--- title: "RXRX 一周展望，By Grok" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36934711.md" description: "$Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.（RXRX）Weekly Report (2025.11.22-11.29) The extent of your achievements can largely be seen from how much pain you can endure..." datetime: "2025-12-05T04:16:21.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36934711.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36934711.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36934711.md) author: "[老板的老板 AI Exec](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/123.md)" --- # RXRX 一周展望，By Grok ### $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.（RXRX）Weekly Report (2025.11.22-11.29) _How much you can achieve can largely be seen from how much pain you can endure. Keep it up!_ **Report Date**: November 29, 2025 **Perspective**: Long-term value investor (focusing on platform moat, clinical execution, cash runway, partner validation, and structural opportunities in AI drug discovery) **Current Stock Price**: ~$4.3-$4.5 (flat for the week, slightly up 0.9%-1.5%, medium-high trading volume of ~16-20M shares/day) **Market Cap**: ~$2.0-2.2B **Cash Position (Latest Known)**: ~$785M as of October 2025 (post-Q3 earnings), runway until end of 2027 or longer (without additional financing) #### I. Key Events This Week (Only 1 Event Between 11.22-11.29) 1. **Nov 24-26: Issued 7.0887M shares to Tempus AI as annual data licensing fee payment, completed resale registration** - This is one of the regular payment methods under Recursion's 5-year data partnership with Tempus AI (signed in 2023, up to $160M total). - Using shares instead of cash demonstrates Recursion's cash discipline (avoiding unnecessary burn) while making Tempus a larger shareholder to align interests. - Long-term positive: Tempus owns the world's largest multimodal oncology dataset (\>20PB). Recursion essentially trades its shares for continued access—"low-cost acquisition of top-tier data moat"—directly strengthening Recursion OS's training data advantage in oncology. - Market reaction muted (no significant stock movement), indicating investors had priced in such equity payments. **No Other Major News This Week**: No new clinical data, milestone payments, or big pharma partnership announcements. The last major event remains the Nov 5 Q3 earnings and CEO transition announcement. #### II. Latest Corporate Narrative (Key Long-Term Investor Concerns) 1. **Leadership Transition Enters Execution Phase (Most Underrated Catalyst)** - Najat Khan (ex-J&J R&D lead) will officially become CEO in early 2026. - Recent coverage (STAT News, Seeking Alpha, etc.) highlights her execution style: "ambition + discipline," rapid go/no-go decisions, cost control (reduced 2025 cash burn guidance from $606M to ≤$450M, -35%), focusing only on "winnable areas." - Long-term investors value her big pharma background to shift Recursion from "cool tech but slow execution" to "industrialized, clinical-outcome-driven"—the core pain point behind its 3-year stock slump. 2. **Platform Validation Continues ($500M+ Milestones Banked)** - Roche/Genentech's $30M payment on Nov 5 (microglia whole-genome phenomap) brought Recursion's total upfront + milestone payments from partners to \>$500M ($213M Roche, $130M Sanofi, others from Bayer/Merck). - This isn't "selling data" but "repeated platform validation by big pharma." Each map proves Recursion's wet-lab + AI loop outperforms traditional CROs. 3. **Clinical Pipeline Progress (2025-2026 Is the Real Inflection Window)** - REC-4881 (MEK inhibitor, FAP): Phase 2 TUPELO topline data expected Dec 2025. - REC-617 (CDK7 inhibitor, solid tumors): Phase 1/2 MTD established, early antitumor signals positive. - Multiple other programs (e.g., REC-1245 RBM39 degrader) have key readouts in 2026. - Long-term view: Recursion isn't a single-product play but a "platform approach." Just 1-2 successful programs could trigger massive re-rating (like early CRISPR companies). #### III. Market Sentiment (X Platform Voices) - Retail investor sentiment: Sharply divided - Bulls (majority): Call $4.x "generational undervaluation," citing "Nvidia investment + BioHive-2 supercomputer," "65PB+ data scale," "Najat Khan's upcoming leadership," and "Genesis Mission (Trump's AI science EO) structurally benefiting AI+Science." - Bears: Criticize "cash-burning machine," "Cathie Wood's huge paper loss," "biology complexity underestimated—AI far from revolutionizing drug discovery." - Overall: Long-term bulls significantly outnumber short-term bears; many see $4.x as the "last window to board." #### IV. Institutional Moves & Views - No new 13F or major position changes reported last week (13Fs are quarterly). - Key holders: ARK (Cathie Wood, ~$15+ avg cost, deeply underwater but no clear selling), Nvidia ($50M 2023 strategic investment, no divestment). - Analyst takes (Nov 18-25): - Seeking Alpha: Puzzled by post-Q3 20% drop, calls new CEO + milestones + cost control severely undervalued. - Motley Fool (Nov 24): Names Recursion a "potential next AI megastock" given validation by Bayer/Sanofi/Roche/Merck/Nvidia. #### V. Long-Term Investment Thesis (2025.11.29 → 3-5 Years) **Core thesis isn't weakening—it's strengthening**: 1. Platform has moved from "proof-of-concept" to "repeated paid validation by big pharma" (\>$500M cumulative hard revenue). 2. New CEO likely solves historical execution issues. 3. Cash runway to end-2027, no major financing needed before 2026 (unless aggressive expansion). 4. Multiple clinical readouts in 2025-2026; any success could trigger 10x+ revaluation. 5. Current ~$2B market cap << cash + data assets + pipeline value → extremely high margin of safety. **Risks**: - Biology is complex; clinical failure rates remain high. - Stock may keep bleeding if no Phase 2 positive data by 2026. - Dilution risk persists (though significantly reduced). **Personal Conclusion (Long-Term Investor View)**: At $4.x, Recursion is one of the "best risk-reward" assets in AI+Biotech. It has passed the hardest "technical feasibility validation" phase—execution is key. Najat Khan's leadership + cost discipline + 2026 clinical catalysts form a powerful combo. Holding for 3-5 years will likely outperform most tech or traditional pharma plays. Allocation: Core-satellite (5-15%), accumulate below $4. This is my calmest and most bullish RXRX take. ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [RXRX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RXRX.US.md) - [TEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TEM.US.md) - [RHHBY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RHHBY.US.md) - [CRSP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRSP.US.md) - [MRK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRK.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [RHHVF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RHHVF.US.md) ## Comments (8) - **SmileTM · 2025-12-05T12:16:43.000Z**: REC-4881 should be out next Monday - **woaiguo8** (2025-12-17T20:06:20.000Z): Is the result out yet? - **椰丝不卷 · 2025-12-05T05:19:38.000Z**: RXRX also hides a hidden thread: the company's co-founder and board member, the current CEO Gibson's doctoral research lab supervisor—Dean Li, is also the president of Merck's R&D lab. Merck's core areas are tumor immunity and vaccines, which overlap with RXRX. Although governance due to conflic - **不奋东西 · 2025-12-05T04:31:01.000Z**: Is Banban working in the medical field? - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2025-12-05T04:35:24.000Z): no - **ai C N · 2025-12-05T04:30:31.000Z**: Is it worth buying now? ☺️ - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2025-12-05T04:35:38.000Z): You can have the answer yourself. Because you know yourself best. - **ai C N** (2025-12-05T04:38:47.000Z): Totally clueless, just following the big shots👻