---
title: "Let's Chat Didi Again: Risk-Reward Ratio Looks Good"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/3850194.md"
description: "DAU and market share of orders have been basically verified: DiDi has been taken down for a year and a half, and no real competitors have challenged it. Currently, the market share remains stable at just over 80%."
datetime: "2023-01-11T10:08:40.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/3850194.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/3850194.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/3850194.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# Let's Chat Didi Again: Risk-Reward Ratio Looks Good

Tools, like apps, that do not have entertainment and leisure functions usually open with a very clear intention of placing an order, so the DAU of the app largely represents the user's intention to place an order that day.

1.  After Didi was removed from all networks in July 2021 from the perspective of market share of app DAU, T3 and Didia have gained a certain market share, but currently T3 has continuously declined in market share, and Didia has remained stable at around 9%. Didi has declined from 85% to its current 80%.

1.  According to current data from the Ministry of Transport, the market share of the online ride-hailing orders was about 90% before it was removed, and dropped to between 80% and 81% within about ten months after it was removed, and the market share has now stabilized at this level this year.

The market share of DAU and orders is generally the same in verification: Didi has been removed for a year and a half, and no real competitors have emerged to challenge it. Its market share has stabilized.

Perhaps it has weak profitability, but its natural monopoly barrier is still very obvious. Such a monopoly position also means that after returning to normal operations, subsidies for passengers may still have a certain decrease, and the actual commission rate for domestic online ride-hailing may return to around 8-10%. Correspondingly, the annual operating profit is also conservative at between 10-15 billion after deducting taxes. With a normal valuation of 20 times, the conservative valuation should also be US$30 billion. Didi is currently valued at US$20 billion.

There are currently two core issues with Didi: restoration and secondary listing. If Didi's market value can rise from US$20 billion to US$30 billion in six months, which is the period of its restoration, this return on investment of 50% in six months doesn't seem too bad. Dolphin Analyst has taken Didi out of the observation warehouse and put it into the holding pool with a low configuration for now.

### Related Stocks

- [DIDIY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIDIY.US.md)

## Comments (8)

- **Dolphin Research · 2023-01-13T05:16:10.000Z**: 1 月 13 日外媒引用了五个消息人士的话报道说，下周滴滴的 app 们就会上架了。要起飞了？
  - **远安一路** (2023-01-13T07:17:18.000Z): 哪个外媒？
  - **Dolphin Research** (2023-01-13T07:25:44.000Z): 路透
  - **远安一路** (2023-01-13T07:41:19.000Z): 今天的消息么？
- **NIGG_May · 2023-01-11T10:55:40.000Z**: 滴滴的忠实用户，就专车体验而言其他平台提供不了同级别的供应量，只有滴滴可以保证服务同时可以快速约到车
  - **花甲** (2023-01-12T05:00:53.000Z): 年初去了个二三线城市，才发现美团打车出了一线连产品都没做好，因为上了车想改目的地，美团打车连这个基本功能都没有，奇葩。
  - **Alan J** (2023-01-13T08:23:27.000Z): 高德这类的更差，本来这些 app 在低线的城市做的就比较差，高德是调用这些功能的接口，体验会变得更加差、功能会更加少。而且高德对于实际承运的司机（所谓聚合平台就是导流给了其他服务商）更没有掌控力，投诉完全没用管不了，只能拿点优惠券息事宁人