---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37349020.md"
description: "I fed the historical data of the tracking model BMNR to Gemini3 to analyze the correlation trends between BMNR, ETH, and mNAV, resulting in this chart that clearly reflects what happened to BMNR over the past six months. The previous judgment that BMNR's fair premium was around 1.2 was also confirmed in this chart:1. BMNR vs ETH (Correlation and Beta)Strong correlation: The blue line (BMNR) and the orange line (ETH) show highly overlapping trends, confirming that BMNR is a high-beta vehicle for ETH.Elasticity difference: Note in August, the blue line (BMNR) had a significantly steeper rise than ETH. That was the high-premium period (mNAV expansion), where BMNR delivered excess returns.Recent weakness: In December, the blue line started to look "heavier" than the orange line. When ETH attempted to rebound, BMNR's follow-up rise weakened, corresponding to the contraction in mNAV.2. mNAV Trend (Sentiment Indicator)Premium fading: The green line clearly shows a downward channel. From the crazy premium of 2.0 in August, it has now returned to around 1.05.Key support level: The red line in the chart marks mNAV = 1.0 (Parity). You can see that in the last two weeks (far right), the green line briefly touched or even dipped below this red line before barely recovering.Fair value pivot: The dotted line marks 1.2 (Fair Value). For most of September to November, mNAV was above 1.2, which was a healthy consolidation range. The current 1.05 is clearly in the undervalued/panic zone.$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)"
datetime: "2025-12-24T02:44:26.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37349020.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37349020.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37349020.md)
author: "[lyhalfway](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3372973.md)"
---

# I fed the historical data of the tracking model BM…


### Related Stocks

- [BMNR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BMNR.US.md)
- [BMNRD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BMNRD.US.md)

## Comments (47)

- **唧唧喵 · 2025-12-24T07:12:36.000Z**: Still holding mine? It's down -40 points. Currently, it seems that the pledge network will only rebound or look a bit better in mid-February when it's set up. I'll take a look at Uncle's analysis when I have time.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T07:36:58.000Z): Hmm, holding it
- **FakePhoenix · 2025-12-24T06:27:56.000Z**: Technically, as long as it doesn't fall below 24.33, it's still range-bound, and bmnr is forming higher lows which is acceptable
- **灾难始终慢我一步 · 2025-12-24T05:48:10.000Z · 👍 2**: I was thinking, what would be the effect of owning 5% of the US dollar? You could directly manipulate the market. Similarly, owning 5% of a currency is equivalent to being a market maker in A-shares. The first owner would form a moat under this monetary system. The only solution is if no one plays w
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T06:10:42.000Z): Yes, this is the sovereign put, and it's also the source of the premium generated when hoarding institutions reach a certain scale.
  - **灾难始终慢我一步** (2025-12-25T05:50:33.000Z): I always looked down on companies like bmnr, thinking it was just like putting cash in the bank to earn interest. But suddenly, I imagined what would happen if it were converted into USD, and the resu
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-25T06:00:34.000Z): This story makes sense depending on whether the underlying assets are hard currencies, such as the US dollar and oil you mentioned, of course they are. If the ETH narrative holds, serving as the under
- **大宇投资笔记 · 2025-12-24T05:35:04.000Z**: It is said that some coin hoarding institutions have already selling ETH
  - **kelvinaaa** (2025-12-24T05:44:28.000Z): Net outflow is huge, probably a big drop
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T05:48:58.000Z): $Ethzilla(ETHZ.US)is selling, but the combined holdings of all other DAT companies are less than 1/3 of BMNR's
  - **大宇投资笔记** (2025-12-24T06:26:01.000Z): Currently, the amount of money flowing into the crypto market is still small.This year, most of the funds have gone into precious metals.
- **不断学习，不断进步。 · 2025-12-24T03:36:42.000Z**: How big is the gap between Gemini 3 pro, Qianwen and Doubao? Why can't I subscribe to Gemini? It says my Google account address is not supported.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T03:44:23.000Z): I think the G3 pro is very easy to use, but I haven't used many domestic models, so I don't have much to compare it with.
  - **不断学习，不断进步。** (2025-12-24T03:44:50.000Z): Okay, thank you
- **爱吃菠萝包的猫 · 2025-12-24T03:32:33.000Z**: Gemini is still great to use. Uncle Yaren, I have an idea to trade around mNAV. After discussing with Gemini, it seems feasible, and institutions play this way too. I wonder if it's feasible for us retail investors.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T03:43:12.000Z): This is exactly how I operated, so I built a model to track mNAV, but recently there hasn't been any opportunity for me to sell when mNAV is above 1.5🤦
  - **爱吃菠萝包的猫** (2025-12-24T03:55:53.000Z): The best opportunity in the last two months was only around 1.2, which is frustrating
- **幸运币 · 2025-12-24T03:18:28.000Z · 👍 1**: 🤡🙌This is the consequence of not carefully reading the analysis, waiting to die in the sky🫠
- **钱途无限小仙女 · 2025-12-24T02:55:35.000Z**: Hurry up and turn red for the New Year hahaha
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T03:04:55.000Z): The conclusion of the MSCI resolution on 1.15 will be a major variable
  - **阿道夫的交易员** (2025-12-24T03:13:49.000Z): Bro, I posted the JPMorgan cryptocurrency closed-door meeting on December 23rd from gemini3 yesterday. Please take a look, I put the original video below. Institutions also seem a bit panicked, next m
  - **阿道夫的交易员** (2025-12-24T03:15:49.000Z): https://longbridge.cn/topics/37327055?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&share_track_id=b8b006b9-0f01-4112-bdfd-eb78a45564d0&invite-code=UILM43PR&locale=zh-CN&commun
- **龙头顺势而为 · 2025-12-24T02:54:56.000Z**: If you're bullish, why not hold the currency directly
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T03:01:08.000Z): I have it too
  - **不断学习，不断进步。** (2025-12-24T03:37:34.000Z): Which do you prefer, Bitcoin or ETH?
- **Ramsey · 2025-12-24T02:50:09.000Z · 👍 2**: ETH is not undervalued at this price, mindlessly hyping every day.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T02:53:47.000Z): No arguments, just block
  - **满仓pltr长持** (2025-12-24T03:09:11.000Z): Hahaha, I like this personality😂
  - **提钱退休小up** (2025-12-24T04:00:05.000Z): Beautiful👍
- **Asdfg · 2025-12-24T02:47:29.000Z · 👍 1**: Strange, the stock market has great positive news, but the crypto market is actually falling.
  - **lyhalfway** (2025-12-24T03:02:05.000Z): There are many reasons for this, the main one may be that liquidity hasn't rotated to the currency
  - **桓台红莲湖** (2025-12-24T03:44:54.000Z): Yes, gold is rising rapidly, but the crypto market has been stuck at this bottom level, and its liquidity can't be moved.
  - **kelvinaaa** (2025-12-24T05:28:01.000Z): I would like to ask when liquidity generally rotates to coins.