Do you believe in the future of quantum computing?

HSBC said that by using IBM's Heron quantum processor, it achieved a 34% improvement in predicting the likelihood of a bond trading at a certain price.

McKinsey expects quantum computing revenue to grow to $72 billion in a decade, compared to just $4 billion in 2024.

🧠 Investment Thesis

• Quantum computing has a potential market size of hundreds of billions of dollars, covering cryptography, drug development, logistics optimization, AI, and more.
• Related companies are essentially long-dated call options: success means 10x returns, failure means long-term losses + dilution.
• Governments and cloud giants are investing heavily to ensure R&D and early applications.
• Risks are clear: uncertain technical paths, long commercialization timelines, and funding pressures.

⚡ IONQ — Industry Leader$IonQ(IONQ.US) 

• Tech: Trapped-ion qubits, long coherence time + high fidelity.
• Strengths: Strong partners (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Hyundai), first publicly traded pure-play quantum computing firm.
• Commercialization: 2023 revenue ~$22M, 2024 ~$43M, 2025E ~$90M.
• Financials: ~$550M cash, longest runway, ~$22.4B market cap.
• Positioning: The "index play" of quantum computing—expensive but most stable.

⚡ RGTI — High-Risk Small Cap$Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US) 

• Tech: Superconducting qubits, similar to Google/IBM.
• Strengths: DARPA/DoE contracts, small-cap volatility.
• Commercialization: 2023 revenue ~$12M, 2024 ~$11M, 2025E ~$8M.
• Financials: ~$45M cash, tight funding, ~$10.4B market cap.
• Positioning: High-risk lottery, execution challenges.

⚡ QBTS (D-Wave) — Alternative Path$D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) 

• Tech: Quantum annealing (optimization-focused, not universal QC).
• Strengths: Real customers in logistics, finance optimization.
• Commercialization: $8–10M annual revenue, some long-term orders. 2025E $25M.
• Financials: Tight cash, ~$9B market cap.
• Positioning: Niche player, may survive in its segment.

📌 Who’s Closer to Profitability?
• QBTS: Real customers → could turn small profits in 2–3Y, but limited upside.
• IONQ: Best long-term potential (5–7Y) via cloud clients/ecosystem.
• RGTI: Funding crunch, tech laggard, least likely near-term.