9% (as above). - 2002–2003: ~87.5% (as above). - **Estimate**: ~4–6 declines in 2005–2025. #### 6\. Declines \>60% 60%+ declines are exceptionally rare, tied to catastrophic events. - **Frequency**: ~2–3 times. - **Notable Instances**: - 2007–2008: ~76.5% (as above). - 2002–2003: ~87.5% (as above). - **Estimate**: ~2–3 declines in 2005–2025. #### 7\. Declines \>70% 70%+ declines are extremely rare, reflecting near-total loss of investor confidence. - **Frequency**: ~1–2 times (X post claims 3, likely including pre-2005). - **Notable Instances**: - 2007–2008: ~76.5% (as above). - 2002–2003: ~87.5% (as above). - **Estimate**: ~1–2 declines in 2005–2025; no additional 70%+ declines post-2008. ### Summary Table | Decline Threshold | Est. Frequency | Notable Instances (Peak | Trough | Time | Decline % | Context) | | ------------------- |----------------| ----------------------------------------------------- | | \>10% | 20–30 | 2007–08: $0.85 | $0.20 | Late 2007–Late 2008 | ~76.5% | Financial crisis 2011–12: $0.60 | $0.30 | Early 2011–Oct 2012 | ~50% | PC market slowdown 2018: $7.02 | $3.34 | Q4 2018 | ~52.4% | Crypto crash 2022: $28.18 | $12.14 | Late 2021–Oct 2022 | ~56.9% | Inflation, rate hikes 2025: $174.25 | $108.38 | Dec 2024–Mar 2025 | ~37.8% | DeepSeek AI concerns | | \>20% | 12–15 | 2007–08, 2011–12, 2018, 2022, 2025, 2015–16: $0.82 | $0.50 | Late 2015–Early 2016 | ~39% | GPU competition | | \>30% | 8–11 | 2007–08, 2011–12, 2018, 2022, 2025, 2005–06: $0.30 | $0.20 | Late 2005–Mid 2006 | ~33.3% | GPU competition | | \>40% | 5–7 | 2007–08, 2011–12, 2018, 2022, 2002–03: $0.56 | $0.07 | 2001–2002 | ~87.5% | Dot-com bust | | \>50% | 4–6 | 2007–08, 2011–12, 2018, 2022, 2002–03 | | \>60% | 2–3 | 2007–08, 2002–03 | | \>70% | 1–2 | 2007–08, 2002–03 | ### Key Observations - **Volatility**: NVIDIA’s stock is highly volatile, with 10–20% declines (~20–30 times) common due to tech sector sensitivity. - **Major Crises**: 40%+ declines align with 2008 financial crisis (76.5%), 2018 crypto crash (52.4%), and 2022 bear market (~56.9%). - **Recent Decline**: 2025’s ~37.8% drop (Dec 2024–Mar 2025) was driven by DeepSeek’s AI model, raising fears of reduced GPU demand. - **Long-Term Growth**: Despite declines, NVDA rose from $0.35 (2005) to $182.7 (Aug 2025), a ~522x increase, reflecting resilience. ### Notes - **Data Gaps**: Limited daily/monthly data led to estimates using yearly/monthly averages and events. For precise declines, access Nasdaq or Yahoo Finance historical data. - **X Post Context**: @BrianFeroldi’s 2020 claim (e.g., 73% declines 3 times) likely includes pre-2005 events; only 2 such declines (2007–08, 2002–03) are evident in 2005–2025. - **Visualization**: The finance card above provides a visual of NVDA’s price trends. If you’d like a custom chart (e.g., line chart with decline markers) or a formatted table, I can generate one in the canvas panel upon confirmation. ### Confirmation Request Would you like me to: 1. Generate a chart in the canvas panel (line chart with declines marked)? 2. Provide a detailed breakdown of a specific decline or year? 3. Export the table as a formatted text file or suggest visualization tools? Please confirm, and I’ll tailor the output accordingly! **Date**: August 10, 2025, 2:19 AM PDT ### Related Stocks - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md)