--- title: "Trump Tariff Taco Guide馃尞" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37915160.md" description: "As Trump once again wields the tariff stick against the EU over Greenland, investment firm Kobeissi Letter published an article summarizing market reactions after previous tariff disputes, providing this guidebook. Trump always starts with punitive and threatening messages, which is part of his negotiation tactics. Moreover, this move works well for him. In the October confrontation with China, it ended with the signing of a new trade agreement and China lifting restrictions on rare earth exports, which Trump said were harming the U.S. This time, the statement was released on a Saturday..." datetime: "2026-01-19T04:09:45.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37915160.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37915160.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37915160.md) author: "[lyhalfway](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3372973.md)" --- # Trump Tariff Taco Guide馃尞 As Trump once again wields the tariff stick against the EU over Greenland, the investment institution Kobeissi Letter published an article summarizing the market reactions after previous tariff disputes and provided this guide. Trump **always** starts with punitive and threatening messages, which is part of his negotiation tactics. Moreover, this move works well for him. In the October confrontation with China, it ended with the signing of a new trade agreement and China lifting its rare earth export restrictions, which Trump had said were harming the U.S. This time, the statement was released on Saturday, and market futures won鈥檛 open until Monday night (because Monday is a federal holiday). The market reaction may include similar "emotional sell-offs," but given time to digest the news, the impact may be milder. **All of this is part of President Trump鈥檚 "tariff strategy," which we will detail below:** **Tariff Strategy Handbook** In 2025, our investment strategy returns were almost double those of the S&P 500, largely because we capitalized early on asset price volatility during the trade war. Below are the specific counterstrategies we鈥檝e consistently employed: **A Comprehensive Step-by-Step Guide to Navigating Trump鈥檚 Trade Wars:** **Friday:** President Trump posts an ambiguous message hinting at tariffs on a specific country or industry. As uncertainty rises, markets decline. This episode began with Trump threatening tariffs on Denmark on Friday. **Later that day or shortly after (this time, Saturday):** President Trump announces a massive new tariff, usually above 25%. **Saturday and Sunday:** President Trump escalates tariff threats repeatedly during market closures to maximize psychological pressure. **Over the weekend:** Targeted countries typically respond publicly or signal willingness to negotiate. **Sunday at 6 PM ET (this time, Monday night):** Futures open, and the market reacts emotionally to tariff headlines, with futures prices dropping. **Monday and Tuesday:** President Trump continues public pressure, but investors begin to realize the tariffs aren鈥檛 yet in effect and won鈥檛 be implemented (e.g., February 1) for weeks. **Wednesday of the same week:** Bottom-fishers step in, triggering a relief rally, but this momentum often fades, leading to another decline. This is usually when "smart money" starts buying. **The following weekend (~1 week later):** President Trump posts that negotiations are underway and he鈥檚 working with the target country鈥檚 leaders to find a solution. **Sunday at 6 PM ET that weekend:** Futures open sharply higher as optimism returns, but gains fade after Monday鈥檚 spot market opening. **After Monday鈥檚 opening:** Senior officials like Treasury Secretary **Bessent** appear on live TV to reassure investors and highlight progress in the deal. **Next 2-4 weeks:** Trump administration officials at all levels continue to leak updates on the trade deal. **Finally:** The trade deal is officially announced, and markets hit all-time highs. **Cycle:** Repeat from Step 1. Of course, this isn鈥檛 a 100% guaranteed roadmap, but based on our experience, almost all trade war escalations since January 2025 have followed roughly the same path. > **Note:** This time, President Trump鈥檚 plan to acquire Greenland is undoubtedly more ambitious than demanding China cut export controls. Thus, the execution of this strategy may take longer, but it will follow a similar sequence of events. **Timing Is Key** President Trump鈥檚 entire negotiation strategy revolves around **timing** and **pressure**. He provides a 2-3 week buffer before tariffs take effect to allow for a deal. Trump鈥檚 goal is for these tariffs **never** to actually take effect鈥攈e wants a deal. This also explains why these announcements increasingly occur on weekends when markets are closed. He pushes threats to the edge. That鈥檚 why they work: If they were ever implemented and sustained, they鈥檇 have the power to shake markets and change the world. In the last round of trade wars with China, President Trump announced a new trade deal with China on November 1鈥攖he very day 100% tariffs were originally set to take effect. ### Related Stocks - [VOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOOG.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) ## Comments (14) - **鑰佺綏鍚屽 路 2026-01-20T07:25:26.000Z**: It's rare to see a golden pit, looking forward to a silver pit before the seven sisters' quarterly report馃槀 - **SSerpens 路 2026-01-20T06:51:37.000Z**: Chuanzi has been thoroughly researched - **lyhalfway 路 2026-01-20T06:29:17.000Z**: Trump said that he had a "very good call" with the NATO Secretary General regarding the Greenland issue and has agreed to meet with all parties in Switzerland.Now entering Step8: "Trump posted that negotiations are ongoing, and he is working with the leaders of the target countries to se - **ricky.sun 路 2026-01-19T12:23:20.000Z 路 馃憤 2**: I'm actually worried that it didn't fall much and rose directly during the session. Considering if the night session has enough decline, I'll start adding positions directly. - **SourceCode 路 2026-01-19T05:59:41.000Z 路 馃憤 2**: The stock market is not a concern, but I'm worried about another stampede like 10.11 in the crypto circle... - **Erstwhile 路 2026-01-19T05:48:20.000Z**: Much ado about nothing - **濂介 路 2026-01-19T05:43:06.000Z 路 馃憤 2**: The government is going to shut down - **鍩烘偿澶編 路 2026-01-19T04:54:05.000Z 路 馃憤 1**: Awesome馃憤馃徎 - **stallioN绉嶉┈ 路 2026-01-19T04:35:28.000Z 路 馃憤 2**: Learned something馃槂 Uncle's news is still informative - **绾㈡爲琛椾氦鏄撳憳鏉庡崕 路 2026-01-19T04:35:21.000Z 路 馃憤 1**: Calm and unruffled, the heart is as still as water reflecting clarity - **鐩镐俊姒傜巼 路 2026-01-19T04:21:19.000Z 路 馃憤 6**: I think we don't need to care, it's a small matter, everyone will forget about it after a few days of negotiation - **lyhalfway** (2026-01-19T04:24:53.000Z): Hmm, I think so too - **RH鍝ュ摜 路 2026-01-19T04:12:17.000Z 路 馃憤 2**: I'm not worried about tariffs, but I'm concerned that if the relationship between the U.S. and the EU becomes tense, Palantir's business expansion in the EU will be affected, and the other party won't dare to use the products and services of U.S. defense companies anymore. - **lyhalfway** (2026-01-19T04:13:44.000Z): Don't worry, the EU is more afraid of losing NATO than the US