---
title: "BMNR extreme value derivation 12.09"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36997561.md"
description: "After the sell-off triggered by Japan's interest rate hike last Monday, the crypto market quickly rebounded within 2 days, with ETH returning to the $3,100 level. Expectations of a December rate cut and the new Fed Chair's loose monetary policy have also made crypto a leading indicator of the rebound. BMNR's mNAV has also rebounded to 1.1+ after hitting bottom for 3 weeks. Recently, many comments mentioned the four-year cycle, and I'd like to share my perspective for reference: 1. I don't agree with the four-year cycle theory. The core logic is that after 2025, whether it's BTC or ETH, institutional holdings will grow rapidly..."
datetime: "2025-12-09T04:29:30.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36997561.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36997561.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/36997561.md)
author: "[lyhalfway](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3372973.md)"
---

# BMNR extreme value derivation 12.09

After the Japanese interest rate hike sell-off last Monday, cryptocurrencies rebounded quickly within 2 days, with ETH returning to the 3100 level. Expectations of a December rate cut and the new Fed chair's loose monetary policy have also made crypto a leading indicator of the rebound. BMNR's mNAV has also rebounded to 1.1+ after hitting bottom for 3 weeks. Recently, many comments mentioned the four-year cycle, and I’d like to share my perspective for reference:  
1\. I don’t agree with the four-year cycle theory. The core logic is that after entering 2025, the proportion of institutional holdings of both BTC and ETH has grown rapidly. From the launch in January 2024 to December 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of $57 billion; BlackRock’s ETHA has also become its highest-earning ETF product this year. Institutional holdings will be more long-term, which will hedge against retail and traditional crypto panic selling. On this point, we can wait for the SEC’s 13f update in February 2026 to see whether institutions (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, BlackRock, etc.) that aggressively built BMNR positions in Q3 exited or added in Q4.  
2\. I believe ETH’s ecosystem position in traditional financial on-chain applications will lead it to an independent trend different from BTC, which has nothing to do with the four-year cycle.  
Next, we’ll continue tracking mNAV for extreme value projections, with the next scheduled update on 12.15.

Core assumptions: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 3.86 million coins, with 138,000 added last week. mNAV rebounded to 1.14, and cash on hand grew to a record high of $1 billion. Last week, Tom Lee mentioned BMNR’s ETH accumulation strategy at a Binance forum. In early November, BMNR hired Tom DeMark as an advisor. DeMark predicted ETH would bottom in November and advised BMNR to slow its accumulation. As a result, BMNR’s accumulation dropped to 50,000 on 11.17, half of the previous week, but cash positions doubled. As ETH rebounded from the 2600 bottom, BMNR also accelerated accumulation, rising to 100,000 on 12.1 and nearly 140,000 last week. BMNR’s consistency in action will also boost confidence in the crypto market, and market participants influencing sentiment through their own impact.

Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.5k, mNAV will rise to 1.2, corresponding to a stock price of 42; if ETH falls to 2.9k, mNAV will drop below 1, corresponding to a stock price of 29. The extreme range is 29～42.

Not investment advice.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

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- [BLK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BLK.US.md)
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## Comments (20)

- **财富与自由 · 2025-12-12T04:49:50.000Z**: Does anyone understand ETH staking ETF?
- **彩宝 · 2025-12-09T16:32:21.000Z**: Is this Bitcoin, or
  - **新用戶_nZne3U** (2025-12-10T16:08:55.000Z): This is a Bitcoin-related company
- **飞奔葡萄酒 · 2025-12-09T14:06:02.000Z · 👍 1**: bmnr seems to be rising
- **安啦安啦 · 2025-12-09T07:36:17.000Z**: Thanks for sharing☺️
- **RH哥哥 · 2025-12-09T06:58:28.000Z**: Brother's organizing habits are so good, I always calculate a few numbers on the fly😂, I need to learn from him.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-09T07:09:59.000Z): Building a tracking model is part of my analytical framework📈
- **我是水水 · 2025-12-09T05:27:31.000Z**: 🐂🍺
- **哎呀 脚滑了 · 2025-12-09T05:11:24.000Z**: Learn
- **ONE-6.12 · 2025-12-09T04:57:08.000Z · 👍 1**: 40 is just around the corner, go for it
- **保持学习 · 2025-12-09T04:52:39.000Z**: Is it still suitable to add the 26-year 70 call for June 2018? Previously, the large position was in the January 70 call.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-09T04:59:17.000Z): Options carry risks, choose within your tolerance range
- **Andy的交易员 · 2025-12-09T04:37:57.000Z**: Let the bullet fly for a while
  - **Bullish** (2025-12-09T06:02:54.000Z): Me too😂cleared positions and wait-and-see
  - **Andy的交易员** (2025-12-09T06:21:34.000Z): hhh I think it's already priced in, I'm already half-positioned now, if you want to wait and see, you'll have to wait until Japan's interest rate hike is over to see the market reaction
  - **RH哥哥** (2025-12-09T07:02:32.000Z): Already liquidated?
- **人皆寻梦 · 2025-12-09T04:33:28.000Z · 👍 1**: I read the bmnr announcement, is there another change in executives? Or is that announcement just an explanation for the executive change in November?
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-09T04:36:38.000Z): There are two announcements: new executive appointments and hiring Demark
- **钱途无限小仙女 · 2025-12-09T04:32:18.000Z**: Got it😉