--- title: "BMNR extreme value deduction 1118" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36457620.md" description: "Over the past week, market sentiment and the panic index have both fallen to lows, even lower than during the 4.7 tariff turmoil. BTC breaking below 90k and ETH below 3k are already facts. Under such market conditions, individual stocks have little chance of independent trends. As for BMNR, last week saw the end of SEC 13F filings, with many top institutions establishing new BMNR positions in Q3, including some big names. This indicates that institutional investors are indeed using BMNR as a way to invest in ETH. Meanwhile, BMNR has updated its management, with the CEO having collaborated with Tom Lee for many years..." datetime: "2025-11-18T04:20:45.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36457620.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36457620.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36457620.md) author: "[lyhalfway](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3372973.md)" --- # BMNR extreme value deduction 1118 Over the past week, market sentiment and the fear index have both fallen to lows, even lower than during the 4.7 tariff turmoil. BTC dropping below 90k and ETH below 3k are already a reality. Under such market conditions, individual stocks have little chance of independent performance. As for BMNR, last week marked the end of the SEC 13F filing disclosure, with many top institutions opening new BMNR positions in Q3, including some big names. This indicates that institutional investors are indeed using BMNR as a means to invest in ETH. At the same time, BMNR has updated its management team. The new CEO has collaborated with Tom Lee for many years and has a background in Hong Kong investment banking, which opens up possibilities for moonshots and new financing. However, the short-term outlook is not optimistic. Over the past week, BMNR's decline has exceeded ETH's, due to the rapid compression of mNAV premium, dropping from 1.2 to a low of 1.05 within a week. As mentioned in yesterday's post, this is a very dangerous situation because once the premium falls below 1, ATM financing will no longer be possible, and the coin accumulation progress will stall. Last week, only 50k ETH was added, but cash holdings increased from 380 million to 600 million, indicating that the company is preparing for more challenging conditions ahead. Future extreme scenario projections will also consider more pessimistic situations. Core assumptions: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 3.55 million coins, with only 50k added last week—a historical low. mNAV stands at 1.05, also a historical low, with cash on hand at 600 million. Although the average daily trading volume has rebounded to 1.7 billion, the financing quota has not increased due to the decline in premium. Here’s the logic behind my mNAV calculation: the core is the fully diluted share count. The September SCE filing disclosed the share count, which serves as the starting point for all calculations. Based on the weekly increase in ETH and changes in cash holdings, I derive the financing amount and then reverse-calculate the ATM-diluted share count based on trading day prices. This logic is applied weekly, with daily trading volume used for cross-validation. Currently, BMNR appears to be in a fierce battle between bulls and bears. The bears aim to suppress the premium, pushing the premium of top DATs below 1, thereby further depressing ETH prices sentimentally. In a market gripped by extreme panic, individual stock positives do little to reverse sentiment. Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.4k, mNAV will recover to 1.2, corresponding to a stock price of 40. If ETH falls to 2.8k, mNAV will drop below 1, corresponding to a stock price of 27. The extreme range is thus 27–40. The ETH ecosystem narrative is not a short-term trend. My plan to continue holding remains unchanged, though I’ve recently added put positions as a hedge—not investment advice. $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) ### Related Stocks - [BMNR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BMNR.US.md) - [BMNRD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BMNRD.US.md) - [BTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTC.US.md) - [DAT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DAT.US.md) ## Comments (19) - **用戶_EtjDls · 2025-11-18T14:29:08.000Z**: Sometimes institutions can't buy ETH directly, and BMNR is a good alternative at this time - **黄仁勋的交易员 · 2025-11-18T07:48:03.000Z**: It feels like Bitcoin is going to test the 70,000 point - **lyhalfway · 2025-11-18T07:32:32.000Z · 👍 5**: For the past period of time, I've been feeding my long-form analyses to Grok to verify my judgments and familiarize it with my analytical logic for deeper exchanges. Today's evaluation makes me wonder if the AI has become sentient and is deliberately saying nice things to me🤔 - **岸皙** (2025-11-18T08:52:11.000Z): AI always says nice things - **不奋东西** (2025-11-18T13:42:19.000Z): It feels like Grok has a tendency to please, let's try Gemini. - **金钱龟龟 · 2025-11-18T06:03:21.000Z · 👍 2**: If the crypto market corrects, it might take years to recover. - **藏马 · 2025-11-18T05:19:28.000Z · 👍 3**: Add a little more and just lie flat, can't add anymore, _(:зゝ∠)_😂 - **未来的交易员皮看穿 · 2025-11-18T05:13:50.000Z · 👍 2**: Support, add positions at the right time - **Nuclear-pow 驴 · 2025-11-18T05:10:03.000Z**: Uncle Yaren, is the current premium already below 1? Do you prefer a $600 million stock buyback or continue buying low-priced ETH? - **lyhalfway** (2025-11-18T05:19:20.000Z): I don't want to buy back stocks, I want to continue hoarding coins - **lyhalfway** (2025-11-18T05:20:57.000Z): Dynamically speaking, there will be times when it is below 1, but the US stock market is not open, these are all virtual values - **Nuclear-pow 驴** (2025-11-18T05:47:16.000Z): Oh okay, thanks for the explanation - **刘DC · 2025-11-18T04:46:50.000Z**: Too difficult - **Godview · 2025-11-18T04:45:32.000Z · 👍 1**: If liquidity doesn't improve continuously, it's going to be over - **花有重開日 · 2025-11-18T04:39:57.000Z**: Some people say the Bitcoin long-short ratio is close to three. Will it fall again? - **岸皙 · 2025-11-18T04:38:13.000Z · 👍 2**: Sleep when facing difficulties - **彼得.林奇的交易员Jeff · 2025-11-18T04:30:49.000Z · 👍 1**: The market hasn't stopped falling yet, crypto and stocks are too tough - **lyhalfway** (2025-11-18T04:36:02.000Z): Hmm, the market is really tough, there's nothing we can do - **用戶_EtjDls** (2025-11-18T14:29:46.000Z): When the big river has no water, the small river dries up