---
title: "HK-US Market Review (11.18) Global simultaneous decline? Don't panic, the underlying causes are clear"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36464076.md"
description: "Friends, today a friend said: "Why does it feel like the global market is falling?" I told him—this is not a "feeling", this is a fact. To be honest, this kind of scene where global stock markets and commodity markets are all in the red is really something I haven't seen in a long time. But it's not without reason; there are two main reasons behind it: the Federal Reserve and the Japanese government. 1. Federal Reserve: From "definitely cutting rates" to "uncertain" The most significant change in the market these past two days is the sudden collapse of rate-cut expectations. Previously, the probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in December was as high as 94%..."
datetime: "2025-11-18T09:00:40.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36464076.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36464076.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36464076.md)
author: "[海梦](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18202440.md)"
---

# HK-US Market Review (11.18) Global simultaneous decline? Don't panic, the underlying causes are clear

Friends, today a friend said: "Why does it feel like the global markets are all falling?" I told him—this is not a "feeling," this is a **fact**. To be honest, this kind of scenario where global stock markets and commodity markets are all in the red is something we haven’t seen in a long time. But it’s not without reason—there are two main factors behind it: the **Federal Reserve** and the **Japanese government**.

**1\. The Federal Reserve: From "Definitely Cutting Rates" to "Uncertain"**

The most significant change in the market over the past two days is the sudden collapse of rate-cut expectations. Previously, the probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in December was as high as 94%, but now it has dropped below 50%. What does this mean?—The market has gone from "definitely cutting" to "completely uncertain." Moreover, there is now a huge divergence within the Fed:

-   **Doves**: Cut rates by 50bp directly
-   **Hawks**: Inflation is too high; some even think no rate cuts are needed before the first half of 2026

In such a situation, how can global capital not panic? Liquidity was supposed to ease, but now it’s suddenly become uncertain, and it’s inevitable that global assets would come under pressure.

**2\. The Japanese Government: Forced Unwinding of Yen Carry Trades**

Another, more easily ignored reason is Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing to roll out a massive ¥17 trillion fiscal stimulus, even larger than last year’s. This is because Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank by 1.8%, and exports continue to weaken due to U.S. tariffs. As a result—the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds briefly surged to **1.75%**, nearing a record high since 2008.

This means:

-   Yen-denominated assets are becoming increasingly attractive
-   The cost of borrowing in yen is rising
-   Global funds engaged in "yen carry trades" are being forced to unwind

And what does unwinding mean? It means **selling all assets, converting them back to yen, and repaying debts**. So it’s a normal reaction for assets everywhere to fall together.

**3\. Short-Term Volatility Increases, But Long-Term Opportunities Remain Unchanged**

Although these macro factors are uncontrollable in the short term, remember one thing: **Fluctuations in Fed rate-cut expectations ≠ a change in direction.** The market is spooked in the short term, but easing is still the long-term trend. **Japan’s stimulus plan is still in the planning stage, and the current reaction is more emotional. China’s economy remains independent, and the long-term opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks still outweigh the risks.** In other words: this current drop is an emotional correction triggered by a concentration of macro factors, not a collapse.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) **: The trend isn’t broken; short-term volatility is just "collateral damage"**

The Hang Seng’s movement today is typical—the two factors above combined have increased the risk of uncontrollable short-term pullbacks. In the morning, I thought the 26,000 level would hold, but it continued to drop in the afternoon, so I immediately dug deeper into the reasons, which are the global factors mentioned above. But the core logic remains unchanged: **As long as the waves keep getting higher, there’s no need to worry about short-term fluctuations.**

**Hong Kong Stocks: A Buying Opportunity After the Macro Sell-Off**

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $JD-SW(09618.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) today’s declines were largely dragged down by macro factors. But I actually think: **Once the market stabilizes, this will be a great buying opportunity.** The logic isn’t broken; it’s just a macro hit to the rhythm.

**U.S. Stocks: Still Waiting for the Right Entry, No Forced Moves**

I remain patient with U.S. stocks for a simple reason: **There’s no suitable price.**

-   $Tesla(TSLA.US) : If I had to trade, shorting still seems more appropriate.
-   $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) : Still looking for shorting chances.
-   $Apple(AAPL.US) : I’m still holding my short position at 265.
-   $Amazon(AMZN.US) : After breaking below 230, we already took profits at 255 and are now just waiting for the next opportunity.

**A Quick Summary**

Today’s simultaneous global sell-off is **not an accident—it’s a chain reaction caused by the repricing of global liquidity.**

But—the long-term trend isn’t broken, and the future opportunities for Chinese assets still outweigh the risks. The short-term pullback is just a shakeout, not a change in direction. Individual stock logic remains solid, and U.S. stocks just need patience for the right entry. The market isn’t over yet; opportunities are just beginning.

### Related Stocks

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## Comments (1)

- **JZM · 2025-11-25T03:41:07.000Z**: What's going on with this AAC? It's already dropped to 37 and there's still no reaction!