--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/35522633.md" description: "$POP MART(09992.HK) There have been too many ghost stories about Pop Mart recently.Pop Mart's Q3 net profit was 3.7 billion, and the full-year net profit for 2025 is expected to be around 12 billion RMB, which is basically an open secret. Based on the current market cap, the 2025 P/E ratio is 23.8x; if calculated based on the Q3 net profit of 3.7 billion, the dynamic P/E ratio is 19x.Even if the net profit growth rate in 2026 is only 35%, the full-year net profit for 2026 would still be at least 16.2 billion RMB, corresponding to a current P/E ratio of 17.6x.Wind's consensus earnings estimate is even higher than mine, at around 17 billion RMB in profit expectations, and this is still the result of some research reports not being updated based on Q3 performance expectations.As of last night, from October 21 to October 22, 18 brokerages issued research reports, 15 of which provided target price guidance.Even JPMorgan, which was the first to turn bearish, raised its target price from 300 yuan to 320 yuan and then to 350 yuan yesterday. So, in terms of value, are all the analysts in the market wrong, or is the market wrong?I think neither is wrong, because the market is often counterintuitive in the short term. For large institutions, their average holding period is over 12 months, so they hardly feel short-term fluctuations. For some foreign investment banks, it's a no-brainer to short squeeze the bullish warrants first and then push the cost even lower.The market is never wrong; the only ones wrong are those who follow short-term emotions. There's no yardstick for judging a company's value based on short-term fluctuations. When a stock rises, people are bullish on the company's future and can swallow any big story. When a stock falls, they think the whole market is full of ghost stories. But after all the ups and downs, the company's fundamentals haven't changed much.Let's take stock of Pop Mart's ghost stories. (Due to word limits, see the image.)Graham likened the market to an extremely emotional "Mr. Market." He shows up every day with a quote: sometimes he's optimistic and offers a high price; other times he's pessimistic and offers a low price. The investor's task is not to be swayed by his mood swings but to take advantage of them.Rising stocks increase risk rather than reduce it, and falling stocks reduce risk rather than increase it.Let’s encourage each other." datetime: "2025-10-23T07:40:34.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/35522633.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/35522633.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/35522633.md) author: "[猫大人的FIRE计划](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/20247653.md)" --- # $POP MART(09992.HK) There have been too many ghost… ### Related Stocks - [09992.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09992.HK.md) - [HPPD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HPPD.SG.md) ## Comments (12) - **SSerpens · 2025-10-24T06:29:46.000Z**: Technically, there's no support at all, and it's likely to break below 200 - **新用户_Kx8b9f。 · 2025-10-24T05:14:52.000Z**: Is it possible that the PE valuation for Pop Mart at this stage is inherently wrong? - **等月来1028 · 2025-10-24T04:07:29.000Z**: A consumer stock with a P/E ratio of 20-30x can only be considered reasonable, not undervalued. Moreover, the novelty of trendy toys will gradually fade. Most importantly, the current market trend is technology-driven national development. - **yimiao** (2025-10-24T05:14:35.000Z): Trendy toys lasting ten years is considered long-lasting - **文风子** (2025-10-24T06:10:17.000Z): Your TV and washing machine need to be replaced after a long time. Not to mention trendy items, do you think they won't release new models? - **等月来1028** (2025-10-24T06:15:06.000Z): My TV is just a decoration, it can last for ten years. Buy more toys and entertain yourself. - **RampUp · 2025-10-24T03:55:10.000Z**: Just short selling, always need a reason - **RampUp** (2025-10-24T03:56:51.000Z): Personally, I don't think it's much related to the fundamentals. There are ten thousand reasons to short. Besides, it seems there's a bit of volume contraction today, and the shorts might have covered - **选择相信需要投入更多** (2025-10-24T04:40:33.000Z): First, he miscalculated the P/E ratio! Capital voted with its feet, and investors didn't believe it and liquidated first! With such outstanding performance, why did the stock price plummet?! Last time - **Lewandowski** (2025-10-27T07:02:47.000Z): Do you fucking know what static P/E ratio is - **保持平和 · 2025-10-23T09:49:23.000Z · 👍 1**: One of the reasons why most Chinese concept stocks are not recognized by foreign investors is that they fail to tell a compelling overseas story. The current trend of the bubble looks very promising.A sharp drop without clear impact on fundamentals is just institutions dumping shares to pick up chea - **康康先森 · 2025-10-23T07:49:16.000Z**: It's good to get chips at a lower cost. Counterintuitively, everyone expects this earnings report to surge, which is perfect for short selling. 😂 Let's see the entry timing tomorrow.