---
title: "BMNR extreme value derivation 12.02"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36841759.md"
description: "The rebound trend of cryptocurrency was interrupted by the macro changes of Japan's interest rate hike on Monday, and ETH returned to the level of 2.8k. The sentiment in the crypto market has been very low recently, with MSTR at the center of attention due to institutional short-selling + index exclusion risks, as well as some comments positioning MSTR as the focal point of the battle for discourse power between old and new financial forces. I still admire MSTR's innovation. As a pioneer of the DAT model, MSTR also created a financing model of "selling bonds to hoard coins, selling stocks to repay debts." However, due to debt issues, as long as BTC doesn't rise, even if it remains flat..."
datetime: "2025-12-02T07:16:47.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36841759.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36841759.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36841759.md)
author: "[lyhalfway](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3372973.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36841759.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36841759.md)


# BMNR extreme value derivation 12.02

The rebound trend in cryptocurrency was interrupted by the macro change of Japan's interest rate hike on Monday, and ETH has returned to the 2.8k level. Crypto sentiment has been very low over the past period, with MSTR at the center of attention due to institutional shorting + index exclusion risks, as well as some comments positioning MSTR as the focal point of the battle for discourse power between old and new financial forces. I still highly appreciate MSTR's innovation. As a pioneer of the DAT model, MSTR has also pioneered a financing model of "selling bonds to hoard coins, selling stocks to repay debts." However, due to debt issues, as long as BTC doesn't rise, even if it remains flat, the debt interest will erode MSTR's value, similar to a BTC long call.

BMNR, on the other hand, is committed to maintaining a clean balance sheet. Without debt, there is no erosion. Even if it falls below the premium, it is equivalent to the ETF with the largest coin hoarding volume, and its scale of 3.7 million has also surpassed BlackRock's ETHA. Therefore, I judge that even if BMNR's mNAV falls below 1, it will quickly rebound, just like when ETH fell below 2.6k two weeks ago. The impact on sentiment caused BMNR to quickly fall to 26, with mNAV hitting a low of 0.93, but it soon rebounded to around 1.05. Next, we will continue to track mNAV to perform extreme value projections until the next coin hoarding progress update on 12.10.

Core assumption: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin hoarding progress, holding 3.72 million coins, with an increase of 97,000 last week. mNAV returned to 1.04, and cash on hand continued to grow to 880 million. It's worth noting that there were only 3.5 trading days last week, but BMNR was still able to accelerate coin hoarding while increasing cash on sale, all thanks to BMNR's liquidity recovery. The current average trading volume is 1.8 billion, returning to the average level of October.

Stock volatility is the source of liquidity. MSTR announced the establishment of a 1.4 billion reserve yesterday, and this 1.4 billion USD was raised through ATM financing in just 8 days (4.6% of trading volume). Currently, BMNR and MSTR together account for 92% of the trading volume of all DAT companies, up from 88% in October, indicating higher market concentration during a sluggish market. Tomorrow, ETH will undergo a major upgrade, which is a substantial improvement to ETH's fundamentals. There will also be a rate cut on 12.10, so I remain optimistic about the market outlook for December.

Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.2k, mNAV will rise to 1.1, corresponding to a stock price of 35; if ETH falls to 2.6k, mNAV will fall below 1, corresponding to a stock price of 25.5. The conclusion is that the extreme range is 25.5～35.

Not investment advice.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

### Related Stocks

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- [BITMINE IMMERSION TECNOLOGIES INC (BMNRD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BMNRD.US.md)
- [Strategy Inc (MSTR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSTR.US.md)
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- [Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMST.US.md)
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## Comments (39)

- **左侧+耐心 · 2025-12-07T15:10:12.000Z**: What does Yaren think about the 4-year cycle? If this Bitcoin 4-year cycle isn't broken, crypto will have to fall for 2 more years before recovering, and bmnr will also be hard to sustain.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-08T03:33:03.000Z): I don't quite agree with the four-year cycle, and I also believe that with the improvement of ETH's fundamentals, it will perform differently from BTC
- **趋势投机养家 · 2025-12-07T11:20:59.000Z**: Thanks for the sharing, boss
- **DBvoice · 2025-12-05T09:28:02.000Z**: Analysts at JP Morgan believe the possibility of MSTR being removed is very high. Are you worried about this?
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-05T10:02:00.000Z): I think the previous big drop has already priced in the worst-case scenario
- **赚钱钱回血血 · 2025-12-04T05:03:19.000Z**: Speechless, 3200 can't even reach 34
- **稳胜（不熟不做） · 2025-12-02T14:50:29.000Z**: Praise Only data-driven analysis is reliable, emotional venting is useless
- **成为富婆中 · 2025-12-02T14:42:05.000Z**: Brother, can you analyze Circle in depth?
  - **新用戶_nZne3U** (2025-12-02T15:02:01.000Z): It's better to switch to another target, crcl is basically useless and not worth buying
- **大揽教 · 2025-12-02T14:20:33.000Z · 👍 1**: Bro, what do you think about Fusaka coming out on the 3rd? I really want to hear your analysis.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-02T14:32:22.000Z): I'm looking forward to it
- **不要割我韭菜 · 2025-12-02T13:48:57.000Z**: Excuse me, is there still hope for sbet? I'm already down 75% 😭😭😭
- **Chouyer · 2025-12-02T08:26:34.000Z · 👍 19**: The biggest reason I believe in Uncle Yaren is that he has a sense of responsibility and won't disappear due to a market crash. No matter what voices are out there, he persists—a rare quality indeed. 🫡
  - **RH哥哥** (2025-12-02T09:14:43.000Z): Uncle has his own very deep thoughts that have formed a strong belief
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-02T09:26:37.000Z): Hmm, unless I find a major change in bmnr's fundamentals, the long-term plan remains unchanged.
  - **路壹飞** (2025-12-02T09:38:53.000Z): Haha, unlike who?
- **RH哥哥 · 2025-12-02T08:01:07.000Z · 👍 4**: It's okay to oscillate for a longer time, giving more time window to continue accumulating chips
- **外贸幼稚园 · 2025-12-02T07:58:50.000Z · 👍 3**: Brother Value $28 just came to this market... Don't let him get harvested too... After all, he hasn't been scammed yet
- **咸鱼哥哥 · 2025-12-02T07:34:33.000Z**: Has liquidity not improved recently? I don't feel any liquidity, it's even getting tighter.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-02T07:35:48.000Z): The overall market hasn't improved much, but the concentration of leading stocks has increased.
- **轩、 · 2025-12-02T07:33:58.000Z**: Get ready to write down everything I posted before in a notebook to study!
- **花有重開日 · 2025-12-02T07:30:08.000Z · 👍 4**: More and more optimistic
- **知行合一再投资 · 2025-12-02T07:27:52.000Z · 👍 1**: Another wave of opportunity🤓
- **菜就多练交易员 · 2025-12-02T07:23:54.000Z**: Bro, will you send it when you reduce the coin?
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-02T07:25:43.000Z): Didn't understand
  - **菜就多练交易员** (2025-12-02T07:26:38.000Z): I followed you in heavily investing in coin
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-02T07:28:33.000Z): You're mistaken, I don't hold any coin
- **财神爷的大孙子 · 2025-12-02T07:19:01.000Z**: Sigh😑