---
title: "How unreliable is Burns' short report on Pop Mart?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36221901.md"
description: "$POP MART(09992.HK) The reasonable calculation logic should be: if based on the normal market's reasonable net profit CAGR of 24%, 30%, and 35% (corresponding to conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios) for the next 3 years, Bernstein's PEG=1 benchmark is still used for estimation. The forecasted earnings per share for 2026 under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios are HK$13.11, HK$13.74, and HK$14.27, respectively. (Currently, the consensus leading forecast for the 30-day net profit CAGR from 2026 to 2027 on Wind is around 35%, which shows my optimistic expectation..."
datetime: "2025-11-11T02:37:29.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36221901.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36221901.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36221901.md)
author: "[猫大人的FIRE计划](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/20247653.md)"
---

# How unreliable is Burns' short report on Pop Mart?

$POP MART(09992.HK) The reasonable calculation logic should be: if calculated based on the normal market's reasonable net profit CAGR of 24%, 30%, and 35% (corresponding to conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios) for the next three years, Bernstein's PEG=1 benchmark is still used for measurement. The forecasted earnings per share for 2026, from conservative to neutral to optimistic expectations, are HK$13.11, HK$13.74, and HK$14.27, respectively. (Currently, the 30-day consensus leading forecast for net profit CAGR from 2026 to 2027 on Wind is around 35%, which shows my optimistic expectation is closer to the neutral consensus expectation of brokerages.) The corresponding target prices for Pop Mart in 2026 are: Conservative target price: HK$327.75; Neutral target price: HK$412.20; Optimistic target price: HK$499.45.

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## Comments (1)

- **SSerpens · 2025-11-11T07:31:08.000Z**: Well-founded